RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 993 and 994 of the War - Suriyakmaps

We kick off with Kursk, where multiple advances have occurred in many different areas over the past 2 days.

We kick off with Kursk, where multiple advances have occurred in many different areas over the past 2 days. Starting with the northwest side, Russian troops advanced a little further southeast and south of Kremyanoe, capturing multiple fields and some treelines. This helps Russia get closer to the forests northwest of Kruglnekoe, which they can use to approach the village itself. At the same time as these 2 advances were occurring, some video footage was released of a Russian strike on the forest southwest of Kremyanoe. Its unclear whether this was from before Russia captured the forest, or if its current and Ukraine is infact still present there (after they retreated from Olgovka a few weeks ago), so Suriyak has marked I as greyzone for now.

Heading east, Russian assault groups pushed back against the Ukrainian counterattacks from the previous update, and have recaptured Novaya Sorochina. This puts Russia within striking distance of Malaya Loknya, although it will not be easy to break into the small town.

To the southwest, a small number of Russian infantry have used the treeline south of Novoivanovka to push parallel to Leonidovo and Aleksandriya, likely in an attempt to flank those villages and ambush incoming Ukrainian troops. The Struga River, which runs through this area (said treelines are on either side of it) makes assaulting those 2 villages from this side a little difficult, so Russia will likely try attack them from the north.

Heading to the southern side of the Kursk front, Ukraine launched some smaller counterattacks over the past few days, recapturing a farm near the railroad (very top of map), as well as Cherkasskaya Konopelka.

At the same time as the above, Russian troops capturing more of the forests north of the Psel River, as well as the fields between Plekhovo and the border, which naturally were abandoned once Ukraine lost control of most of Plekhovo. At the current pace Russia will likely recapture all territory east/south of the Psel River by the end of November, at which point they can turn their attention toward the Sudzha and its surrounding forests.

On the Kupyansk front, some very interesting developments took place over the past few days. Starting 3 days ago, Russian recon groups crossed the Hnylytsya River and probed the forests on the southern side. The map was changed to show this as greyzone at the time, however I didn’t previously mention it as seemingly nothing came of those recon groups. That is, until Day 993, when out of nowhere a small Russian column (1x Tank, 1x BMP, 1x MT-LB) crossed the River and rushed deep into Ukrainian lines. The MT-LB was knocked out in the forest area, with its dismounts heading into said forest, however the tank and BMP managed to reach all the way into eastern Kupyansk and dropped off soldiers successfully.

This obviously comes as quite the surprise, for Russia to be able to easily push right into a major Ukrainian military hub meeting little resistance. From what I could find, it looks like Ukraine simply did not properly man or defend the northern side of Kupyansk, leaving an opening for Russia to push through. Suriyak has changed this area to greyzone until the situation becomes clearer. From initial reports, Ukraine claims to have crushed the Russian troops who reached Kupyansk, whilst Russian sources claim they were reinforced. Given current reports of ongoing clashes, the latter is more latter likely than the former. If Russia can successfully deploy more assault groups into this opening, it will significantly speed up the capture of Kupyansk and save them having to clear the villages and fields further east.

Over in Toretsk, the back and forth fighting I mentioned previously continues apace. Starting with the north side, Russian troops in central Toretsk pushed back into the school area, retaking the large buildings south of the sports oval. Further east, Russian forces also cleared the forest area on the outskirts of Toretsk, which they have previously ignored until now (was no need to capture it).

Further south, in southern Toretsk Russia renewed its attacks, recapturing the first streets of the suburbs they lost in a Ukrainian counterattack 2 weeks ago. At the same time, Ukraine pushed out of southern Toretsk and recaptured the small slag heap and a small section of the forest. Pushing any further out of Toretsk is unlikely for Ukraine, as the fighting within the town is the current focus.

To the west, Ukraine counterattacked in Scherbynivka and Leonidivka (blue dots), recapturing part of the former, and tiny section of the latter that Russia controlled. Simultaneously, Russian captured some of the fields north of Niu-York, widening the front line. Renewed Russian attacks on Scherbynivka and Leonidivka will likely occur within the next week, before Ukraine can properly set up defensive positions.

On the Selydove front, Russia made a small advance west of Petrivka, heading through the treelines along the railway line. This ties in with what I mentioned a little under a week ago, with Russian heading for the crossing over the Solona River west of the villages, so it can cut off northern Petrivka and Hryhorivka (red dots above r and y).

Moving south, on the Kurakhove front, the Russian forces captured the last part of Illinka, confirming full control of the village. They’ve also wasted no time in moving west, with assaults on Nova Illinka (a detached suburb of Kurakhove) and Berestky likely to begin within the next 2 days. Ukraine is supporting this area via drone teams based in Kurakhove, however they are having limited effect due to being preoccupied with advances around Kurakhove. Once assaults on Berestky start, Ukraine will have to retreat, likely via Stari Terny and the dam they blew up.

In Kurakhove itself, Russian assault groups made further progress in the town, capturing the last part of the eastern suburbs. Heavy clashes are currently ongoing, as Ukraine tries to slow down the Russian advance.

On the northern side of the Vuhledar front, Russia pushed further up the main road towards Uspenivka, capturing several fields and a few treelines. This not only puts Russia within a single successful push of reaching Uspenivka, but also gets them within 1.3km of Kostiantynopolske (open field). Whilst Uspenivka is the more valuable target, taking Kostiantynopolske first would make the assault on Uspenivka much easier.

On the Velyka Novosilka front, Russian forces continued to press the attack from multiple sides, the initial stages of their operation to capture the supply hub itself (discussed here). Starting with the east side, Russian advanced slightly west to the east of Velyka Novosilka, capturing several fields. This puts them within 5km of the town on this side, although a direct assault at this stage is highly unlikely. Moving south, Russia also made 2 small advances south of Velyka Novosilka, using small groups of infantry to clear a couple of treelines.

