RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 995 to 998 of the War - Suriyakmaps

This post starts off in an area we’ve not been to in a very long time; Chernihiv Oblast. I covered this advance in the additional comments section of the last post, but to summarise; a small number of Russian recon troops crossed the Chernihiv/Bryansk Border and entered the villages of Muravi, Novoselivka, Kolos, and Hremyach (video 1, video 2, photos 1). Like most other border villages in Ukraine and Russia, this area has long since been abandoned/evacuated, and there is no permanent presence of Ukrainian troops here, so it was very easy for them to simply walk in. Theres a good chance Ukrainian border guards were not even aware Russian troops were here until the footage was posted.

Similar to the other small border incursions that both sides have been doing, this was mostly done as a distraction, to force a Ukrainian response, and to probe for weaknesses. These few Russian troops likely left the area before the footage was even posted, and it could be retaken by Ukraine with the same ease as Russia captured it. This area is also very similar to Otruba in Kursk, where Russia abandoned the 1 village on the opposite side of the Seym River near the border as there was no point trying to hold it.

On the Oskil River front, Russian troops made a small advance west of Karmazynivka, capturing some fields near the Luhansk/Kharkiv Border. This is one of the few parts of this front this isn’t all that active (comparatively at least), but Russia is still probing and making small advances whilst Ukraine is distracted with developments elsewhere

West of Selydove, Russia troops expanding their control of the fields around Novooleksiivka, moving both west, as well as to the north. The northern advance also captured the eastern side of Yuriivka, which will likely fall within the next 2 to 3 days. Pustynka is also being threatened by these advances, and will likely meet the same fate due to also being a small village with no defences.

On the Siversk front, Ukraine counterattacked in Verkhnokamyanske (red dot below y) over the past few weeks, recapturing the central and eastern sides of the village. To the north, geolocated footage has confirmed that Ukraine still controls the fields and hills, so the grey zone has been changed back to Ukrainian control. The situation in the area further north in the hills near the Siverskyi Donets River is still murky, so Suriyak has left this as greyzone. The long drawn out fighting on this front will continue for many months to come.

In Toretsk, the back and forth fighting we’ve talked about many times continues for another day. Starting on the north side, a small number of Russian infantry have continued making progress in the forest area, and have now pushed into the remote suburb of Toretsk. This spot is very disconnected from the bulk of the town, hence why Ukraine hasn’t been fighting for it. However, if Russia keeps moving west, they will reach the northern streets of Toretsk and opening up yet another side for assaults on Ukrainian positions.

Further south, in central Toretsk Russian assault groups made a little more progress, capturing some more of the houses north of the main road.

Slightly south of Toretsk, a small number of Ukrainian troops continued their attacks in the forest area from the previous update, and have entered the small hospital. They are unlikely to be able to hold here long, due to how exposed this area is to Russian attacks from all sides.

North of Kurakhove, Russian forces have continued to press the attack to the west, capturing several fields and the treelines along the stream northeast of Berestky. The battle for Berestky and Nova Illinka has also already begun, with the first Russian attacks being reported. The loss of these would doom Ukraine’s hold of the area north of the reservoir, and allow Russia to reach Stari Terny to cut off Ukrainian supplies to Kurakhove.

Northwest of Kharkiv city, Russian recon troops crossed the border and entered the village of Sotnytskyi Kozachok. If the name sounds familiar, its because they did this exact same crossing in this village back in July. Similar to back then, these Russian troops have likely already left, and Ukraine will move in to clear the village in a few days. Russia will then use the opportunity to try strike the few Ukrainian troops who do arrive to conduct the clearing operation.

The most notable part of this border crossing is that it has occurred almost simultaneously with the one in Chernihiv region discussed in picture 1. We haven’t seen multiple border crossings in different areas in a long time, although it does not necessarily mean anything.

Over in Kupyansk, we now have the answer to the question from the previous update of whether Russia managed to get a foothold, or Ukraine drove them out. Contrary to the many Ukrainian claims, Russia was successfully able to reinforce the troops that broke into the city, and has established an area of control on either side of the railway, capturing the forest/field area north of Kupyansk, as well as the Fodder plant and other industrial buildings. Clashes are currently occurring over the Sugar Plant, Dairy Canning Plant, and metal plant, with Russian assault groups trying to rapidly expand their area of control. Some troops even managed to reach the main road to the western side of Kupyansk, although they were captured (note the 2 Ukrainian tanks).

The battle for Kupyansk has now begun in earnest, far quicker than I or many other thought possible. Ukraine is in quite the precarious situation here, having failed to properly protect the northern side of Kupyansk and letting Russia cross the Hnylytsya River unopposed. Because Ukraine has its forces spread out in battles in other parts of this front, they were not in position for fighting to begin in Kupyansk itself, which has let Russia make quick progress. Ukraine is having to pull back some of it troops and equipment from the other parts of the front back into Kupyansk itself to defend the town, which will complicate the situation in those areas. Whilst Ukraine can obviously still pull back to the western side of Kupyansk, and thus can always stabilise, doing so would doom the rest of the Kupyansk front and all their positions on the eastern side of the Oskil River, as without eastern Kupyansk supplying the thousands of troops there would be impossible.

