RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 973 to 975 of the War - Suriyakmaps

We start off with the Toretsk front, where heavy clashes continue to rage in the city. In the southern suburbs, Ukrainian troops launched a counterattack over the past few days, recapturing most of the area and entrenching themselves in the buildings. Russian troops have already begun trying to drive them out (with several geolocated drone strikes), however this still undoes a good portion of their progress and will delay operations in the central area of the town.

To the west, Russian troops continued advancing up through Scherbynivka (red dot under i) along the railway and (single) southern road, now reaching the centre of the town. The battle will still go on for a long while yet, as the town stretches out for quite a ways (end at very top of map).

Continuing on from the previous post, Russian assault groups made more progress on all sides of Selydove. On Top of capturing the northern suburbs and their adjacent fields, they’ve also took control of the slag heap, and reached the apartment building area in the centre of the town. Russian troops also captured the last of the fields on that side of Selydove, as well as the remainder of the central town south of the river, leaving one last bridge over the Solona River in Selydove before Ukraine troops on either side become separated.

As mentioned in the last post, there is no longer any coordinated defence of the city, and its now just scattered soldiers and squads fending for themselves and trying to escape. Russian troops will continue to make quick progress here, and really the only major obstacle left for them will be clearing all the rooms of the many tall apartment buildings in the town. As an aside, no counterattack attempts by Ukraine have been seen to try relieve the defending garrison, despite multiple counterattacks taking place around Novohrodivka, just 5km north.

On the Kursk front, Ukraine is still attempting to retake Zelenyi Shlyakh (red dot above y), launched multiple counterattacks over the past few days, however have had no success so far and have lost many vehicles (video 1, video 2, video 3). However, despite the losses these counterattacks have stopped the second phase of Russia’s counteroffensive in its tracks, and for now are preventing the encirclement of the Ukrainian troops on the north of the front.

Suriyak also corrected the map near the border, with new video showing that Ukraine did not abandon Nikolaevo-Darino, and that they are currently trying to reestablish control of Darino (now in grey zone). About 2/3 of the correction is changing greyzone back to Ukrainian control (the large area of fields).

On the Vuhledar front, a large Russian mechanised force crossed the Kashlahach River and advanced along the main road towards Shaktarske (top left blue dot), capturing many fields and a couple of small trenches. Both Russian and Ukrainian reports indicate Russia troops actually reached Shakhtarske with this assault, however due to the video cutting before we see what happened once they reached the town, Suriyak has been cautious and has only marked what he could confirm. This is still a significant advance, with Russian troops pushing more than 6km into Ukrainian territory with ease.

On the Selydove/Kurakhove front, Russian troops continued making progress in multiple different areas. Starting with the northwest side, Russian troops were confirmed to have entered Novodmytrivka (top left red dot), establishing a small foothold on the eastern side. Russian sources reported that due to how small the village is and the density of Ukrainian drones that advancing here was difficult, however are still slowly making some progress.

In the centre, Russian troops also entered Kreminna Balka (red dot above u), similarly taking a small foothold in the first houses. This settlement will likely fall to Russia relatively quickly, due to its small size and Ukrainian focus on the battles for Novoselydivka (next settlement south). Speaking of Novoselydivka, Russia troops were also confirmed to have made a small advance west of the village, capturing the abandoned water treatment plant.

To the southwest, the biggest clashes have been occurring in Hirnyk (red dot under m), with Russian forces making more progress in the town, capturing the a section of the eastern side. Russian assault groups are also trying to build off their progress from capturing Izmailivka (red dot under k) from the previous update, and are trying to capturing the mine complex on the southwest side of Hirnyk. If this falls, Ukraine will be unable to reinforce or supply its troops in the town, as the buildings there provide line of sight over the last remaining supply and evacuation route for Ukraine. For now however, they are holding firm in the mine, but the same cannot be said for the rest of Hirnyk.

