RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1038 to 1040 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Kicking off this update in Chasiv Yar, following on from their advance in the northern suburbs earlier this week, Russian forces have captured several more streets in the same area, as they move west. With their initial assault of the refractary plant being driven back last week, Russian is looking to improve its position before it tries to attack the industrial area once again, and this northern suburb is the ideal spot. If Russia can keep moving west, they’ll be able to circle around behind the industrial area and apartment buildings in central Chasiv Yar, and attack them from the west side (under the y, just above the lake).

Heading over to Toretsk, within the town, Russian assault groups continued to move into the northern suburbs, capturing several more streets of residential buildings as they head towards the old slag heap. On the southern side of the town, Russia recaptured the slag heap and surrounding area over the past few days, having been abandoned by Ukraine prior to that. As I predicted a few weeks ago, with Russia in control of all of central Toretsk their progress has speed up, as the only remaining areas under Ukrainian control (other than the Krymske mine) are smaller residential buildings that are much easier to clear.

Slightly southwest of Toretsk, Russia also entered the wastewater treatment plant, capturing it and the surrounding fields. There is a cemetary and forested area north of here which holds a few Ukrainian troops, but otherwise they are almost completely absent from this area.

To the west, we got our answer to the question from the previous post about Scherbynivka, with the Russian assault group that breached into the centre of the town failing to consolidate its positions. Ukraine has retaken this central town area, although Russia maintains control of the southern side of Scherbynivka.

On the Selydove front, after a few days of clashes, Russian assault groups have been confirmed to have made progress in Novojelyzavetivka, taking over half the village. Ukraine is still mounting a defence in the western half, with reinforcements from Nadiivka, but its unlikely they will be able to stall very long given previous performance of this unit on this front (owing to manpower shortages and a lack of support).

In Kurakhove, with Russia circumventing the industrial area via the fields to the south (discussed here), a separate set of Russian assault groups continued to advance within Kurakhove itself. On top of capturing the residential and commercial areas west of the apartment blocks and along the shore of the reservoir, the first Russian soldiers have broken into the thermal power plant, occupying some of the buildings on the eastern side. Clashes are currently ongoing here, with Ukraine trying to stall Russia as long as possible. They’ve already begun to evacuate the industrial area, as its clear they will be encircled if they stay much longer, and are pulling back to Dachne (off map west).

Moving from within Kurakhove to the southern side of the same front, Russia troops have cleared the last area of greyzone on the southern side of the Sukhi Yaly River between the villages of Sukhi Yaly and Kostiantynopolske. Ukraine is still present on the northern side of the river, manning the trench networks in the area and some of the buildings in Yantarne. Its difficult to tell where Russia might attempt to cross the Sukhi Yaly River, or if at all.

To the west, Russia captured a few fields to the south and southeast of Rozlyv, as they slowly move towards the village. I mentioned this last post, but Russia may be considered an attack on Rozlyv rather than Kostyantynopil, as just north of the settlement is one of the supply roads for Kostyantynopil that they could cut.

Over in Kursk, Ukraine re-entered the eastern side of Kruglenkoe, retaking the greyzone and a bit of Russian controlled territory that Russia captured earlier this week. The northwestern half of Kruglenkoe is currently under Russian control, with the central area currently sitting in the greyzone.

On the Oskil River front, over the past few days a couple of Russian assault groups have made progress in and around Terny following a few weeks pause, capturing a small amount of buildings in the centre of the village, as well as the remainder of the forest area to the east. This move will likely force Ukraine to abandon Terny altogether, as its close enough to their last viable route (the route south of the village, above the S), that Russia will intercept any supplies or troops being sent via it. Technically there are still 2 bridges into Terny over the River, however both of these are so exposed and so close to Russian lines that it would be suicidal to try use them.

I’ll also note that several Russian sources have claimed that Russia crossed the Zherebets River and captured Ivanivka (blue dot, top of map above S). There hasn’t been any footage to confirm this yet, but there are multiple sources reporting it so its worth mentioning.

Following on from Picture 1, Russia advanced several more streets west in the northern suburb of Chasiv Yar. There is about 900m left until they are on the far western side of the town.

To the north, Russian forces have managed to capture most of Hryhorivka. This took place in the background over the past month, with very infrequent reports and minimal footage as both sides concentrated on events in Chasiv Yar. There are still a handful of buildings on the northern side of Hryhorivka before Russia fully captures the settlement, but its hard to say when these will be taken due to the lack of information about events in this area. The reality is this northern flank isn’t particularly important for either side anymore, and very few troops area involved in the operations here.

Time for a name you haven’t heard in a while, but on the north side of the Ocheretyne front, Russian forces captured another field to the south of Vozdvyzhenka. This is the first movement in this area by either side since October, and that one was also the first movement in months. Once again, its questionable if anything will come of this, or if its just another small change in an area where neither side is really trying to advance.

