RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1049 and 1051 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Starting this update off with Kursk as usual, with more events occurring on all parts of the front. Whilst not an advance, I’ll begin with talking about the east side of the front, where Ukraine launched its large scale attack 2 days ago (as of this update). By the third day, Ukraine was all but confirmed to have been driven out of Berdin and Novosotnitskii, with ample footage of their losses in the area (only posts I didn’t link last time; photos 1, photos 2, video 1, video 2). Suriyak has marked the 2 villages as greyzone, but I disagree with him here and say its definitely under Russian control (video evidence of them walking around Berdin). Some surviving Ukrainian soldiers are still in the treelines and forest area to the south, but only a few of them and without any vehicles. Russia will be trying to drive them out with drones and artillery for now, as the force has been crippled and is no longer a threat. Ukraine could always try again in this area via the same route, but given the outcome and worsening situation on other parts of the Kursk front, they’ll likely use their troops elsewhere.

Onto the actual advances, on the north side of Kursk, beginning the previous day, Russian troops launched a few infantry attacks on the forest areas to the west of Pogrebki and Orlovka, taking many of them over and forcing Ukraine to retreat further south due to the threat of encirclement. Constant shelling and Russia intercepting many of the vehicles in this area has weakened Ukraine’s position across the whole northern side of Kursk, and this particular area is starting to buckle. Ukraine still has stronger positions to the south of here around Malaya Loknya, so this part of the front won’t collapse, however its still shrinking the area Ukraine has to work with.

On the opposite side of Kursk, to the south of Sudzha, Russian assault groups continued making progress in Makhnovka, capturing the remainder of the village/suburb. Already some clashes are taking place in neighbouring Zamoste and Dmitruikov, as Ukraine has begun to bring in more troops and launched several counterattacks to stop the situation deteriorating further.

On the Siversk front, some Russian infantry made a small advance in the treelines south of Verkhnokamyanske. The area remains incredibly static with infrequent small attacks and counterattacks by both sides.

In Toretsk, following on from the previous day, Russian forces continued to clear the residential areas on the north and northwestern sides of the town, capturing more streets, as well as the small slag heap. I mentioned last time that Ukraine had stopped reinforcing the town and was preparing to leave, and we now have some footage of some of the evacuation vehicles being struck as they leave/after they left Toretsk (video 1, video 2). As is standard for both sides, these evacuations are done by individual vehicles at different times of the day, and whilst some get hit, others do make it out.

The remaining Ukrainian garrison is mostly located around the Krymske mine, with some smaller groups of infantry scattered around the rest of the residential areas, most likely waiting to be evacuated.

On the Kurakhove front, starting with the north side, the first Russian assault group pushed into the village of Slovyanka, taking over the eastern houses. Some smaller clashes are occurring in the centre of the village as that assault group seeks to drive the Ukrainian garrison out.

To the south, on the west side of Kurakhove, Russian troops made a small advancew across the road and captured the water treatment plant between Kurakhove and Dachne. This area was abandoned by Ukraine when they retreated from the industrial area, so it was just a matter of Russia clearing it and taking over the buildings. No assault attempt has been made on Dachne yet, as it looks like the Russian units that took over Kurakhove are resting, reorganising and bringing up their supplies before the move on.

Following on from picture 1, Russia continued to press in on the settlement chain along the Malaya Loknya River, capturing more fields and forest areas, with one Russian group even reaching Staraya Sorochina (slightly above the r). Suriyak also made a map correction here showing Ukraine in control of Sorochina and Orlovka, which likely happened a while back (at least a month) but wasn’t confirmed until recently. Its still an advance (shown in pink) given they had lost control of those settlements, it just looks odd due to it only being reported when Russia also made some large gains in the same area.

The Russian advances here and in picture 1 put Ukraine in a very tough position on this northern part of the front, as they are close to being effectively encircled (theres a river to the east of the blue dots), and only have 1 thin road right next to Russian positions to get supplies via and retreat out of. The only other option is to try cross the Malaya Loknya River, and whilst it is relatively small, doing so in the middle of winter and trying to swim/wade across with supplies or wounded is just not viable.

Heavy clashes are currently ongoing on the far northern edge, as Ukraine is trying to hold its ground in the warehouses in Pogrebki despite the encroaching encirclement. I do not believe Ukraine will be able to stabilise here, and will be forced back down to their positions around Malaya Loknya. The main question will be how many troops they are able to get out.

There was also some smaller advances to the east of here (not marked by Suriyak, but shown on his livemap), with Russia taking over some treelines and reaching the far northern outskirts of Kositsa. Compared to the west of here, this area has far fewer troops, and the fighting is much more infrequent.

On the Oskil River front, following the capture of Ivanivka 2 days prior, Russian forces have begun to push out west (predicted last post), capturing multiple fields, treelines and even 2 trench networks. Russia is taking advantage of Ukraine’s poor defence of this area to try expand their bridgehead as much as possible before Ukraine can respond. Their bridgehead is still a bit tenuous due to how exposed the 3 crossings are, so they can’t bring over many vehicles. They’ll likely continue to spread out, moving south towards Bilohorivka, and west towards Kolodyazi (left blue blue dot).

How this area develops will depend on Ukraine’s ability to defend those 2 settlements, and whether Russia can bring a large enough force across the river to begin pushing out in all directions.

