RU POV: Russian advances from Day 950 and 951 of the War - Suriyakmaps

The big news of this update, and really the whole week, was the confirmation that Russia has captured Vuhledar (Ugledar). This happened in the morning of Day 951, as the last Ukrainian troops in the town either surrendered or tried to flee (following the last minute permission to retreat 1.5 days before). The actual advance compared to the previous update is in a picture below.

To address the elephant in the room; what happened to the 500-1000 Ukrainian troops who were in and around Vuhledar in the last week? As is typical of this war, reports by both Russian and Ukrainian sources were all over the place, with claims of hundreds of POWs (but they won’t show them) on one side, and assertions that most Ukrainian troops escaped due to Russians not noticing the retreat on the other.

But filtering out the absurdist statements, there is a very clear picture described and shown in the reports (both UA and RU) and videos that we have so far; most of the Ukrainian troops didn’t make it out of the pocket. As seen in the videos I have linked in previous reports (as well as this and this), Russia was shown to be heavily striking anything that moved in and around Vuhledar, destroying evacuation transports and killing the soldiers who tried to flee on foot. This article has some chilling first hand accounts from a Ukrainian soldier of what they faced. Even more shocking have been the reports coming from Ukrainian soldiers in the 72nd Brigade, with multiple Ukrainian sources now reporting that most of the 72nd Mechanised Brigade was wiped out. One soldier from the Brigade said on Telegram that only 30 people survived out of the 350 in his battalion, and the other battalions and units in the area suffered a similar fate. Another soldier mentioned on Facebook that of the 50 conscripts that arrived to reinforce his unit, only 4 actually made it to the front lines, as the rest were either unfit to fight (being old and sick), deserted, or were wounded.

Whilst the above is catastrophic for Ukraine, losing a significant number of troops and a fortified town that has held for years, I can’t say this is unexpected. If you’ve paid attention to my analysis and updates, you’ll know I’ve been reinforcing for almost a week now that Ukraine left it too late to leave, and the remaining troops were essentially doomed. I also predicted that Vuhledar would fall within 1 week, which ended up occurring almost exactly 7 days after I mentioned it.

As for what happens next, Russian troops will likely spend a few days/a week properly clearing out all of Vuhledar, whilst other units prepare for their next moves. Their targets will almost certainly be Bohoyavlenka and Novoukrainka, 2 towns situated in the fields north and northwest of Vuhledar respectively. Russia has already begun moving in on the forming, with an advance to the west mentioned in the last update. Russia will need to get a move on, as whilst the weather has been very good for them, the Autumn rains will not stay away forever, and this area is made up of almost entirely dirt roads of open fields (i.e. lots of mud). If Russia can capture, or at least reach both towns before the weather turns for the worse, they will be able set themselves up to cut the main road between Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka, both key supply hubs (pic below).

As part of Russia’s Oskil River campaign, they have opened up yet another new direction of attack, crossing the Zherebets River at Anriivka (red dot under y, just some farms), and assaulting deep into Ukrainian territory towards the village of Vyshneve. Russian sources claimed they captured the entire village in the same assaults, although that part of the advance could not be confirmed. The village remains in the greyzone until control by either side can be proven.

This attack comes as part of Russia’s strategy of rotating its direction of attack, which I have spoken about many times before, and will likely mention many times more. By exploiting Ukraine’s weak front lines that require units to be shifted from one place to another to stop advances, Russia can continually advance small amounts at a time, moving their focus to another area once they run into an obstacle or Ukraine moves another unit to reinforce.

On the Pokrovsk front, Russian troops advanced west in Mykolaivka, capturing the remainder of the village and part of the forest area. Whilst they are only 1.7km away from the outskirts of Myrnohrad, Russia will likely still spend the foreseeable future reinforcing their positions and expanding their control of the fields and forests south and east of the city.

On the Kursk front, to the North Russian assault groups pushing Ukraine back from their forward positions, retaking the villages of Khitrovka and Novosyolovka (red dots in outline). Fighting in these areas remains slow, as most of it is done by drones, artillery and FABs, over days, before mechanised groups and infantry try dart forward into the opposing side’s forest areas that litter the countryside.

To the west, Russian troops were confirmed to have retaken part of the fields and treelines east of Veseloe (some losses seen here). The northern and western side of this advance is the part that I mentioned I disagreed with Suriyak on in the update a few days ago, with Suriyak correcting it now to show Russia still in control of Veseloe. Ukraine still hasn’t given up on its attacks in this area, and will likely try further assaults in their attempts to take Veseloe.

Over in Toretsk, Russian troops made a small bit of progress in the town centre, capturing the apartment buildings and houses on the south side of the central road. Clashes continue throughout the town, as Ukraine tries to stop Russian troops expanding their control.

To the southwest, Russian troops continued advancing along the railway north of Niu-York, capturing part of it and establishing a foothold on the southern side of Shcherbynivka. Unlike most other settlements I’ve spoken about, this foothold is a lot more tenuous as the southern side of Shcherbynivka is one long road stretching for several km, and thus actually reaching Shcherbynivka proper will still take Russian troops some time. This advance also partially isolates Ukrainian troops in the waste treatment plant (east of this advance, under the r), with them likely to retreat over the coming days to avoid encirclement.

On the Oskil River front, expanding on their progress over the last week, Russian troops continued advancing around Makiivka, increasing the buffer around the village by capturing the western hills. It is quite awkward for Ukraine to contest this area due to the Tekuch River, which whilst very small, complicates the movement of troops and vehicles here.

On the Selydove/Kurakhove front, Russian troops continued making progress around Tsukuryne (red dot under r), capturing the slag heap next to the mine they took yesterday, as well as some of the surrounding fields. In an unexpected move, rather than solidify their positions in the mine complex, or focus on capturing Tsukuryne, Russia instead launched assaults towards Novoselydivka, where clashes are currently taking place.

This is very risky, as Ukrainian troops in Hirnyk and Tsukuryne are able to fire upon the assault groups as the cross the fields between the mine and Novoselydivka. However, if Russia is successful here, they will cut 1 of the last 2 supply routes for Ukrainian troops on this front, leaving them with only the dirt paths that travel past the mine next to Kurakhivka (pic below).

On the Robotyne front, Russian troops made a small advance on the east side, capturing 2 fields and a trench network. I won’t redraw the map of area Russia has to retake here again, but see this comment for the previous one.

Additional Point:

· Ukraine’s control of Kursk currently sits at 657.46km2. Ukraine’s maximum control in Kursk was approximately 930km2, short of their initial claim of 1000km2, and well below their revised claim of 1300km2.