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Post #118

RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 971 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Oct 22, 2024 — Oct 22, 2024 War Day 971–971

Surprise! You get 2 days of posts in a row. There were some major developments today/yesterday, so I made time to do an update so I don’t fall too far behind.

Also yes, I am aware Suriyak has made one early Day 972 update. It’ll be in my next post with the rest of Day 972.

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Pictures 1 to 6 are from Day 971 (Tuesday 22 October).

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A reminder that these maps are confirming updates from previous days (i.e. 12 to 48 hours delayed from each day).

Ukrainian Advance
14.10 km²
Overall (set): 14.10 km²
Russian Advance
49.69 km²
Net Change
-35.59 km²

Situation Snapshots

Imagery, commentary, and territorial changes from the period.

12 entries
Russian Forces Advance: 10.83 km²

Advance = 10.83km2

Starting off with the Oskil River front, Russian troops pushed south out of Nevske, quickly capturing Novosadove (red dot below y), and the adjacent fields to the east. If you read my previous post from Day 967, you’d remember that this advance was to be expected/inevitable, as Novosadove is very small and has virtually no cover to defend from. Ukrainian troops in this area have withdrawn south, and are currently set up in northern Terny (bottom blue dot).

As it stands, Terny is likely to meet the same fate as Novosadove, with Russian pressure from both the north and east forcing a Ukrainian retreat further south. Terny is however a small town, and will likely take longer to capture than Novosadove.
Russian Forces Advance: 30.64 km²

Advance = 30.64km2

Further north of the previous picture, Russian assault groups from the 423rd motor rifle regiment and the 27th motorized rifle brigade launched multiple simultaneous attacks out of Stelmakhivka, Miasozharivka and Andriivka, rapidly taking over a significant area of fields west of the Zherebets River. This significantly complicates the Ukrainian defence of this area, as on top of dealing with the recent Russian advances reaching the Oskil River (top middle of map), these units are also dealing with multiple attacks from the east.

The remaining Ukrainian controlled are north of this advance will likely be abandoned over the next day or 2, due to the risk of encirclement. Further west of this advance is Lozova (blue dot under m) and the Lozova River, which will somewhat slow down the Russian advances here, although likely not for long.
Russian Forces Advance: 3.76 km²

Advance = 3.76km2

In Chasiv Yar, over the past few days Russian forces have had significant success on the eastern side of the town, gradually capturing the remainder of the eastern suburbs, as well as the last buildings of Kalinina (red dot above m), and the northern forest area. Ukraine has repeatedly tried driving Russian troops out of the eastern suburbs with small tank raids, which have often ended poorly. The continual Russian pressure has now paid dividends, and they have managed to force Ukraine back to the centre of Chasiv Yar, ceding most of its positions. Suriyak did however highlight that there may still be a few Ukrainian troops hiding in some of the basements of those houses, so Russia will still need to clear the area to ensure control.
Context
Whilst this is certainly a significant advance (by Chasiv Yar standards), it does not mean the rest of the battle will be easy. Ukraine is still heavily entrenched in the town, and has numerous bunkers, dugouts and positions all throughout the forest and urban area. The battle will continue to be an intense slog, but will likely speed up somewhat from positional fighting to larger assault and advance attempts. There is also the Russian advance south of Chasiv Yar from a few days ago, with Russian troops there trying to flank the town similar to what is occurring in Selydove.
Russian Forces Advance: 0.37 km²

Advance = 0.37km2

On the Toretsk front, Russian troops made a small advance in Scherbynivka, capturing some more houses. Heavy clashes continue within Toretsk itself, with no confirmable territorial changes at this time.

Russian Forces Advance: 0.60 km²

Top Advance = 0.18km2, Bottom Advance = 0.42km2

Following on from their advances in the previous update, Russian troops continued their assaults in and around Selydove. Clashes are being reported on all sides of the city, with Russia confirmed to have advanced slightly further in the northern suburbs, as well as captured 2 more streets on the eastern side of the city. There are also clashes going on on the flanks of Selydove, as Ukrainian troops attempt to hold the supply routes open for the forces in the city.
Russian Forces Advance: 3.49 km²

Top Left Advance = 0.18km2, Top Right Advance = 0.40km2, Bottom Left Advance = 2.91km2

On the Kurkahove front, Russian assault groups made further progress within Katerynivka, capturing the central area of the town. At this point I’d reinforce my previous comments and say the town is lost for Ukraine, and they simply won’t be able to stop the Russian advance here. The bridge between Katerynivka and Yelyzavetivka being destroyed makes retreat difficult, but not impossible if the remaining Ukrainian soldiers abandon their equipment and ford the river.
Context
East of this, Russian troops also advanced into Antonivka, taking up positions on the eastern edge of the town. With neighbouring Katerynivka falling, it was always going to be difficult for Ukraine to hold Antonivka, as they have to deal with the threat of Russian troops crossing the river and flanking them from behind. Antonivka will still hold for the next week at least, but will almost certainly fall to Russia.
Context
To the southwest, on the Vuhledar front, Russian troops captured a few more fields to the east of Vuhledar itself, as they gradually push forward towards Bohoyavlenka (blue dot) and Novoukrainka (off map west).
Ukrainian Forces Advance: 14.10 km²

Top Left Advance = 2.15km2, Top Right Advance = 11.95km2

On the Kursk front, over the past 3 days Ukraine has launched multiple mechanised counterattacks on the northern side of the front, notably by part of the 47th Mechanised Brigade (Bradleys and Abrams). These attacks were focused on the village of Zelenyi Shlyakh (red dot next to red and blue arrows), with lots of footage being release by both Russia and Ukraine (Video 1, Video 2, Video 3, Video 4, Video 5). For now Ukraine looks to have been unsuccessful in its attacks so far, but has recaptured some of the greyzone south of Zelenyi Shlyakh. Further counterattacks by Ukraine are expected, as failing to hold or drive back Russia here means potentially losing the entire northern side of the front.
Context
o the east, new video footage has shown that Ukraine controls the farm area and treelines between Cherkasskoe Porechnoe and Martynovka. Its unknown exactly when this advance happened (as the footage shows Ukrainian troops already set up and defending here), but likely sometime in the previous fortnight.
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o the south, Cherkasskaya Konopelka has gone into the greyzone, as renewed clashes have shown Ukraine is still trying to contest the settlement.