RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 976 and 977 of the War - Suriyakmaps

We begin with the Oskil River front and Kupyansk front, where Russian troops are consolidating their control of the spearhead along the river. On the north side, a small number of Russian infantry crossed the Pishchana River and established a foothold in southern Kolisnykivka (red dot above S). This surprised me somewhat, as Russia has yet to clear Kruhlyakivka (Red dot below S) completely, and could have tried assaulting Kolisnykivka from the northeast side, where they are already only a few hundred metres away.

To the south, a different group of Russian troops continued clearing Kruhlyakivka, and have captured more of the forest of the west side of the town. Despite the earlier advance north, most of Russia’s effort here is directed towards moving south along the main road to capture the settlements along the Oskil River and destabilise Ukrainian positions further east. Thus their next target will be Zahryzove (blue dot below S).

Following on from the previous post, in Toretsk Ukrainian troops continued their counterattack in the southern suburbs, and have recaptured the last of the buildings there. They will now have to dig in in these positions, as a Russian attack to drive them out before they can get set up is almost certain. It will not be easy for Ukraine, as their positions can be attacked from 3 different sides, but if they can hold the southern suburbs it will stall Russian progress in central Toretsk and allow them to hold the town for much longer than previously estimated.

the last post we left off with Selydove being 95% under Russian control, with the remaining 5% just waiting for confirmation of being cleared. That confirmation came in a few hours after the update, meaning Russia has captured the city of Selydove (video 1, video 2, video 3). From the beginning of the first assaults on all sides to confirmation the last houses had been cleared, this battle for the city took approximately 8 days. However, the wider battle for Selydove took several months, as Russia initially entered the city at the end of August, but were repulsed after Ukraine reinforced with several brigades. As for the Ukrainian garrison, the claims as always are vague, but from the videos (video 1, video 2) and statements by both sides sources we can infer that it was quite chaotic, and at least some small groups made it out of the city.

At the same time Russia also captured neighbouring Vyshneve, having cleared the last of the houses. I’d recommend you have a look at that video, or at least the end of it, for a good view of what the area looks like from a drone.

As for Russia’s next steps here, it will still take them a few weeks to conduct a full ‘clean-up’ of Selydove, although that requires only a fraction of the troops involved in the battle. As for the rest of them, some Russian units will rotate out or at least take a break, getting themselves set up inside the city, as it will now become a forward operating base (and later a logistics hub). The others will press the attack to the northwest, west and southwest, chasing after Ukraine’s troops and aiming to take more ground before Ukraine has time to set up new defences. The 5 villages immediately west of Selydove (other than Vyshneve) will be first up, and none of them will likely hold long due to how small they are, and the lack of preconstructed defences. The northwest advance will be interesting, as it links with Russia’s assaults around Pokrovsk, such as the field they captured in this update, aiming to slowly surround the town.

South of the previous picture, Russian forces continued to press the attack in multiple different areas. In addition to continuing their assaults on Novodmytrivka (red dot above r), they also captured the fields and treelines on either side of the stream west of Tsukuryne (above the y). Russia is also simultaneously assaulting Kreminna Balka (red dot above a), Novoselydivka (red dot above k) and currently trying to capture the mine on the outskirts of Hirnyk (red dot above p). Ukraine is desperately trying to defend all these areas, but is being driven back and will almost certainly have to retreat.

On the Vuhledar front, Russian troops continue their rapid advances in multiple areas. Starting with the west side, Russian assault groups have captured the southern warehouses and southeastern sides of Shaktarske (red dot above @), as the Ukrainian garrison tries to mount a haphazard defence.

Heading east, a similar situation is unfolding in Novoukrainka (above the i), with Russian assault groups capturing the southwestern warehouses and the first houses. Once again, Ukrainian troops here are trying to mount a defence, but are simply not prepared and are losing ground fast.

Further east, Russian troops moved into the fields south of Bohoyavlenka, as what few Ukrainian troops were holding these areas pulled back to one of the towns, allowing Russia to just move in. In Bohoyavlenka itself, the Ukrainian defence collapsed within the day, less than 24 hours after assaults began, with Russian assault groups capturing most of the town and the large warehouse area on the west side. The northern area has been marked as greyzone as whilst surviving Ukrainian troops have almost certainly retreated, we’re still waiting on confirmation Russia has cleared the area. There is also the large tree plantation on the northern side of Bohoyavlenka, which separate the bulk of the town from the last street, and is likely where the surviving garrison are hiding.

