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Post #122

RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 978 and 979 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Oct 29, 2024 — Oct 30, 2024 War Day 978–979

Pictures 1 to 4 are from Day 978 (Tuesday 29 October), and pictures 5 to 11 are from Day 979 (Wednesday 30 October).

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A reminder that these maps are confirming updates from previous days (i.e. 12 to 48 hours delayed from each day).

Ukrainian Advance
1.23 km²
Overall (set): 2.42 km²
Russian Advance
61.37 km²
Net Change
-60.14 km²

Situation Snapshots

Imagery, commentary, and territorial changes from the period.

20 entries
Ukrainian Forces Advance: 0.75 km²

Advance = 0.75km2

Context
Beginning with the Oskil River front, Russian troops finished clearing the last group of residential buildings along the shore of the Oskil River itself, confirming their full control of Kruhlyakivka (under the S). Ukraine has been trying to counterattack from Zahryzove, where clashing are currently occurring in the northern streets of the village.

Russian Forces Advance: 1.74 km²

Advance = 1.74km2

Further south on the same front, Russian troops made more progress in Terny, capturing more of the buildings on the north side. Progress here is quite difficult for Russia, due to how thin the town is (1 street wide in this northern part), and Ukraine’s having many defensive positions built up in and around Terny.
Ukrainian Forces Advance: 0.48 km²

Advance = 0.48km2

Context
In Kurakhovo, Russian forces sent multiple large mechanised assault groups towards the eastern side of the town, in an attempt to breach Ukraine’s defences. These groups took heavy losses, particularly in equipment, but the footage indicates that at least 1 of these mechanised groups was at least somewhat successful, breaking through the dragons teeth line and reaching the first of the buildings of Kurakhove proper.

Ukrainian troops recognised the danger and attempted to block the breach in the dragons teeth with a tank, however some Russian soldiers moved said tank out the way, so the breach remains. There are currently heavy clashes in that area, so its difficult to tell if Russia was able to gain a foothold in Kurakhove proper, or was knocked back again.
Russian Forces Advance: 7.03 km²

Top Left Advance = 2.93km2, Middle Left Advance = 0.42km2, Upper Middle Advance = 1.51km2, Lower Middle Advance = 0.38km2, Top Right Advance = 1.79km2

Context
On the Vuhledar front, Russian troops continued their advances across the front. On the west side, a Russian assault group, taking advantage of the chaos in Ukraine’s ranks and their lack of troops, advanced into Yasna Polyana before they had even finished clearing Shakhtarske. This assault group captured the settlement within a matter of hours, with video footage showing little to no fighting took place due to Ukrainian troops simply not being set up there to defend.
Context
To the southeast, Russian assaults groups in Novoukrainka captured the last of the buildings on the south side of the town, with the few remaining Ukrainian defenders now trying to hold the north side. As mentioned in the previous post, Ukraine is almost certainly not going to be able to hold the town, as they simply do not have enough men, and are at risk of being cut off if Russian troops in Yasna Polyana or Bohoyavlenka advance into the fields behind them.
Context
Northeast of here, Russian forces continued clearing Bohoyavlenka, capturing the last of the buildings in the north side of the main part of the town, as well as a small advance on the west side of the settlement. Contrary to some Russian claims, Bohoyavlenka is not fully controlled by Russia, as there is the small street on the north side of the tree plantation still to clear. This will likely occur within the next day, so the point is moot.
Context
Heading further east, Russian forces cleared the last of Katerynivka, after Ukraine withdraw from the town over the last 2 days, giving Russia full control. There are currently clashes ongoing in neighbouring Yelyzavetivka, on the southwest side of the town.
Russian Forces Advance: 0.93 km²

Advance = 0.93km2

Back to the Oskil River front again, Russian troops made a small advance along the railway south of Stepova Novoselivka. If Russia is able to advance much further west here, Ukrainian positions in the village will be cut off, forcing a withdrawal.
Russian Forces Advance: 11.49 km²

