RU POV: Russian advances from Day 1036 and 1037 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Russian Forces Advance: 3.26 km²

Advance = 3.26km2

We begin this update where we left off in the previous one, on the northern side of the Kupyansk front. Ukraine has still not contained Russia’s bridgehead on the west side of the Oskil River, with Russian troops now expanding their control in another area. Russian infantry pushed southwest of their positions in the forest are and fields next to the Oskil River, capturing part of another forest area as well as another section of the west bank of the river. This has widened the area from which Russia can set up pontoon bridges over the Oskil, as well as increasing the buffer around said bridges and the areas in which Russian troops can hide (the forests).

Ukrainian sources have all but confirmed my comments from last week, that Ukraine lacks soldiers in this area and essentially doesn’t have any troops available to try drive Russia out, let alone contain them. Ukrainian command will have to pull some of their forces off the other parts of the Kupyansk front to help reinforce the garrison in this area, as its clear they will not be able to handle it on their own.

Russian Forces Advance: 6.46 km²

Top Left Advance = 0.45km2, Top Right Advance = 0.28km2, Upper Right Advance = 0.62km2, Middle Left Advance = 3.68km2, Bottom Left Advance = 1.43km2

Heading to the Selydove/Pokrovsk front, there were Russian advances in multiple areas this day.

Context

Starting with the north side, Russian assault groups made some more progress in and around Pishchane, capturing the treeline area west of the village, as well as another street within the settlement itself. There are currently clashes occurring in the mine area on the east side of Pishchane, which is the central defence point for Ukraine. Its loss would effectively spell the end of Ukraine’s control of the village.

Context

Moving southeast, along the Solonyi River, Russia captured the last few houses of Vidrodzhennia, confirming full control of the small village, as Ukraine retreating back into Zelene. Russia also entered that village at the same time as taking Vidrodzhennia, capturing the first few houses on the west side. Holding Zelene will be quite difficult for Ukraine, owing to the open fields they need to cross to supply and reinforce the area, so they will likely be forced to retreat to their trenches to the north in the next few days.

Context

Heading southwest, Russia advanced on the south and southeastern side of Novovasylivka, capturing multiple fields and treelines, as well as a few warehouses on the southern side of the village. There is a small stream that splits Novovasylivka from Uspenivka, which will make retreating from the former difficult if Russia is able to push any further west from this advance (i.e. cuts them off from the bridge). For now there are still clashes ongoing within Novovasylivka, in the eastern streets.

Context

Continuing on south, Russia captured the fields south of Novoolenivka (captured earlier this week). There are clashing ongoing in eastern Novojelyzavetivka, but in Ukrainka Ukraine has all but abandoned the village, with Russia expected to confirm capture of the southern side within the next day. Ukraine is reportedly trying to regroup at Yasenove to defend there instead.

Russian Forces Advance: 7.58 km²

Top Advance = 3.38km2, Lower Middle Advance = 0.10km2, Bottom Advance = 4.10km2

On the Kurakhove front, only slightly south of the previous picture, Russia captured multiple fields and treelines to the northwest of Zorya (further above the y), as the continue to exploit the open fields and lack of defences on this part of the front.

Context

Moving south, within Kurakhove, Russia confirmed their capture of the last few apartment buildings in the town (likely happened 2 days ago), meaning they now control over all of central Kurakhove. The only remaining sections left is the industrial area (including the power plant) on the west side, as well as some smaller commercial buildings slightly west of this advance. Russia will almost certainly not wait, and will immediately press the attack to drive Ukraine out of this area.

In the fields south of the town, Russia has advanced to the west, capturing several parts of the trenchlines, bunkers, and ditches that protected Kurakhove. With the majority of the town under their control, Russia has freed up some troops to help in this area, as they will almost certainly try to circumvent the power plant and to cut it off from the west side.

Russian Forces Advance: 2.82 km²

Advance = 2.82km2

On the Velyka Novosilka front, a Russian mechanised group advanced on the western side, capturing several fields and a treeline, as the push to cut off the western supply road. There is only 1 field that separates them from said road now, and its unlikely Ukraine will be able to stop them from taking it given their failure to halt advances on this side.

Russian Forces Advance: 1.88 km²

Advance = 1.88km2

On the Robotyne front, over the past week Russia made a small advance northwest of the village, capturing some dugouts and a few fields. As with most advances on this front, it was opportunistic and part of the slow campaign they’ve been conducting throughout this year, so don’t expect another advance here anytime soon.