Following on from Picture 2, Russian forces made further progress in Selydove, capturing most of the remainder of the southern side of the city, as the remaining Ukrainian troops attempted to escape overnight/in the morning through the fields to Hryhorivka. They also made more progress on the north side of Selydove, capturing most of it and reaching the centre of the city from the north. Some Ukrainian troops look to have made it out of the city, as evidenced by a couple of recently released videos (don’t think they have been posted to the sub), whilst others were not so lucky.

To the north, as part of Ukraine’s counterattack campaign its been trying north of Novohrodivka, Ukrainian troops managed to reach the mine north of the town, capturing it and a couple of the adjacent buildings. Ukraine has been launching multiple counterattacks around Novohrodivka for several weeks now with part of the 47th Mechanised Brigade, with limited success. I must admit I am not sure what Ukrainian command are thinking here, as its clear they are not using enough forces in these counterattacks to go on the offensive, and have mostly just wasted equipment and manpower. They are well entrenched in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and clearly plan to stay on the defensive here, so wasting units in these counterattacks that could be used later on is ill-advised.

Moving on to the Oskil River front, continuing their progress from a few days ago, Russian forces have captured more of Kruhlyakivka (top red dot), as they approach the outskirts of Zahryzove (blue dot below that).

To the southwest, Russian troops captured the last few warehouses in Vyshneve, confirming their control of the village, as well as expanding the buffer around the settlement by capturing the adjacent fields. Russian troops here have already begun assaults on Pershotravneve (off map south), as they seek to make progress before Ukrainian troops can set up and entrench themselves.

Further south on the same front, Russia forces entered the north side of Terny, establishing a small foothold in the village. To the south, clashes continue on the eastern side of Torske, as Russian assault groups make further attempts to gain a foothold.

Following on from Picture 6, in the morning of Day 975, Russian assault groups made further progress in the centre of Selydove, capturing most of the apartment buildings, as the fighting moves to the northwest side of the city. Ukrainian troops continue to withdraw and try break out in random small groups, making no attempt at a fighting, organised retreat. This has allowed Russian forces to make quick progress in clearing the buildings in the centre of Selydove.

To the south, separate to the advances in Selydove, Russian troops have captured the fields west of the railway, up to the main road leading to Novodmytrivka. These troops will likely continue to head west and southwest, taking advantage of the scattered Ukrainian defenders to capture more positions.

Further south of the previous picture, Russian forces made large advances in several areas, as Ukrainian defences crumbled. On the north side, Russian assault groups broke through the remaining Ukrainian garrison, and captured the town of Hirnyk, taking many POWs. Ukrainian units in this area are in absolute chaos, starting after they lost Zoryane almost a week ago. Ukrainian sources provided scattered reports, but alleged that some units (level/size not specified) began to abandon Hirnyk days ago, withdrawing to Kurakhivka, without informing their counterparts. This left the remaining Ukrainian units isolated and outflanked, resulting in them quickly collapsing.

Just west of Hirnyk, Russian troops also advanced south of Novoselydivka, before they had even captured the town, taking another 2 fields. From their movements, it looks like Russian command is trying to cut the last remaining route out of the pocket for Ukraine, attempting to beeline it for Illinka. At this stage the entire area is certainly lost for Ukraine, and if they haven’t already begun evacuating, they should do so immediately. Ukraine will definitely take casualties trying to leave, given how narrow an area they have to retreat through, but should be able to get some of them men out before Russia can reach the reservoir.

On the opposite side of the Vovcha River, Russian forces moved into Oleksandropil, capturing the village and the last of the fields on their side of the Vovcha River. Ukrainian troops had actually abandoned Oleksandropil a few days ago, pulling back into Kurakhivka due to intense Russian bombardment. With this advance Russia now surrounds Kurakhivka on 3 sides, and will likely launch simultaneously assaults from each within the next 2 days. As mentioned above, given the situation Ukraine will never be able to hold this area, and should evacuate now.

