RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 958 and 959 of the War - Suriyakmaps

The 2 green shapes are the Russian advances Suriyak confirmed, and has marked on his map. The red shapes are Russian advances that have occurred since the previous update, but Suriyak HASN’T outlined on his map. The blue shapes are Ukrainian advances that have occurred since the previous update, but Suriyak hasn’t outlined on his map.

To do a quick summary of these:

· Russian troops were confirmed to have made small gains north of the Seversky Donets River in Bilohorivka, and on the chalk quarry.

· Russian troops expanded their control of the fields around Verkhnokamyanske

· Map was corrected to show Ukraine still in control of western Verkhnokamyanske

· Sometime over the past few weeks Russian troops were forced to withdraw from around Vyimka (long abandoned village), with Ukraine moving back in

· The greyzone has been significantly expanded for the around in and around Vyimka, as Russian troops advancing into eastern Vyimka on foot confirms no Ukrainian presence in most of this area.

Until things are further clarified, I’m going to hold off on making any statements or doing analysis on this part of the front.

Following on from the previous update, Russian troops in Toretsk were confirmed to have captured the large area of the southern suburbs and forest that Ukraine was forced to abandon (details in previous post). Additionally, Russian assault groups also made some small progress in the residential area on the northwest side. With these advances, Russia now controls just under half of the town, and is likely to capture the last part of the southern suburbs in the coming days, as Ukraine retreats.

If Ukraine cannot hold onto their positions in the mine complexes on the western and northern sides of Toretsk, they will almost certainly lose control of the settlement, as they pass the point of no return for urban battles. As previously mentioned, a lack of infantry, and changing directions of Russian attacks has been Ukraine’s undoing here, which is not something they will be able to remedy with their current forces. Russia will still take some time to capture the remainder of Toretsk however, and the intensity of fighting will remain as high as it currently is.

North of Vuhledar, Russian troops advanced into the fields northwest of the mine complex, as they progressively push Ukraine back towards Bohoyavlenka (top blue dot).

On the Kupyansk front, Russian troops in Synkivka restarted operations, following a few week pause after their capture of the village, taking the fields east of the settlement, as well as advancing into the northern side of Petropavlivka (right blue dot). Some Russian troops did actually get further into the town than is shown here, however video footage has shown that this assault failed, with at least 2 soldiers captured by Ukraine.

Petropavlivka is a bit of an odd settlement, as its essentially stretched out over 1 road, along the Hnylytsya River. Capturing it would severely restrict supplies to Ukrainian troops in the fields to the east, and likely force their retreat (pic below).

On the Pokrovsk/Selydove front, Russian troops in the north made some more progress in Lysivka, capturing more residential buildings and reaching the centre of the village. To the south, Russian troops captured the fields between their previous advances along the railway line and treelines. This advance was to be expected, as Ukraine had no way of contesting this area.

Over in Kursk, Russia kicked off the second phase of its counteroffensive, after the first one stalled around Liubimovka and Sverdlikovo, and with the Ukrainian diversionary attack towards Veseloe. Multiple small motorised and mechanised groups rushed deep into Ukrainian lines, both along the main Korenevo-Sudzha road, as well as toward Liubimovka and Olgovka. Ukrainian troops were caught off guard, and were unable to halt this rapid assaults, such as with this Ukrainian tank being chased by 2 Russian BTRs. This video actually takes play far to the south east of the advance shown here, at the end of the longest red arrow (under the y).

Whilst information and reports are scattered, what could be confirmed is that Russian troops were able to recapture Matveeka (red dot above S) and Olgovka (red dot above u), as well as a large portion of the fields in that area. Suriyak is being conservative with the rest of this area, at least until we get further confirmation, but Ukrainian troops have likely quickly retreated from the large forest area near Olgovka, as well as from most of the fields near the main road until Zelenyi Shylakh (blue dot below y), pulling back to friendly positions around the villages.

Now to burst the bubble of those who have read a particular claim, no, Ukrainian troops haven’t started to abandon Kursk and flee in large columns. That rumour seems to have been started by a random Telegram channel, but quickly denied by other Russian sources. Ukraine is reported to be gearing up for a counterattack, or at least trying to reinforce these areas, but the actual situation and control is unclear for much of this area. What can be said is that if Ukraine do not respond quickly, they are likely to lose many of these villages and positions, and thus most of the north of the front. This would put Sudzha at risk of an attack from the northwest, as well as threaten the entire Ukrainian Kursk grouping (pic below).

At the same time as the above, there was a separate Russian advance towards Novaya Sorochina, on the northeast side of the front. Russian MoD claimed they had recaptured this settlement, however only the advance up to and including the railway could be confirmed. The village currently sits in the greyzone, at least until there is clarification as to whether Russian troops did in fact enter the settlement.

On the Oskil River front, Russian troops cleared the last little section of fields and houses south of Stelmakhivka, which Ukraine abandoned a few days ago.

In Kamyanske, following on from the previous update, Russian troops in the town retreated back over the river to their original positions in Verkhnya Krynytsya, with Ukraine retaking the residential buildings. As mentioned previously, the Russian group that crossed the river was likely just a DRG, with very few troops, so holding that area against a Ukrainian counterattack was never going to be viable. This event really only got that muchattention, despite how minor it was, due to it occurring in an unexpected area and one that had seen virtually no fighting in 2 years.

I won’t rule out the possibility that Russian may launch future probing/recon attacks with DRGs on this part of the front, as they look for weaknesses in the Ukrainian line.