In Chasiv Yar, Russian assault groups have made slightly more progress, entering the centre area of the town. As I’ve highlighted before, the fighting in Chasiv Yar is very different to essentially all other settlement battles, with both sides having a significant number of units on this front, but very few troops on the ground actually fighting. Most of the battle involves small groups of infantry making tiny advances up 1 or 2 buildings at different times of the day, whilst huge amounts of drones and artillery is used by both sides to pummel the other to prevent/enable advances. Gradually Russia is coming out on top and has slowly pushed to central Chasiv Yar over months, whilst keeping casualties far lower than if they did large scale mechanised assaults.

Following on from Picture 5, Russian troops launched another attack in the southern suburbs of Toretsk, capturing several streets of apartment buildings, and even pushing past the main road towards the west side in one area. Because not every building in the southern side of Toretsk is manned, both Russian and Ukraine can have advances in the same area on the same day, albeit at different times. In this case, whilst Ukraine has been pushing on the south side (like in Picture 5), Russian assault groups have been operating parallel to them, but heading west instead of east. Its still far too early to tell if Russia will hold these gains, as Ukraine could drive them out of this areas once again as they did a few weeks ago.

Following on from Picture 3, Russian troops continued expanding their control of the fields to the southwest, as well as quickly capturing the rest of Yuriivka (above the y). Russian command is likely wasting no time and already preparing for assaults on Pushkine and Ukrainka (for the west advance), and Pustynka (for the north advance), before Ukraine can dig in.

Following on from Picture 6, Russian assault groups entered the satellite suburb of Kurakhove, Nova Illinka, and quickly captured it, as well as entering the eastern outskirts of Berestky (red dot under r). This was to be expected, as supplying and reinforcing Nova Illinka was impossible once Russia got within striking distance of the suburb, so Ukraine has pulled its troops back into Berestky. Technically it would be possible to retreat from Illinka by swimming across the gap where the bridges used to be, and walking along the embankments into Kurakhove, but when carrying gear and possibly being wounded, as well as it being winter, this would not be feasible for the vast majority of soldiers.

Moving to the south of Kurakhove, Russian forces began to advance out of Antonivka (under the a), and have reached the outskirts of Illinka (not to be confused with the Illinka in Picture 12). Further west, Russian troops also advanced into the forest plantation, where a large proportion of Ukraine’s forces in this area are currently hiding/operating out of. Ukraine is already trying to retreat from this entire pocket, so Russian command has likely seen an opportunity to try cut some of them off by advancing through the forest to reach the main road.

To the west, Russia also captured the field south of Trudove, as assaults on the small village begin.

On the Velyka Novosilka front, Ukraine counterattacked into Makarivka, recapturing the southern side of the village. Like the Russians, they too have pulled back to their originally positions, as the village itself is so heavily destroyed there is no where to hold from. Ukraine is mostly operating out of a large trenchline just north of Makarivka, which Russia is hitting with artillery.

Back to the Oskil River front again, Russian troops cross the Zherebets River north of Nevske, and captured part of the other bank. Their goal is likely to slowly advance down to and assault the village of Novolyubivka (blue dot under u), as the bridge connecting it and Nevske is destroyed.

Back to the Chasiv Yar front, this time to the much quieter area to the north. Russians soldiers have progressively made advances on the west, east and northeastern sides of Hryhorivka over the past few days, whilst Ukraine recaptured some of the buildings within the village itself. The concern for Ukraine here is that if Russia keeps advancing on the flanks of Hryhorivka, the village will eventually be cut off. This will still take some time, as neither side is committing many forces to this area, as the bulk of their attention is on Chasiv Yar itself.

South of Chasiv Yar, Ukraine continued their counterattacks, managing to recapture the mine and some of the positions along the main road. This thwarts Russia’s attempt to enter Chasiv Yar from the south and surround the forest area, although Russia still has a firm foothold on the west side of the canal for future attacks. Ukraine will likely keep attempting counterattacks to try secure the whole of the southern flank.

Following on from Picture 12, Russian troops made another small advance in Berestky, capturing some houses and the treelines along the railway. Ukraine will have to consider abandoning Berestky if Russia keeps pushing up the railway to the north, as the only supply road is quite exposed to fire from the north side (above the u).

On the Robotyne front, Russian troops captured several fields on the eastern side, reaching the outskirts of Mala Tokmachka. It will be difficult to attack the town from this area due to the terrain and minimal surface area, but if Russia can capture more of the fields to the west and north of this advance, they will increase the chances of a successful assault.