To the west, Russian troops continued to press on towards Novodarivka (red dot below @), capturing a large area of fields south of the village, as well as pushing up on the west side. Initial reports suggest assaults may have already begun on Novodarivka, however as of this map update this could not be confirmed.

On the Oskil River front, over the past few days Russian troops captured the last few buildings of Pershotravneve, and have reached the outskirts of the neighbouring village of Kopanky. Given its size Ukraine is unlikely to hold Kopanky for long, and will be forced to retreat into the surrounding treelines.

Heading to the Siversk front next, where Russia has reactivated the southern side of the front after months of inactivity. A small number of Russsian troops crossed the small Bakhmutovka River, advancing into the fields south of Fedorivka. This village will likely come under assault within the next day or two, and its capture would open the way for further Russian advances into the fields west of Siversk.

South of Chasiv Yar, Russian troops restarted operations along the canal, advancing north out of Kurdyumivka and capturing a few fields. This area has gone under the radar for most of this year, as the focus for both sides has been on Chasiv Yar (north of here), and Toretsk (southwest of here). With how few troops are in this area, and how small Ukraine’s area of control is, Russia will likely capture the remainder of the fields east of the canal within the next 3-4 days.

Russian recon troops also crossed the canal further north, although no confirmable advances were made. Their activity in this area suggests Russia is considering a push towards Bila Hora, or at least trying to secure the area south of Stupochky in order to facilitate an attack on Chasiv Yar (just off map north) from the south.

Following on from Picture 4, Russian assault groups crossed the Solona River, capturing Hryhorivka and Petrivka. Ukraine had mostly been knocked out/forced to retreat by this point owing to the threat of supplies being cut, so the clearing of these villages was relatively straightforward. This advance opens the way for further assaults north (towards Dachenske or Vidrodzhennia), or continuing west along the Solona River (to Zhovte).

Russia also captured 2 large fields north of Selydove, as they gradually clear the area.

Following on from Picture 5, on the north side of the reservoir Russia continued advancing out of Illinka, capturing some of the adjacent fields. Clashes have also begun on the outskirts of Nova Illinka and Berestky, although the outcome of these is currently unknown.

To the south, Ukraine defences around Kurakhovo have collapsed, with Russia easily seizing control of most of the several layers of trenches, bunkers and ditches over the last 48 hours. You’re likely sick of hearing me write this by now, but once again Ukraine’s lack of infantry is dooming them, with the few troops they did have being stretched out trying to cover too wide an area, resulting in them either being easily wiped out or retreating back into Kurakhove. The town was one of the most well defended places in Ukraine, with multiple layers of dense defences, ditches, tunnels and minefields surrounding the entire eastern and southern side, but even these are worthless if you cannot man them properly.

Russia also seized control of the remainder of Dalnje (bottom red dot), enabling further advances in the fields to the west. This puts Ukraine in a very vulnerable positions, as now Russian can attack Kurakhove from the south, on top of their current assaults from within the eastern side of the town. Its also now possible for Russia to push west along the outer ring of Ukrainian defences, towards the area north of Yantarne, which could put them in a position to encircle Kurakhove. Ukraine should begin preparing to retreat from Kurakhove now, but given their track record they will likely try hold the town for a while longer.

Just slightly further south of the Picture 12, at the same time as the events above Russian troops also made large gains in the fields north and east of the Sukhi Yaly River, including capturing the last part of Antonivka. I mentioned this in a comment on the last update, but Ukraine is now in full retreat in this area, having to give up on 6 separate settlements to avoid a complete encirclement. As Suriyak shows on the map, there is currently only a 6km gap between Russian positions on each side, and only 1 single proper road out of the area, so Ukraine will undoubtably take casualties as they retreat. It will still take Russia some days to clear this area and take out stragglers who couldn’t retreat in time.

To the west, Russian troops also pushed out of Maksymivka, capturing a large area of fields. Russia may be considering making a move on Sukhi Yaly or Kostiantynopolske in the near future, as part of their efforts to cut Kurakhove off (see comment below).

Following on from Picture 7, Russian troops made further advances north of Rivnopil, as well as capturing some more field areas to the north of Levadne. The Russian spearhead on the east side is now just 3.4km away from the main road from Velyka Novosilka to Hulyaipole, although the small stream and lake in the area will prevent them from heading directly north and slow them down a little bit.

On the Hulyaipole front, following a few days of intense shelling/bombing, Russian troops reactivated this front (almost no movement in over a year), and have starting advancing towards Hulyaipole from multiple directions. So far Russia has only employed a few smaller groups of troops, and has captured multiple fields, but will likely commit even more as they kick off what is likely a Zaporizhia offensive.

To reiterate what I’ve mentioned before, Hulyiapole is a logistics hub on the Zaporizhia front, which supplies most, if not all of the eastern Zaporizhia front line. If Russia captures it, it will push Ukrainian logistics much further back, and will make it significantly more inefficient to supply this part of the front (Hulyaipole sits on the intersection of multiple main roads).

Exactly a month ago I described the 3 likely options for a Zaporizhia offensive, so if you want to know more about how this could play out then you should have a read of that comment chain.

On the Robotyne front, similar to the above, after several days of bombardments Russian small Russian assault groups began advancing north, capturing multiple trenches and several fields. The former Robotyne salient is all but gone now, and Russia is posturing for an eventual assault on the other Zaporizhia front supply hub of Orikhiv (off map north).

Almost identically to Hulyaipole, the loss of Orikhiv would push Ukrainian logistics much further back, and be significantly more inefficient to supply this area. In this case, Orikhiv supplies most (but not all) of the western Zaporizhia front line.