With all 3 of the towns discussed above, Ukraine faces the same problem. Suffering from a lack of infantry, Ukraine just does not have the troops to properly hold and secure this front line, and they are almost entirely dependent on drone teams taking out assault groups before they reach them. In this case, Russia has quickly overwhelmed Ukraine’s infantry, and has advanced 5 to 10km towards and then into each of these towns in the span of 48 hours, with too many simultaneous assaults for drones to stop. This has meant Ukraine’s troops were just not prepared for an urban battle, having only just retreated from their positions in the fields sometimes only hours before fighting started in the towns. Without this time to prepare and plan Russian assault groups are rapidly out positioning and in most cases just outmatching Ukrainian infantry, who overall have far less training (these are mostly TDF brigades). The fields are quickly being captured too, as the Ukrainian soldiers who were holding the few trenches there are retreating into the towns to both try help defend, and to avoid being encircled/left behind. If Ukraine is not careful here, this could well turn into a full-on route, as troops simply continuously retreat, rather than try fight in the towns or fields.

To the east of Bohoyavlenka, Russian assault groups also began to attack Yelyzavetivka, where clashes are currently ongoing. Ukraine is beginning to pull its troops out of neighbouring Katerynivka (red dot top right), in order to avoid them getting cut off when/if Russian assaults succeed. Katerynivka has not been captured by Russia yet, despite some Russian claims, with the western side of the town still under Ukrainian control.

Following on from Picture 1, Russian troops captured the southern side of Kruhlyakivka and entered Zahryzove.

Following on from Picture 1, Russian troops captured the southern side of Kruhlyakivka and entered Zahryzove.

Further south on the Oskil River front, Russian assault groups finally made headway in their attacks on Torske, establishing a small foothold on the eastern side of the town. If they can advance just 400m further west, they will reach the Zherebets River, and cut Ukrainian troops in northern Torske off from those in the central and southern parts of the town.

Following on from Picture 3, Russian troops began to push west of Selydove, captured several fields. As usual, this advance was to be expected as following the fall of the city Ukraine could no longer contest this area.

Further south, a separate Russian assault group made headway in Novodmytrivka (below u) capturing the remainder of the eastern side of the village up to the main road, as well as the fields to the north. Ukraine will likely retreat from the remaining adjacent fields and Novodmytrivka to the west, taking up positions around Zorya.

Following on from Picture 4, Russian assault groups in Hirnyk had success in pushing south, capturing the mine and the first few streets on the north side of Kurakhivka. Ukrainian troops are trying to retreat out west towards Illinka and Berestky, but are having difficulties due to drones, artillery and frequent Russian assaults. At this stage there is only 1 ‘proper’ road left out of the pocket, and another dirt path running west of Vovchenka, left for Ukraine to escape through. At this stage it is safe to say Ukraine cannot hold Kurakhivka, and will likely fully retreat/be knocked out of the town within the next week.

Picture 10: Far Left Advance = 10.09km2, Left Advance = 1.52km2, Right Advance = 0.23km2

Following on from picture 5, starting with the west side, Russian assault groups continued to make rapid progress inside Shakhtarske, taking over 2/3 of the town, with Ukraine withdrawing from the remaining 1/3. With Ukrainian infantry having pulled back from the fields into the town to help defend, Russian troops also advanced north towards Yasna Polyana, reaching the outskirts of the village. The last part of Shaktarske will likely be cleared by Russia over the next day, with Yasna Polyana almost certainly to be assaulted next (if they haven’t already).

To the east, Russian assault groups in Novoukrainka made similar rapid progress, taking over most of the southern side of the town. Unlike Shaktarske, Novoukrainka has a stream running through it, splitting the south and north side. Ukrainian troops are currently trying to hold the stream line, however are unlikely to be successful due to the large number of crossings (6 within Novoukrainka itself), and the fact Russia is already flanking them through the fields. Like with Shaktarske and Bohoyavlenka before it, the Ukrainian garrison will almost certainly retreat north within the next day. The fields between Novoukrainka and Bohoyavlenka (under the r and i) will likely fall to Russian troops as Ukraine abandons the area.

There was also another tiny advance southwest of Katerynivka, with Russian troops capturing the small forest area next to the Solodka River.

On the Zaporizhia front, over the past few days Russian troops have moved into the last of the fields south of the stream, levelling the front line north of Pryyutne. I mentioned this being the likely outcome of these advances when they first began several weeks ago.