Russian Forces Advance: 0.10 km²

Advance = 0.10km2

Following on from picture 1, in Dvorichna, a Russian assault group has finally entered the centre of the southern side of the town, capturing many of the buildings there. As mentioned in picture 1, Ukraine has so little infantry here that Russia is easily able to take building after building (most empty), with their only real threat being Ukrainian drones. This has allowed them to make decent progress with only a few troops in small groups, compared to the many assault groups that are usually involved in town battles.

Russian Forces Advance: 0.96 km²

Advance = 0.96km2

Moving onto the Oskil River front, Russian assault groups cleared another section of Zahryzove as well as the adjacent forest area. There is still a few buildings to the south of this advance for Russia to capture before they control the whole village, which will take some time to get to due to how separated they are from the bulk of Zahryzove.

Russian Forces Advance: 6.50 km²

Top Advance = 0.76km2, Upper Right Advance = 0.27km2, Middle Left advance = 2.39km2, Bottom Advance = 3.08km2

Following on from picture 2, Russia made more progress in multiple areas, same as the previous day. Starting with the north side again, Russia captured the field to the southeast of Pishchane, as assaults on the mine area continue. This field naturally came under Russian control as Ukraine could no longer contest it due to the fighting within the village.

Context

To the east, Russian assault groups captured most of the remainder of Dachenske over the past 2 days. There still remains a few buildings slightly north of this advance, but Ukraine has likely withdrawn to the north over the Solonyi River, so they won’t be difficult to capture. Russian command might consider attacking Zelene from the east side (on top of the west side mentioned in picture 2), but may also believe heading northeast towards Lysivka (off map), may be a better option.

Context

To the southwest, with clashes ongoing in Novojelyzavetivka, a separate Russian assault group has advanced through the fields to the north of the settlement, possibly in an attempt to circumvent the small town and attack Nadiivka. There are some trench networks north of the village, but given the poor state of Ukraine’s forces, its questionable if they are even manned.

At the same time, Russia also captured several fields south of Novojelyzavetivka, as well as the last half of Ukrainka (now under full Russian control). Both sides sources are already reporting Russia is getting ready to hit Yasenove, as Ukrainka fell with minimal fighting and so they give Ukraine as little time to prepare as possible. There are no defences between Ukrainka and Yasenove, so a Russian mechanised group could easily cross the fields and reach the town with a concerted push.

Russian Forces Advance: 14.08 km²

Top Advance = 9.04km2, Bottom Advance = 5.04km2

Context

Following on from picture 3, once again just south of the previous picture, Russia has significantly expanded their control of the area around Sontsivka following its capture last week, taking over the fields north, west and south of the town, including many different treelines. The crossings Russia has around Sontsivka will allow it to push into Slovyanka or Petropavlivka, possible at the same time. As a reminder, the area between Petropavlivka and Shevchenko has several trench networks, dugouts and ditches, and so the capture of the former would mean all these area flanked by Russia (as they were all designed to defend from attacks to the south, not the north).

Context

Down south, the freed up Russian troops mentioned earlier have made quick progress in clearing the large trench network, bunkers, and ditches south of Kurakhove, and have pushed several Km west. If Russia continues this attack path, they will circumvent the industrial area altogether, and could attack Dachne (off map west), to encircle the Ukrainian forces still in Kurakhove. Ukraine will likely retreat before that happens, but given the narrow escape route and Russian positions on multiple sides, they will certainly take losses as the retreat west. Once again, Ukraine should have already started preparation to retreat, and if they haven’t, they need to begin ASAP.

Russian Forces Advance: 2.86 km²

Far Left Advance = 1.82km2, Lower Middle Advance = 1.04km2

Moving south on the same front, starting on the east side, Russian troops have captured more of the trench networks northwest of Uspenivka. There is still about half of the trench network still left to clear, as it is very big, but this should occur over the course of this week.

To the west, Russia slightly expanded control of the field area south of Kostyantynopil. There haven’t been any attempts to assault that settlement yet, with Russia angling towards Rozlyv instead. This does make sense, as just north of Rozlyv is one of the supply roads into Kostyantynopil, which can be cut if they capture the village. The other supply route via Andriivka was hit with FABs a week ago, and so Ukraine will need to set up some pontoons/bridging vehicles if they wish to use that route.

Russian Forces Advance: 1.01 km²

Advance = 1.01km2

Following on from picture 4, Russian troops pushed north of their previous advance, and have not cut off the final supply road into Velyka Novosilka. This means the town is functionally encircled, although still has a dirt route for supplies through the fields to the north (described in a comment below). Russia has mostly avoided ahead on assault of the town so far (to reduce losses), but may begin attacking from multiple sides now that Velyka Novosilka will face severe supply difficulties. Ukraine should begin retreating from the town now, although I doubt they will do so.