Following on from Picture 9, by the afternoon of Day 975 Russian troops had made even more progress in Selydove, capturing some of the warehouses on the northwest side of the city, and physically controlling the last remaining road out. The remaining Ukrainian troops continue to try flee west towards Hryhorivka, with Ukraine also abandoning Vyshneve (red dot bellow a) as well. Unfortunately Russia was not confirmed to have captured the village on Day 975, which would have meant 2 Vyshneve’s coming under Russian control on the same day (the other from Picture 7).

To the north, following their own counterattack, Russian troops recaptured the mine north of Novohrodivka, which Ukraine took in Picture 6.

On the KurakhovTop Advance = 2.73km2, Upper Middle Advance = 2.15km2, Lower Right Advance = 7.20km2e front, Russian troops made a series of advances in several areas. To the north, Russian troops captured the remainder of the fields and small suburb of Kurakhove on the eastern side of the Vovcha River. Ukraine has abandoned this area several weeks ago, due to the impossibility of supplying its troops there long term, but Russian presence here couldn’t be confirmed until now.

Southeast of the Russian troops made another advance out of Maksymilianivka, taking another field west of the town.

On the east side, over the past 2 days Russian forces began advancing through the fields west of Pobjeda, taking a large section of fields. This area has become difficult for Ukraine to supply and reinforce following the loss of Maksymilianivka, as there is now only 1 open road, which runs through the middle of the fields (starting east of Dalnje, and running all the way past the bottom orange arrow). Ukraine is still trying to contest this area, but is mainly doing so with drones as it pulls its soldiers back towards Kurakhove.

In a post of multiple notable updates, we come to perhaps the most interesting of all, which is on the Vuhledar front. Russian forces made significant advances in multiple areas, catching many by surprise.

Starting with the west (left) side, building on their success in Picture 4, Russian troops launched more mechanised assaults, advancing slightly west of Zolota Nyva (red dot above S), but primarily capturing a significant area of fields south of Shakhtarske (top left red dot) and Novoukrainka (top middle blue dot). These advances happened very quickly, with Russian troops overrunning multiple Ukrainian positions with few losses and reaching the outskirts of both towns. Clashes are currently ongoing in both Shakhtarske and Novoukrainka, as Ukraine desperately tries to hold the settlements.

At the same time as this, to the east, Russia assault groups also advanced quickly towards Bohoyavlenka, capturing multiple fields, and a large trench network on the southern outskirts of the town. Similar to the above, clashes are currently occurring as Ukrainian troops suddenly find the front several km closer in the span of a day, and have been caught off guard. Initial reports of the assaults suggest rapid Russian progress in the town, although as of this update this information has not been confirmed yet.

With these advances, Russia is now assaulting 3 towns on the Vuhledar front simultaneously, and reportedly making good progress in all of them. As for how these advances suddenly happened, part of the explanation comes down to high Ukrainian losses to drones, with numerous videos of strikes on both vehicles and soldiers from this part of the front being released over the past few days alone (video 1, video 2, video 3, video 4, video 5). This is on top of already struggling with manpower and a lack of artillery, which has meant Russian advances met far less resistance than before.

To be abundantly clear, this is not a breakthrough YET. Ukraine is still defending the lines here and trying to stop Russia, however they are either being forced to abandon positions due to constant drone/artillery/FAB pressure, allowing Russia to walk in uncontested, or are fighting back, but have so little infantry their ability to defend is minimal, and they are overrun. If Ukraine cannot reinforce this area or reorganise their existing troops to form a better defence line, then a breakthrough may very well happen.

Following on from Picture 11, by the end of Day 975 Russian forces had cleared most of the remainder of Selydove, capturing the rest of the southern side and the most of the north up to the western suburbs. Russian control currently sits at 95% of Selydove, and as Suriyak acknowledged the last 5% is more about just waiting for confirmation Russia has cleared it (which as of writing this has come through). This does mean my earlier prediction of 3 days for Selydove to fall will be slightly off (morning of Day 976, instead of end Day 975 predicted), but its close enough.

I’ll discuss the ramifications of Selydove being captured by Russia, and Russia’s next steps here in the next post.