RU POV: Russian advances from Day 940 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Following on from the new Russian attacks on the Oskil River front, mentioned in this update, Russian assault groups have continued making quick progress west, and captured most of the village of Nevske, as well as several fields, over the past 2 days. There was a small attempt by Ukraine to undo or stall Russian forces here, made up of a few individual vehicles, but it failed. Reiterating what I said last time, this part of the Oskil River front has been mostly quiet for several months, but Ukraine’s removal of the 21st Mech Brigade has weakened their line here enough for Russia to launch these attacks.

Combined with Russian advances in Makiivka (mentioned here), which is at the top of this map, Ukrainian troops between the 2 villages have found themselves surrounded on 3 sides. Whilst there are still 3 crossings over the Zherebets River, and its thin enough that an unburdened soldier could swim across, Ukraine will likely have to abandon the large area between the towns in order to avoid troops being unnecessarily cut off, as well as to take up more defensible positions west of the river.

On the Toretsk front, as mentioned yesterday, heavy clashes were ongoing in the centre of the town, with Russian troops confirmed to have captured most of the large apartment buildings there today. With this advance Russia is threatening to cut the town in 2, with the goal of isolating the southern area to force a Ukrainian retreat.

This will still take some time for Russia to achieve, and their positions in central Toretsk are currently quite precarious due to the narrow route linking them to their supplies. From here Russia will likely try to expand their spearhead southwest and northeast, in order to secure their flanks and lower the chance of them being cut off.

To the southwest, Russian assault groups have launched a rapid attack out of Niu-York, capturing part of southern Leonidivka. This deep advance was possible due to how sparse the area between Niu-York and Leonidivka is, with none of the standard treelines that you find everywhere else in Ukraine, only individual separated trees. This meant that Russian troops did not have to worry about Ukrainians being anywhere except in Leonidivka, and so could rush all the way up the road and land on the southern side. There is a video of this advance, however it hasn’t been posted to the sub as of writing this.

The Kryvyi Torets River on the eastern side of Leonidivka will hinder Ukrainian attempts to cut these Russian troops off, so they should be able to secure the village and surrounding fields. The route is still quite exposed to fire from northern houses of Nelipivka, so it will not just be smooth sailing for Russian forces, at least until they can secure some of the fields west of this advance.

On the Pokrovsk front, Russian troops made advances in several areas. On the north side, Russia finally captured most of the last few dispersed buildings in Hrodivka, with the remaining few now in the greyzone. Ukrainian troops are occupying the defence line just north of Hrodivka, which is the final one before the city of Myrnohrad. This will be the next target for Russian units in this area.

To the south, Russian forces advanced out of Novohrodivka to the west, capturing the slag heap and surrounding buildings. Ukraine has been counterattacking in this area over the past few days, notably with multiple Bradleys, however these were wiped out or driven back by Russian drone and ATGM teams in Novohrodivka (Video 1, Video 2, Video 3).

Further south, Russian troops advanced out of Ukrainsk to the west, capturing the abandoned mine complex and one of the trench networks in the field. Ukraine did try counterattack here with 2 tanks, however it was defeated/driven back.

With the previous 2 advances, what has been mentioned/alluded to by many sources (and myself) has all but been confirmed; Russia is trying to encircle Selydove. Between the slag heaps next to Novohrodivka and Ukrainsk, Russian can station ATGM teams to provide cover for their advances west, as well as strike Ukrainian vehicles heading out of Selydove. Due to the areas north and south of Selydove being mostly fields with only the occasional trench network, Russia will be able to progressively advance one treeline at a time, with the goal of eventually cutting Selydove off from supply (pic below).

Following on from yesterday’s update, Russian troops won the clashes in Hostre and the prison, capturing the remainder of both. As I predicted, Ukrainian troops in this area were forced to pull back south over the Osykova River, laving most of the fields around Hostre and the prison in the greyzone. It will be difficult for Ukraine to retake this area, as its troops can only reach it via 3 bridges on different sides, providing an easy funnel for Russia to observe and strike crossing troops.

From here, Russian forces will likely expand their control over the fields around Hostre, before moving west. Its unlikely that they will cross the Vovcha River in this area, or head south into Maksymilyanivka, due to the same reasons that applied to Ukraine above. They can however take up positions on the hills overlooking Maksymilyanivka, and fire down onto Ukrainian troops in the town.

On the Vuhledar front, following on from their advance yesterday, Russian troops expanded their control of the fields north of the Kashlahach River, capturing some more Ukrainian positions.

On the Velikaya Novoselovka front, Russian troops made a small advance north of Staromaiorkse, reaching the southern outskirts of the village of Makarivka. This advance involved relatively few troops, but a proper assault on Makarivka is likely to occur in the coming days.

In the (former) Robotyn salient, Russian forces continued making gradual progress in driving Ukraine back, capturing a few more fields. Russia is getting close to completely undoing the Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive progress in this area, but it will still take a while longer due to how heavily mined and devastated the landscape is (pic below).

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Additional Point:

· Ukraine’s control of Kursk currently sits at 669.49km2. Ukraine’s maximum control in Kursk was approximately 930km2, short of their initial claim of 1000km2, and well below their revised claim of 1300km2.