RU POV: Russian advances from Day 952 and 953 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Starting off with a weird one, we’re on the Siversk front, east of the town. A few days ago the Russian MoD made a surprise announcement, claiming Russian troops had captured Verkhnokamyanske (red dot above r). This puzzled a lot of people, as there has been virtually no movement in this area for months, and essentially no footage from either Russia or Ukraine seen to show what the Russian MoD claim was a 4.5km advance.

Since the announcement the situation here was clarified. Russian troops in this area started becoming more active at the beginning of October, and launched unexpected assaults that allowed them to capture multiple trenches, fields, and the eastern side of Verkhnokamyanske. They did not capture the whole village however, as the Russian MoD claims, and clashes are still ongoing in the central section.

Verkhnokamyanske is notable as it’s the last settlement on the eastern side of this front before Siversk, which is the key hub/base for Ukrainian operations here. An attack on Siversk is still a long way off however, as this front is very well defended, and there are many defences between Siversk and the front line that Russia still has to get through.

On the Kurakhove front, over the past few days, following their capture of Hostre (red dot under m) and the prison (under k) 2 weeks ago, Russian troops have expanded their control over the surrounding hills and fields, as I mentioned they would. They have also employed their favourite tactic of using the railway line trees as cover to push further into Ukrainian territory, and were confirmed to have entered the eastern side of Ostrivske. Ukraine has been slowly evacuating its troops from this area, back over the Vovcha river to the north, or over the Osykova River to the south, as it has become too difficult to contest this area.

Ukraine still has some troops here however, particularly on the far western side, but these are mostly small groups of infantry being supplied via boats (as the railway bridge was destroyed long ago). This does not mean it is a walk in the park for Russia however, as Ukraine is still harassing them and their assault groups with many different drones, launched from multiple sides. Whilst Russia is unlikely to try cross the Vovcha river and break the Ukrainian defence line there, they can capture the southern side of this area in order to fire down on Ukrainian supplies and troops sent to Maksymilyanivka, which would make holding the settlement difficult for Ukraine (pic below).

On the Oskil River front, over the past few days Russian troops have continued their attacks on the west side of the salient, capturing multiple fields, a few trench networks, and entering the far eastern houses of Kolisnykivka (red dot above S). They have also reached the outskirts of Kruhlyakivka. This is a critical situation for Ukraine, as there is now only 1.9km before Russia reaches the Oskil river and physically cut the land connection/supply route for Ukraine from Kupyansk. If this occurs, Ukrainian supplies on this front will be complicated/disrupted, as supplies will have to be sent on a roundabout route to the south over either the Oskil dam or one of the pontoon bridges.

On the Selydove/Kurakhove front, Russian troops continued their attacks in multiple areas. To the north, Russia was confirmed to have made some more progress in Lysivka, capturing some more of the houses on the southeastern outskirts. South of that, Russian troops continued making progress in trying to cut off Selydove (see here), capturing another field.

To the south, Russian assault groups made more progress in Tsukuryne, capturing the eastern side of the town after isolating Ukrainian troops, as I mentioned before. Russian troops will almost certainly continue their attacks here, and will try push into western Tsukuryne over the railway.

South of the previous picture, Russian troops continued advancing around Katerynivka (blue dot), advancing through the fields on the southern side of the town, and reaching the outskirts. Originally I said I believed Russia was trying to go around Katerynivka using the Solodka River as a barrier, and attack Yelyzavetivka instead. I was somewhat incorrect, as whilst they did use the river to advance on the southern side, they did not continue all the way to Yelyzavetivka, and instead look to be trying to take Katerynivka from the south. We will have to wait and see whether passing up the opportunity to avoid Katerynivka altogether was a mistake, or inconsequential.

Southwest of here, Russian troops made a slight bit of progress west of Vodyane, as the crossed the stream from the north, heading towards a farm.

Over in Kursk, Russian troops were confirmed to have recaptured some of the territory on the west of the front, driving Ukraine out from Veseloe (red dot under i), as well as around Medvezhe (under k).

Its unclear whether Ukraine intends to continue their attacks in this area, as they have taken a large number of losses over the past 3 weeks trying to break through Russian lines here, and have been unable to retain the advances further from the border. As I mentioned a little while ago, part of the problem for Ukraine here is that they are funnelled into a small area due to the limited number of breaches they have made in the Russian border line (dragons teeth and minefields), which makes it easy for Russia to focus its drone, ATGM, MLRS/Iskander and artillery teams. Unless they can overwhelm the defenders or create new breaches in different border areas, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to break through here, and would be better off using these troops to defend the other parts of the Kursk front.

Continuing on from Picture 3, Russian troops made more progress towards Kolisnykivka, capturing more of the fields around the Pishchana River.

On the southeastern side, Russian troops also made some progress in Stelmakhivka, capturing the southern side of the village.

Following on from Picture 1, Russian troops captured the hills north of Vesele (red dot below m), after Ukraine was forced to retreat due to the Russian advance north of here. If Russia can keep moving west, they will drive Ukraine out from the hills overlooking Ivano-Darivka (blue dot), which they were previously had to retreat from due to Ukrainian positions on said hills.

Following on from Picture 4, Russian troops made some more progress north of Selydove, advancing west along the E50 highway. They are now only 2km away from physically cutting the northern supply road of the city.

To the south, Russian assault groups quickly advanced within Tsukuryne, crossing the railway and capturing most of the remainder of the town. Surviving Ukrainian troops were forced back to the farm and warehouses on the western side of the town, however are unlikely to be able to hold this area due to the weak positions (warehouses don’t make great defensive points).

East of the previous picture, Russian troops continued gradually clearing the fields east of the Vovcha River, capturing another section. Ukraine is slowly withdrawing back to its defensive line on the west side of the Vovcha River, but is still trying to contest this area with rearguard troops and drones. To the south, Russian troops also made a small advance south of Heorhiivka.

Following on from Picture 5, Russian assault groups attacked towards Katerynivka (red dot above a), capturing most of the eastern fields and reaching the outermost buildings on the southern side of the town. There is some footage from Ukraine of these attacks here, although its heavily edited. They also advanced into the warehouses north of Kostyantynivka (red dot above m), which have been in the greyzone for a while now. Thus, the battle for Katerynivka has begun. It will be interesting to see how well Ukraine fairs here, given the heavy casualties all units on this front have taken since the beginning of the year.

Over near Vuhledar, Russian troops have begun advancing north into the fields, having finalised the sweeping of the town. As mentioned previously, these troops will join the other Russian units heading towards Bohoyavlenka (blue dot), aiming to clear the fields before the autumn rains set in and they become very muddy. The area between this advance, and the small advance shown in Picture 5 will almost certainly fall to Russia, as Ukraine continues to fall back.