The above was written based on my notes from that day, as I do with all my analysis. The spoiler is that I was quite wrong.

Over to the Pokrovsk/Selydove front, once again with have advances in multiple different areas. On the north side, in Pishchane, Russia took control over the mine on the west side of the village. This is the one we discussed was being fought over in the previous post, and was the main defence point for the settlement. Unless Ukraine can take it back, the remainder of Pishchane will fall under Russian control over the next few days.

To the east, Russia crossed the Solonyi River norther of Dachenske, taking up positions in the little forest area on the other side.

To the west, in Novovasylivka, continuing on from their capture of some of the southern warehouses from last post, Russia advanced slightly more in the same area, capturing the next set of warehouses and another street on the eastern side of the village. They haven’t been able to break into the central part of Novovasylivka yet, so Ukraine will continue to hold the village for the time being.

Heading south, following on from picture 3, Russia made another advance in Novojelyzavetivka, capturing a few more buildings within the village, as well as taking over the fields to the north and south of the settlement.

Back on the Kurakhove front again, this time the North side. In the last post (and a few times before that), I mentioned Russia advances around Petropavlivka and Slovyanka (off map north) would eventually allow them to capture Shevchenko by flanking the many trench networks in the area. Russian command however decided not to wait, and has launched another head-on attack on Shevchenko, this time breaching into the settlement and capturing the easternmost buildings.

Reinforcing the assault troops that made it to Shevchenko will be difficult, owing to the open ground they have to cover between Shevchenko and Stari Terny, but depending on how many soldiers Ukraine has defending Shevchenko reinforcements may not even be needed.

Back to Kursk, this time on the southern side of the front. Russian assault groups took control of Cherkasskaya Konopelka, following several days of clashes with the Ukrainian garrison. Said Ukrainian troops have withdrawn into the forest adjacent to the settlement, and will have to be cleared out before Russia can properly secure Cherkasskaya Konopelka.

Following on from Picture 2, Russia made another advance in the northern suburbs, capturing several more streets.

Following on from Picture 9, Russia did not actually stop with that individual field they captured in the previous day, and instead their assault groups have broken through into southern Vozdvyzhenka, capturing the southernmost houses and the treelines along the stream. This caught not only me off-guard, but Ukraine as well, as Russia managed to cross the stream and capture positions Ukraine has held for over 6 months.

Clashes are currently occurring in southern Vozdvyzhenka, with the Ukrainian garrison trying to stabilise the situation and drive Russia out.

Following on from picture 10, you know the drill with this area.

Starting with the northwestern side, a Russian assault group entered and capture most of the village of Vovkove. This isn’t surprising, as the settlement is very small and wasn’t really contested by Ukraine, who instead are primarily fighting in Pishchane (east of here) and Solone (southwest of here).

Moving east, Russia advancing slightly up the railway on the east side of Shevchenko, heading towards Novoukrainka. At the same time, we got our answer from the previous post about whether Russia would advance northwest of northeast after capturing Dachenske, with their assault groups heading northeast towards Lysivka, capturing the houses on the far western side. Ukraine’s defence of Lysivka over the past 3 months has been excellent, however this advance puts them in a difficult situation, as their access to the southern half of the village is now limited to some pedestrian paths over the river, and their supply from Pokrovsk can only come from directly north. Ukraine will likely lose control over the southern side of Lysivka, but the northern side will depend on how successful they are at counterattacking and alleviating the flanks.

To the southwest, in Novojelyzavetivka, Russian assault groups drove Ukraine out from the western side of the village, capturing most of the remainder of the settlement. Contrary to some Russian reports, the village has not been totally captured quite yet, as there are a handful of houses to the west along the road that are considered part of Novojelyzavetivka. These will almost certainly be captured within the next day or 2, as Russia moves onto Nadiivka, but its important to be accurate with the reporting.

Following on from picture 11, on the north side, Russia made another slight advance within Shevchenko, capturing more of the central and northern houses. This puts Russia in control of over half the village, with the other half likely to follow along within the next day or 2. The trench networks immediately north and west of Shevchenko will make it difficult for Russia to advance out of Shevchenko once they’ve taken it, unless Ukraine isn’t properly manning them.

Over in Kurakhove, Russia capturing a small area of garages and some residential buildings, which weren’t contested by Ukraine. Clashes continue in the industrial area.

To the south, Russian assault groups continued clearing the large trench network southeast of the wastewater treatment plant, capturing the remaining half (as I predicted last post). Both sides’ sources confirm Ukraine is still present in and around Yantarne, but may be considering retreating due to Russian pressure on multiple sides of the pocket.