RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1047 and 1048 of the War - Suriyakmaps

We kick off with the highly anticipated start of a new Ukrainian offensive in Kursk…… or was it? Theres a lot of conflicting information and claims from various sources, owing to a lack of photos and footage from both sides (due to OPSEC), but theres enough to establish the general timeline. This section is going to cover the first 2 days (Sunday and Monday), and will only link to stuff posted on the sub. There is more videos and photos on Telegram I would like to link to, but Reddit blocks those so you’ll have to make do.

Starting with the details, in the morning of Sunday 5 January, Ukraine launched several different attacks in Kursk in a number of different areas, with the primary push occurring on the east side of the front.

At least 2 separate large Ukrainian armoured columns (video 1, video 2, photos 1) pushed out from Sudzha under heavy electronic warfare cover (video 1, heading northeast along the fields past Martynovka. Their goal was to reach the villages of Berdin and Novosotnitskii, approximately 5km away from Ukraine’s positions on the frontline at the time, as well as the forest area to the south of both settlements. From video evidence and multiple different reports, we know that whilst both Ukrainian columns suffered losses on the way to their targets (video 1, video 2, video 3, photos 1), some vehicles did make it and were able to drop off Ukrainian infantry in the forest area and in Berdin. Ukrainian infantry quickly took up positions in said forest area and took over Berdin within the first few hours. Most of the surviving vehicles then retreated back to Sudzha, although a portion of them stayed to support the infantry assaults.

They then moved onto neighbouring Novosotnitskii, where with some vehicle support they clashed with the Russian defenders based there. This is where the momentum quickly ground to a halt, with most of the vehicles that supported the attacks on Novosotnitskii being taken out or disabled (video 1) quite quickly by either mines or Russian ATGMs. Ukraine was able to capture the western side of the village, but most of the centre and the whole of the east side was firmly under Russian control, as clashes continued into the night of Sunday.

Despite the heavy EW, Russia wasted no time in harassing and bombing out the Ukrainian forces that made it into the forest area, and Berdin, utilising Fibre-optic FPVs (EW immune), Fabs, and artillery to hammer Ukrainian positions. Aiming for the forest area to drop infantry off, who could then join those dropped off directly in Berdin was a good idea, however it also meant a lot of Ukraine’s soldiers who made it were concentrated in one area, allowing Russia to hammer them. This continued into the night and the next day, as the forest was effectively their forward base for the Ukrainian force. Ukraine did drop off a few infantry in some of the other treelines they captured, but the vast majority of their effort was put towards taking Berdin and Novosotnitskii.

There were no confirmed territorial changes on Monday (day 2 of the attack), as heavy clashes continued between the opposing sides in Novosotnitskii, and Russia continued to hit Ukrainian infantry in Berdin and the forest area. There was another Ukrainian column reported to have been sent to reinforce their troops, although smaller than the previous ones.

Now, typically I will only comment on things that fall within the days shown on the post (in this case Day 1047 and 1048), and will leave comments on the next days to the next post. Because this is a hot topic, and I’m not sure when the next post will be out, I’ll briefly talk about Day 1049 (Tuesday, as in today). Whilst the day is obviously not over, a good amount of information is coming out, and its looking like overall Ukraine’s attack was a failure. Many different sources have reported that Russia pushed Ukraine out of Novosotnitskii overnight, and advanced into Berdin this morning. Judging by the very recent (as in last few hours) photos and videos from Berdin, Ukraine has almost certainly lost the village, and took many casualties and POWs (video 1, video 2). They still control the forest area and all of the fields they took on Sunday, but their actual goal of the 2 villages was not achieved, and their surviving force is currently being picked off. A big part of the problem for Ukraine is how far from friendly lines this attack took them, meaning their vehicles are exposed to drones, helicopters and ATGMs for a long time, and casualty evacuation is almost impossible. Not enough of their forces successfully reached their destination to be able to take over both settlements, and they simply took too many losses from Russian artillery, drones and FABs as they set up in the forest area and Berdin to be able to last long against a Russian counterattack. I’ll leave it here for now, and properly cover Day 1049 next post.

