RU POV: Russian advances from Day 1041 to 1043 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Beginning this update with Kursk, following closely after the Russian capture of Cherkasskaya Konopelka (above Fanaseevka) which was discussed last post. On the southern side of the front, over the past 2 days Russian assault groups have pushed out from Cherkasskaya Konopelka, clearing the surrounding forest area, as well as capturing the outermost streets of Makhnovka (under the a). A Ukrainian source posted a video of a Bradley shelling a building claiming them to be attacking Russian soldiers and from the Pokrovsk front, but was geolocated to within Makhnovka.

Now, whilst Makhnovka is, at least on maps, considered a separate settlement to Sudzha, it is effectively a suburb of the town, being connected to Sudzha and administrated from there. Thus you could say the second battle for Sudzha has begun, otherwise this is a battle taking place to the immediate south of the town. Depending on Russian progress here, it could force Ukraine to abandon some of the outer areas of the front to defend Sudzha itself, as the town is the central point for all of Ukraine’s operations in Kursk. I don’t believe Russian command wants to do a siege of Sudzha, and would prefer to cut off the town and force Ukraine to abandon Kursk altogether, but slow progress on the western and southern sides of Kursk may compel them to attempt it.

At the same time as this, in the same area, a separate Russian assault group heading northwest across the Sudzha River and captured a small forest area on the other side near Kurilovka (under the i). This is likely part of Russia’s attempts to capture Kurilovka, as they can advance from this forest area into the northern side of the village from behind.

In Terny, following their advances in the forest area east of the village, Russia’s assault group have now captured most of the remainder of the settlement, with only a few mostly-destroyed houses on the southern side left to take. Once Terny is captured, Russia will just continue on south with their existing forces into Yampolivka, where the remaining Ukrainian troops from Terny fled to.

On the Pokrovsk front, Russia captured the remaining section of Vovkove, following their entry into the settlement the previous day. To reiterate what I said last post, this happened very quickly and easily for Russia as Ukraine was not contesting this tiny village, and had chosen to defend from elsewhere.

A little to the southwest, the first Russian assault group entered Solone, capturing the eastern side of the village. Whilst Solone is slightly bigger than Vovkove, it will likely meet the same fate, as Ukraine just doesn’t have the forces or defences prepared to defend such a small settlement.

Moving to an area we haven’t been to in a while, on the southern side of the Siversk front, there have been a few changes throughout December that couldn’t be confirmed until now. To start with, Russia was forced to pull back from Vyimka (above the u) for a second time. This isn’t all that surprising, as to reiterate from last time, Vyimka was a small farming community abandoned long before the war began, with the majority of its buildings demolished years ago. It is essentially an open field area with a few trees, which is also the reason Ukraine won’t move back in either.

A little south of this, Russia expanding their control of the fields west of the railway, reaching the treeline on the west side. To finally push past Vyimka will require control of the fields to the west (area under the @ and S), so Russia is likely positioning themselves to slowly advance here.

To the northwest, throughout December Russia consolidated their control of the hills around Ivano-Darivka, capturing some more dugouts and small trenches. Ukraine has been counterattacking here occasionally, but for the most part this area is primarily drone warfare with infrequent position battles.

On the Toretsk front, coinciding with their efforts towards Scherebynivka (under the i), on the west side of the Kryvyi Torets River, Russian forces advanced into Leonidivka for a second time. This attempt differs from their first dash into the settlement back in late September, with Russia now controlling the adjacent fields and treelines (i.e. much more secure reinforcement route). Given this, its likely Russia will capture Leonidivka on this attempt, although advancing much further north into Novospaske will require them to capture the fields and treelines northwest.

In Kurakhove, following the clashes in the eastern side of the power plant and reports of evacuation by Ukraine (mentioned last post), Russia has quickly seized the entirety of the thermal power plant and the majority of the industrial area from Ukraine. It had obviously become clear last week that with this area being gradually cut off by Russia via the fields, Ukraine was never going to be able to do a ‘last stand’ here to stall Russia for a few weeks longer, and thus had to retreat to Dachne (slightly off map west).

Suriyak is being cautious as usual and has not marked the remaining industrial facility on the west side as Russian controlled yet, but this has almost certainly been abandoned by Ukraine at the same time as the rest of the industrial area, and its just a matter of waiting for confirmation of it being cleared.