Top Advance = 1.77km2, Middle Advance = 6.41km2, Bottom Advance = 3.31km2

Further south on the same front, Russian assault groups made several advances through the fields west of the Zherebets River, capturing many of them and reaching the Lozova River. According to Russian sources Ukraine is trying to put up stiff resistance in Lozova (blue dot below k), but is unlikely to be successful due to how small the village is and the lack of pre-made defences. If Lozova falls Ukraine will be unable to properly contes the whole field area to the north, and will be forced to retreat.
Russian Forces Advance: 3.34 km²

Left Advance = 2.42km2, Right Advance = 0.92km2

Following on from Picture 2, Ukrainian troops counterattacked in Terny, driving Russia out from the buildings it held on the north side of the town. At the same time Russian troops made a small advance in the fields to the east, levelling the front. Russia will certainly make another attempt on Terny, although not necessarily from the north side.
Russian Forces Advance: 0.94 km²

Top Advance = 0.51km2, Bottom Advance = 0.43km2

Over around Chasiv Yar, Russian troops made some small advances south of the town, capturing the field up to the forest, as well as moving along the main road to Kostyantynivka between the mine and the small lake. Controlling this road prevents Ukraine from counterattacking the southern area controlled by Russia, with Russian forces laying mines on the road (such as one that destroyed a tank a few days ago).
Russian Forces Advance: 0.20 km²

Advance = 0.20km2

On the Pokrovsk front, Russian troops advanced up one of the treelines east of Myrnohrad.
Russian Forces Advance: 7.00 km²

Advance = 7.00km2

On the Kurakhove front, Russian assault groups from the 114th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade advanced deeper into Kurakhivka, quickly capturing the town, as well as the mine complex west of it. As I mentioned in the previous update, Ukraine was already trying to retreat from here, as holding this area was impossible, so it was quite easy for Russia to push in behind the fleeing Ukrainians. As with Hirnyk, some Ukrainian troops did not make it out of the town, and were either captured or killed. One Ukrainian source stated that their troops retreated following a decision from their Brigade, rather than Ukrainian high command, and just hours after they left Russia captured the mine complex which they had used to escape.

With this advance Ukraine has now lost the last of the ‘Vovcha River line’ the series of dense defences built just before the fall of Avdiivka to try hold the Russian advance. Ukrainian troops, battered and severely depleted, will retreat west, likely regrouping in Berestky, as the other settlements further east are simply not defendable. Russia’s advance on this section of the front should pick up somewhat, at least after they have had a short break and finish cleaning operations in Hirnyk and Kurakhovka, as the remaining areas east have far fewer defences and not nearly as well built up as these 2 towns. Its highly unlikely Ukraine will be able to hold the north side of the reservoir, meaning their troops in Kurakhove will have to deal with long range attacks from the highground on the other side.
Russian Forces Advance: 28.70 km²

Top Left Advance = 4.24km2, Top Right Advance = 1.67km2, Bottom Middle Advance = 22.79km2

Context
Following on from Picture 4, Russia forces continued their advances across the front. Starting with the west side again, Russia cleared the fields directly around Yasna Polyana, up to the stream, which is also where far eastern side of a Ukrainian anti-tank ditch ends (more context in comments).
Context
To the southeast, as mentioned in the earlier section under picture 4, Ukraine was not going to be able to hold Novoukrainka, especially with their lack of troops, with Russian forces successfully crossing the bridges and routing the remaining defenders, capturing the town. They also captured the large area of fields to the east, which as previously mentioned has been abandoned by Ukraine due to their troops pulling back into the towns.
Context
To the northeast, Russian assault groups pushed through the tree plantation and captured the far northern street of Bohoyavlenka, confirming their full control of the town.

Between these 3 advances it is clear that Ukrainian command are in chaos, and they are struggling to respond to the situation. These towns have fallen faster than ever, with the only defence being haphazardly strung together by the squads who happened to retreat into said towns, which obviously didn’t last long. These advances of the past 3 days mean that of the 4 towns Russia assaulted simultaneously on this front starting, they have already captured 3 of them (Shaktarske just needs to be cleared), as well as an additional village (Yasna Polyana). This kind of pace would be unthinkable back in January, when just a single town battle on this front would take months to conclude, and the town itself would be nothing but ruins.