RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1044 to 1046 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Kicking off this update on the Pokrovsk front, we’re back in Novovasylivka. Following on from their progress the previous day, Russian troops captured several more streets of the village. The only area left to clear are the warehouses on the western side of Novovasylivka, which should fall within the next day or 2.

To the Kurakhove front, starting on the north side, Russian forces pushed across the fields and entered the eastern houses of Petropavlivka (mentioned last update). The village is incredibly small, and so will fall quite quickly now that a Russian assault group has a foothold.

To the south, Russia made a small advance east of Yantarne (bottom blue dot), captured a few treelines and some dugouts. Ukraine still maintains a small garrison in and around Yantarne, so that will be Russia’s next target in this area.

To an area we haven’t been to in a while, the central Zaporizhia front. A small Russia group made a slight advance in the eastern side of Bilohirya (above the m), taking up positions in the ruined houses. We’re unlikely to see many updates in this area for a while, as its mainly positional fighting and occasional small attacks.

On the northern Kupyansk front, Russia continued to expand its beachhead on the west side of the Oskil River, capturing the remainder of the small forest area near Zapadne. This had been reported a little over a week ago, but wasn’t confirmed until now. Russia is highly likely to attack Zapadne, as it would allow them to take control over the mrain road in this area and complicate Ukrainian reinforcements to Dvorichna (have to go the long way around).

Still, neither side has many troops in this area, so the slow Russian advances will continue in the short term, but there won’t be any larger attacks.

On the Oskil River front, just north of Terny, confirmation was received that Russia had indeed crossed the Zherebets River a few weeks ago (which I briefly mentioned here). They took over about half of Ivanivka, with the remaining section being fought over currently. The crossings here are quite precarious and exposed, but if Russia can secure Ivanivka and the western side of the river, it will open up opportunities for advances west and southwest, and may help them break the stalemate around Torske (below the u).

Following on from picture 1, starting with the west side, Russia captured the previously mentioned warehouses in western Novovasylivka, confirming their full control of the settlement. They’ll likely take a brief break before moving onto neighbouring Uspenivka.

Northwest, Russia moved out of Vovkove (captured last week), and headed north through the fields towards Kotlyne. Clashes are currently taking place next to the highway and railway lines, as Ukraine tries to prevent Russia from physically cutting them off (preventing their use by Ukraine). Russia will need to be careful with how they approach Kotlyne, as if they do not expand their flanks, they could be cut off by one of the frequent mechanised counterattacks Ukraine likes to conduct.

To the east, Russia made a little more progress in Zelene, capturing the houses on the eastern side of the village. Ukraine is still trying to hold their positions in the central area of the settlement, but will likely be forced to retreat into the trench networks immediately north of Zelene (one of which you can see about this advance).

West of Velyka Novosilka, Russia captured a few more fields south of the western road, expanding their spearhead a little bit. Whilst there are many drone attacks and frequent shelling of the town itself, Russia has not decided to try for an assault, aiming to improve their position of the flanks first.

Back to the Oskil River front, this time the central area. A Russian assault group made a small advance into the farming community of Nadiya, capturing most of the buildings here. Other than this, very little activity by either side on this part of the front for the past month.

Heading to Chasiv Yar, Russia is reportedly making another attempt on the Refractary Plant, at the same time as they are advancing in the northern suburbs. Very little information by either side’s sources on this, so not much I can comment on.

To the south of the town, Ukraine gradually recaptured part of the forest area on the west side of the canal over the past 2 to 3 weeks, continuing from their counterattack in this area in November. Back then, unable to make much more progress on this southern flank, Russia dug in with forces and has slowly been driven back by Ukraine since November. Whilst not critical, this does mean that Russia will not be able to launch another direction of attack on Chasiv Yar (i.e. the south side), and so will have to make do with their existing forces in the centre of the town.

In Toretsk, Russian assault groups continued making progress on the north side of the town, capturing the streets leading up to the small slag heap. Ukraine reportedly has some troops in this area, so Russia will likely need to attack the slag heap and surrounding buildings if they wish to make more progress in reaching the northern edge of Toretsk.

On the southern side of Toretsk, Russia was confirmed to have cleared the last of the streets of the southernmost suburb of the town. Russia likely took this area a few weeks ago, owing to Ukraine not being able to reinforce the few soldiers they had here, but it took a while for Russia’s control to actually be verified. The last streets of southern Toretsk not under Russian control (under the r) are in a similar situation, just waiting for confirmation that they have entered and taken control of that area.

On the northern Ocheretyne front for another update, Russia has begun to advance through the fields north of Novooleksandrivka (under the y). This relates to Russia recognising the weakness of the Ukrainian units in this area, and capturing Vozdvyzhenka (above the u) and the surrounding area a few days prior (discussed last update). Despite a lack of many defences through this large field area, Russia hasn’t made an attempt to advance here until now.

Going back to my notes and previous comments from mid-2024, when Russia captured Novooleksandrivka, they chose not to try push north here for a few reasons:

The initial assault attempt on Vozdvyzhenka failed, with Ukraine building up defences and troops in that area, so Russia wasn’t able to advance northwest.

The northern fields may not have many defences, but they sit in a bit of a low ground compared to Ukrainian positions along the Bychok River (runs through Baranivka). The treelines in these fields also have very few gaps between them, so making the use of vehicles a bit difficult.

The main factor was that shortly after Russia took Novooleksandrivka, the Prohres breakout occurred, leading to significant Russian advances west, and southwest (Selydove, Novohrodivka, Hrodivka, etc.). Russia chose to dedicate its forces to expanding the breakout, rather than attacking into somewhat unfavourable terrain, and simply left a garrison in Novooleksandrivka who made no attempt to advance.

Seeing an opening, Russia has now chosen to go on the attack in this area, and has quickly taken over multiple fields on the way to Baranivka. Ukraine will absolutely respond to this, as they do have units in Pokrovsk that they can send to reinforce this area, however Russia will make decent progress before Ukraine can stabilise the situation.

Back to the Pokrovsk front, this time a bit further east. Around Lysivka, Russian forces captured the southern farm, as well as a warehouse slightly north of the village. Ukraine is gradually losing control of the southern side of the settlement, but has so far been able to maintain its positions on the north side. Neighbouring Sukhyi Yar has gradually fallen more into the greyzone, as the buildings there are destroyed by artillery and drones.

Following on from Picture 2, Russian assault groups captured the remainder of Petropavlivka, driving out Ukraine’s garrison and capturing a few troops. There is a video of some of the battle for this settlement, including of several Ukrainian vehicles being hit whilst trying to evacuate the garrison, but it hasn’t been posted to the sub yet. Said video also shows that Ukraine is likely abandoning the trench networks south of Petropavlivka, to avoid being cut off, so that area will likely fall into Russian hands within the next day or 2.

Southwest of Kurakhove, Russia captured a few more fields near the waste treatment plant, straightening the frontline. They are gradually moving further west, and will be planning an assault on Dachne.