Edit: Some of the photos and videos from Berdin have started to be posted in the sub. Theres a lot more than that on Russian Telegram, but you should get the idea. Many Russian drones were used.

As for my overall thoughts on the Ukrainian attack, I’ll be keeping it separate from the facts/analysis and putting it in a comment below.

There were 2 other attacks reported being launched at about the same time as the big one towards Berdin. The was a small Ukrainian mechanised group moving towards Novoivanovka (northwest Kursk, under the zoom in picture), although theres minimal information on what happened or if the attack broke off. The second was actually a Russian mechanised group, which headed towards Malaya Loknya (above the k). This too has very little information about what happened, however there was a lot of Russian drone activity in that area, including multiple Ukrainian vehicles being hit around Malaya Loknya (video 1, video 2, video 3, video 4).

Another advance that has fallen under the radar is in Makhnovka, south of Sudzha. Following on from their previous progress, a small amount of Russian infantry have continued advancing through the suburb, capturing more houses in the southern streets. Ukraine has tried to flush these infantry groups out, to little success, although these attempts haven’t been particularly determined. If Russia keeps advancing through these streets as the currently are, they’ll reach central Sudzha in a few weeks, which makes Ukraines lack of proper counterattacks interesting. Obviously these small groups won’t actually reach central Sudzha in that timeframe, as they’ll eventually run into the Sudzha River and larger buildings, but this is still a threat to Ukraine’s hub and centre of operations.

Heading over to the Kupyansk front, Russian infantry made another advance on the west side of the Oskil River, pushing south of the forest area they captured a few days ago, and taking over several treelines south of Zapadne. This is the edge of a small hill, with the ground sloping downwards as you head south to Kalynove. Russia is likely advancing here so they can dart across to the forest area just west of this advance, and move into Zapadne from the south, rather than having to try assault it across open ground (remember, no vehicles here).

On the Oskil River front, in Ivanivka, Russia made another small advance in the village, taking over a few more houses. Ukraine for the most part has pulled out from this area, so the rest of the settlement will fall within the next day or 2.

In Chasiv Yar, Russian assault groups have finally decided to cross the railway, and looped around behind the refractary plant and apartment buildings. They have captured the railway station and the first of the larger buildings in centre Chasiv Yar, as they aim to advance from the northwest and attack Ukrainian positions in the refractory plant from behind. If this sounds familiar, its because I mentioned this likely being their plan last week. Still, as with all the fighting in this town, it will not be easy for Russia to clear out the apartment buildings and the Ukrainian defenders, so expect the fighting here to continue for some time.

Over in Toretsk, Russia captured more of the residential areas in the town, with a small segment on the northwest side, and the last portion of the southern suburbs (was greyzone). With the latter advance, Russia has now secured southern Toretsk and can shift its attention to clearing the fields to the west, and possibly capturing the large slag heap for use against Ukrainian positions further northwest.

To the west, Russia made a small advance in Scherbynivka, capturing some more houses in the centre of the town. Clashes continue over this area, with Ukraine showing no sign of retreating.

Over on the Ocheretyne front, following their advances out of Vozdvyzhenka last week, Russia continued to press the attack and headed to the next village, Yelyzavetivka. A Russian assault group reached the east side of the settlement, and ran into 2 Ukrainian tanks that had just entered Yelyzavetivka themselves. The Russian tanks came out on top, with 1 Ukrainian tank knocked out in the village, and the second shown being hit by a drone as it retreated. This assault group dropped off its infantry following this, who are currently in the process of clearing the village. Given the lack of Ukrainian fire from the ground on the Russian group, its likely only a small garrison is present in Yelyzavetivka.

On the Kurakhove front, Russian troops captured multiple trench networks between Petropavlivka (captured yesterday) and Shevchenko (captured last week), which I mentioned in the previous post. Due to Russia controlling both settlements it was not feasible for Ukraine to hold their positions here, so they retreated to the next series of trench networks to the west. Russia will be looking to capture Slovyanka (north of this advance), before continuing their advance west towards Andriivka.