Far to the northwest of Ocheretyne front (pretty much a new front already), Russia continued to press out from Vozdvyzhenka, capturing several more fields and a trench network to the west of the village. There was also a Russian assault group of 5 vehicles (2 tanks, and 3 APCs or IFVs) that pushed north up the road to the highway interchange. Whilst Ukrainian sources showed 1 of the APCs/IFVs was destroyed, the other 4 vehicles were seen slightly to the east of the interchange, where they reportedly dropped off infantry next to one of the trench networks there. Ukrainian sources claimed the remaining vehicles were all destroyed on the way back to Vozdvyzhenka, but given the lack of evidence (compared to the photos of the 1 destroyed vehicle) it likely they retreated safely.

Its unknown whether the dropped off troops secured the trench network, so Suriyak has left that area as Ukrainian controlled for now. Once more information/evidence is released, we should be able to confirm whether Russia was successful, and thus controls the highway interchange.

On the Pokrovsk front, Russia made some small advances to the north of Solone, as well as within Pishchane. The latter now has Russia controlling about 75% of the village, with Ukraine limited to a single street and some warehouses on the northeastern side.

On the western side of the Selydove/Kurakhove front, Russian forces moved out of Ukrainka, capturing several fields and treelines as they reached the eastern edge of Yasenove (above the r). Some clashes are taking place as Russia seeks to establish a foothold in the village.

To the south, following on from picture 4, Russia made some more progress in Slovyanka, taking over more of the centre of the village, as well as the fields to the south. Ukraine only holds a few buildings on the west side at this point, and will be forced out within the next day or 2.

Following on from picture 5, Russia launched a new attack on the northern side of Kursk, this time to the west of Malaya Loknya (separate to pictures 1 and 5, but part of same overall effort). This is the ‘repelled’ assault mentioned in this video that was not repelled. The attack resulted in Russia taking over the remainder of Kruglenkoe (just below the y), as well as the forest of Aleksandriya (below the r), several fields and treelines, and a single trench network (bottom right corner of advance below the i).

This advance has further worsened the situation for Ukraine I talked about in picture 5, with Viktorovka and Nikolskii now also under threat. Depending on how the next 2 to 3 days goes, Russia could simultaneously capture the 6 settlements on the west side of the Malaya Loknya River, and force Ukraine to give up that whole area west. That would still leave Russia the issue of tackling Malaya Loknya, but they would be in a much better position to assault it from multiple sides if they control all 6 villages. Ukraine has been bringing in more equipment and vehicle to try help stabilise the situation, but this has naturally led to an increase in drone strikes by Russia (video 1, video 2, video 3).

North of Kupyansk, in Dvorchna, Russian forces have made more progress in the town over the past week, capturing more of the centre of the southern side, as well as the fields/marsh area to the east. They also crossed the Nyzhnya Dvorichna River and established a foothold on the northern side of the town, and are currently working on expanding their control.

Some Russian sources have made much bolder claims for Dvorichna, saying Russia now controls all of the south and most of the north side (i.e. a lot more than Suriyak shows), whilst other Russian sources are equally as cautious as Suriyak and show similar levels of control. The main issue here is that both sides are being very tight lipped about events in Dvorichna, and neither is releasing much footage or evidence to establish who controls what. As usual this will eventually be cleared up, but for the meantime I’d recommend being sceptical of any claims made by either side.

On the Oskil River front, a few Russian infantry made a small advance west of Makiivka. Not much to say about this advance as the area hasn’t seen much activity in months.

South of Chasiv Yar, Russia once again crossed the canal and recaptured the Pivdenno-Skhidnyi Mine (lost to Ukraine on Day 990, in November). They’ve also taken up positions in the adjacent forest and some of the trenches/dugouts there. Both sides have been attacking and counterattacking in this area for months, and the back and forth is unlikely to end anytime soon.

Following on from picture 3, Russia captured most of the remainder of northwestern Toretsk, with only a handful of warehouses left slightly west of this advance (between the curve). Its only a matter of time until they capture those, however clearing the forest on the west side of Toretsk will likely be a bit more difficult. Most of the Ukrainian forces who successfully retreated from this area are now in the mine complex northwest of Toretsk (slightly off map north, up that road), which has been a forward staging point for Ukraine for most of the battle for the town. Russia is unlikely to make an attempt on that mine until the rest of Toretsk is captured however.

Following on from picture 8, Russia captured the last few houses in Solone, confirming full control of the village. These had been in the greyzone for a few days now, and it was mostly a case of waiting for confirmation Russia had actually cleared them. From here Russia will continuing moving west in order to position themselves north of Uspenivka (slightly downhill).

Following on from Picture 9, Russia captured most of the remainder of Slovyanka, with the last few buildings being cleared today. They’ve also started to move through the area north of the village, capturing many fields and treelines as they head west.

We’re now reaching the point that I mentioned back in mid-December, with Russia clearing the last of the settlements before the big gap in Ukraine’s defences between the Vovcha River and the settlement chain to the north. Like with this advance, Russia will be able to take large areas of fields quite quickly due to there just not being anywhere for Ukraine to hold from, until they reach the Solena River about 28.5km west. They’ll still need to be careful not to overextend, but Russia should be able to speed up reaching Dnipro Oblast from this point.