Following on from picture 3, the Russian assault group that captured Vovkove has pushed out west, moving into the treelines along the stream in that area. As Suriyak has highlighted on the picture, this puts Russia about 2km away from physically cutting the western highway into Pokrovsk, which had already ceased use due to the threat of Russian drones a month ago. Reaching Kotlyne would allow Russia to push along the railway line west towards Udachne and the coking coal mine (north of Udachne), and/or to head further north through the fields towards the other highways into Pokrovsk.

Adjacent to the above advance, Russia made slightly more progress in Solone, capturing a few more houses in the centre of the village. Whilst there were some small clashes, the battle for the village is quickly drawing to a close, with Ukraine likely to be driven out within the next 48 hours.

Following on from Picture 5, this time starting within Toretsk. Russia’s progress in the town continues to gather speed, with Russian assault groups captured multiple areas of residential buildings on the northwest, north and northeast side of Toretsk. Ukraine simply cannot effectively defend from the much smaller residential buildings, and is unable to stop the Russian assault groups with their own units. They still control the mine in Krymske, however its location on the northeastern side means it isn’t useful for defending the northwestern side of Toretsk. Ukrainian command is likely already considering their retreat from the town, but will continue to contest it for a little while longer.

To the southwest, in Scherebynivka, Russia has once again entered the central section of the town, following their failure to consolidate positions in their assault last week. A large portion of this central area is in the grey zone as its unclear how much progress Russia’s troops made (as the video evidence is heavily edited), and where Ukraine might mount a defence from.

On the northern Ocheretyne front, following on from their sudden entry into Vozdvyzhenka last update, over the past 2 days Russian forces quickly took out the Ukrainian garrison in the village, forcing the few remaining troops to retreat and allowing Russia to capture the settlement. They’ve also wasted no time in exploiting the element of surprise, and have also captured the fields and treelines to the south and southwest of Vozdvyzhenka (including some trenches and a large trench network).

As I’ve previously mentioned, Ukraine was just not expecting this attack, and did not have the forces in place to defend this area. Ukraine should be able to stabilise here if they quickly redeploy one of the units based out of Pokrovsk, however that would weaken their lines there somewhat when they are already having issues south and southwest of the city.

If Russia can exploit this properly, they could cut off the highway between Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad and Kostyantynivka, which whilst it wouldn’t totally rob the latter of supplies, it will make it a lot more difficult and inhibit unit rotation/transfers through the area. The problem for Russia is the around around the highway is heavily fortified, with numerous ditches, bunkers and trench networks (see comment below), so it will not be easy to advance here.

Following on from picture 7, on the north side, that same assault group advanced slightly more in the treelines west of Vovkove. No clear information about whether they intend to head north or continue west yet.

Further south, Russia captured most the remainder of Solone (as mentioned above), with only a handful of houses on the west side still left to clear. At the same time, a separate Russian assault group has made progress within Novovasylivka on the south side of the Solona River, capturing a few more streets of the village. There are still clashes ongoing in the central area, so the battle is not yet over.

Moving down south, following their capture of most of Novojelyzavetivka, a Russian assault group pushed slightly south of the settlement, crossing the reservoir and occupying the treelines next to the tree plantation. This group will either head northwest through the plantation towards southern Nadiivka, or will advance south towards the cluster of settlements around Novoandriivka.

On the Kurakhove front, following on from the previous update, Russia captured the remainder of Shevchenko, with Ukraine pulling back to the trench networks adjacent to the village. As mentioned last time, these trench networks around Shevchenko will make it difficult for Russia to push out of Shevchenko, although not impossible.

Following on from picture 6, Russian troops were confirmed to have cleared the last of the industrial area, which means they have fully captured Kurakhove. The battle began at the end of October, and lasted slightly over 2 months, falling in the early hours of 1 January 2025. This also means my prediction from a while back of Kurakhove falling by the end of 2024 to a couple of days after was spot on. That same comment also had me predict Toretsk falling in early January, so we’ll have to see how that goes.

With the fall of Kurakhove, the remainder of the Kurakhove pocket will soon fall to Russia, as Ukraine pulls back towards Ulakly and Kostyantynopil to avoid encirclement. Theres little chance Ukraine will be able to prevent Russia from continuing to advance in western Donetsk Oblast and entering Dnipro Oblast. Kurakhove will be key in this, with Russia already beginning to set the town up as a forward supply hub and operating base for the coming advances west.