On the Pokrovsk front, Russian troops made a small advance in the treelines north of Pischane, as they try to flank the village. Ukrainian forces have held well in Pischane, lasting longer than I had thought they would, but it looks like they will gradually be forced to retreat from their remaining section of the village.

To the east, Russia made another small advance within Zelene, capturing some more houses. Progress should speed up from now, as Ukraine has lost access to the only road left to the village, and can’t really reinforce/resupply their infantry via the fields due to the reported mines.

Over in Velyka Novosilka, Russian forces made a small advance to the west of the town, aiming for the gap between Neskuchne (above the y) and Vremivka (further above the y). Like with Storozheve and Makarivka in December (both south of this advance), Russia has pushed through the fields to the west of this settlement chain and has forced a Ukrainian retreat by threatening to cut off the troops in these settlements via an attack from the west side. If Russia can successfully repeat this strategy for a third time, they will force Ukraine to pull out of Neskuchne, and will enter Vremivka (connected to Velyka Novosilka). The only caveat here, is that unlikely with Storozheve and Makarivka, the area they are trying to cut isn’t fields and trees, but a row of houses.

Following on from picture 1, starting with the east side, clashes continued in and around Berdin, as Russia counterattack from Rozgrebli. I’ve covered most of the events of this day during picture 1, so I won’t repeat that here.

To the west, some groups of Russian infantry moved out of Novoivanovka, and pushed into Leonidovo. Despite capturing Novoivanovka over a month ago, Russia was unable to move into Leonidovo due to the area around the latter being very heavily mined. Russia had initially tried to go around Leonidovo via the road to the north, capturing that treeline, but wasn’t able to enter Leonidovo from that side. Thus, Russia today sent in a few groups of infantry on foot, whilst eyes were on the Ukrainian attacks on the east side of Kursk. These Russian troops quickly captured the village, and are currently clashing with Ukrainian troops in Aleksandriya (not a settlement, just some houses in the forest). Capturing this area would remove a thorn in Russia’s side, and allow them to assault the settlements east of here more easily (don’t have to worry about ATGMs from Leonidovo).

Following on from picture 3, Russia captured the remainder of Ivanivka, and some of the surrounding fields/treelines, following the Ukrainian withdrawal. This gives Russia a good foothold on the west side of the Zherebets River for further operations west, although getting vehicles and troops across the few paths over the river is quite risky (e.g. funnelled into a narrow area, can only go forwards or backwards). Russia will likely try expanding this foothold a bit before bringing more forces across, with the adjacent treelines and forest area between Ivanivka and Bilohorivka being the likely targets.

North on the same front, following their capture of Lozova last week, Russian forces have pushed out west, capturing multiple fields and a trench network in a mechanised assault. Theres several other trench networks slightly west of this assault that will be the next target for this Russian grouping, before they move onto Nova Kruhlyakivka.

Following on from picture 5, Russian troops made more advances in Toretsk, pushing further northwest towards the edge of the town and onto the slag heap (mentioned last post), as well as more streets in the northern suburbs. I mentioned a while back that Toretsk was essentially lost for Ukraine, however at this stage they have essentially stopped counterattacking and aren’t reinforcing the town at all. Ukraine’s remaining forces are already either preparing to leave, or have left, with most of the remainder being located around the Krymske mine. Russia will take the remainder of Toretsk within the next 1.5 weeks at the current rate, which would put it slightly later than my prediction from a month ago.

Following on from picture 6, this time to the east, Russia continued advancing through the fields north of Novooleksandrivka, capturing several more and approaching the outskirts of Baranivka. Ukraine does have some defences around Baranivka, but they’re all to the west of the settlement over the river, and so won’t be of any help. I expect Russia will attack Baranivka within the next day or 2.

Back to the Kurakhove front, this time to the west. Russian troops made some advances through the fields south of Rozlyv, capturing several of them as they move towards the village. Ukraine has been setting up Rozlyv for defence for the past few months, so an assault by Russia will not be easy.