RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1052 to 1054 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Beginning another post with Kursk, following closely after an advance discussed last time, Russian infantry continued to clear the forest area around Kositsa (blue dot below a), and have crossed to the next forest segment south. There are also some clashes in northern Kositsa (slightly east of this advance), as Russia tries to establish a foothold in the village.

On the Kupyansk front, Ukraine made a slight advance to the east of Hlushkivka, recapturing a treeline and the remaining half of a field they lost to Russia a few months ago. Ukraine is unlikely to push much further away from their defences in Hlushkivka.

On the Oskil River front, Russia expanded their bridgehead around Ivanivka, this time pushing out to the north and northwest. This advance provides them with another crossing over the Zherebets River (now 4 total in this area), which should make reinforcing their troops a bit easier. They’ll likely head north to Novolyubivka to kick off an assault on the village (front line here hasn’t changed in months), and/or will push up the road northwest of this advance to clear out the little forest areas near the Luhansk/Donetsk Oblast border.

In Scherbynivka, Russia made slightly more progress in the centre of the town, advancing up the road next to the river, occupying the houses just south of the bridge into Novospaske. Despite not controlling that bridge, a small group of infantry also crossed over the river into Novospaske and occupied a few houses on the eastern side. This is likely to set up positions for Russian troops from Leonidivka (further south) to be dropped off at to help capture the settlement.

On the Pokrovsk front, Russia made another small advance north of Solone, capturing the remainder of the field there, as well as crossing a small stream and taking up positions around the chalk quarry (?).

Following on from picture 1, Russian assault groups were confirmed to have made progress in and around Kositsa, capturing 2/3 of the village and the adjacent forest area. Ukraine now only controls a handful of houses on the southern side, and will likely move back into the next set of small forest areas to continue their defence.

On the Chasiv Yar front, further to the north, Russian troops entered Orikhovo-Vasylivka, taking over the houses on the southern side of the village. Russia had previously entered Orikhovo-Vasylivka back in early 2023, during the battle for Bakhmut, but were unable to push further. They were driven slightly back during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in mid-2023, but held their ground and have sat outside Orikhovo-Vasylivka ever since.

Thus this is the first Russian advance attempt in this area in over 1.5 years, likely taking advantage of the focus on Chasiv Yar to push a weaker part of the Ukrainian line. I don’t expect there to be any larger advance here, other than Russia trying to capture Orikhovo-Vasylivka and the adjacent fields/forest areas.

Following on from picture 5, starting with the north side, Russia captured the chalk quarry and took up positions in the treeline to the west of it. There is a Ukrainian trench network about 400m west of here, which covers the southern side of Udachne. Russia may choose to just ignore this however, and use the treeline next to the quarry to head straight north to the railway line (not defence between the quarry and railway).

Moving east, Russia made a little more progress in Zelene, now controlling over half the village. As I mentioned last time, its mostly just a matter of Russia clearing out the last few houses amongst the many drones launched from Pokrovsk, rather than actual on the ground fighting.

To the southwest, after a few week pause, Russia began to push out from Novojelyzavetivka (below the i), advancing west up the road and occupying the 5 houses that sit between Novojelyzavetivka and Nadiivka. The assault on the latter should begin within the next day or so.

Heading southwest, after a few days of clashes on the outskrits, Russian troops entered Yasenove, taking up positions in the eastern houses. They also cleared out a number of fields southeast of the village via the treelines. Ukraine has the benefit here of having 7 villages in close proximity to each other, meaning they can pull back to preprepared positions in the next one (in this case Novoandriivka) if they lose battle for one of the villages (in this case Yasenove).

On the Kurakhove front, to the northwest, Russia began to move towards Andriivka, with the first assault group heading west along the central road. There are many large trench networks in this area, some of them connected (was/is the Vovcha River line), which will make reaching Andriivka extremely difficult. The first target for Russia is most likely the trench network immediately west of this advance, just below that small forest area next to the road.

There is also a long trench network north of this advance, however crossing the open field to reach it from this area is simply too risky. Russia will probably use a separate assault group coming from the northeast to attack this area.

To the south, over the past few days Russia has taken over the village of Yantarne, pressing in from both the east and the south. With the village lost, the only settlement Ukraine still has in the ‘Kurakhove pocket’ is Dachne, which will likely be assaulted soon. Russia almost certainly won’t be able to turn the pocket into an encirclement (due to Ukrainian defences in Andriivka and Ulakly), but should be able to force Ukraine out over the next few weeks as there are fewer defensive position for Ukraine to hold from. The timing will depend heavily on when the Russian units that took Kurakhove finish resting and reorganising, and begin to advance again.

On the Velyka Novosilka front, Russia continues to gradually close the ring around the town. Starting with the northern side, some Russian infantry made a small advance in the fields slightly east of the town, occupying a treeline only 700m away from the first buildings on the north side. Said treeline also continues on directly into northern Velyka Novosilka, so this infantry group will likely attempt to enter the northern buildings over the next couple of days.

Moving out west, Russia captured a few fields slightly south of the western road out of Velyka Novosilka. Whilst Russia already physically controls part of this road, widening the advance here will allow them to push north without risk of being cut off via the flanks.

Onto the main development in this area, which happened on the south side in Neskuchne. Last week I detailed how Russia was trying to cut off the town similar to what they did with Storozheve and Makarivka, the next 2 settlements to the south. We now have confirmation of what happened, with Russia attacking from the west side over the past week and driving Ukraine out of the settlement. The capture of Neskuchne also allowed Russia to take over the fields and forest area to the east of the town

This advance differs from previous ones in that Neskuchne is directly connected to Vremivka, which sits on the west side of Velyka Novosilka and has the only remaining supply route (dirt path over open fields) left for Ukraine. Thus Russian assault groups can start to move into Vremivka to finalise the operational encirclement. If Ukraine hasn’t already started evacuating, they should begin immediately, as it will be too late to try get vehicles, equipment, munitions and wounded out via that dirt path in Vremivka once the fighting begins.

In Chasiv Yar, following their second assault attempt that began last week, Russian forces successfully took over the Refractary Plant in the centre of the town. The plant makes up the majority of Chasiv Yar’s industrial area, and was also the single best defendable position for Ukraine. Months of shelling has severely damaged the plant, but most of the structure, and the underground portions remain standing.

The fight over the plant involved many infantry on both sides, and was a clusterfuck of close quarters fighting amongst the rubble and throughout the service tunnels/sub-levels. Its Important to note that the fight for the plant is not necessarily over, as Ukraine may well launch a counterattack from the nearby apartment blocks, like they did when Russia first entered the plant. The difference this time is that Russia controls all the plant, rather than half like last time, so they may be able to better defend against the Ukrainian attacks. Once the plant is fully secured, Russia will move onto assaulting the highrise buildings to the south and west, and we may see the tipping point in the battle for Chasiv Yar.

In Toretsk, Russian cleared out the remaining houses in the northern suburbs, confirming control of that area. This leaves just the Krymske mine, a few houses on the northeastern side (top of map above the m), and some warehouses on the west side (above the @) before the town is completely under Russian control. I covered what might happen after Russia captures Toretsk in a comment on the last post.

Ukraine still maintains a presence in the Krymske mine, so it’ll take a little while longer before Russia captures Toretsk, but theres virtually no chance Ukraine will be able to hold this area for long, especially given the threat of being encircled if Russia pushes north through the fields behind the slag heap.

Northwest of Vozdvyzhenka, following on from the assault group discussed last post, after 2 days of fighting Russian troops were confirmed to captured one of the livestock farms, as well as occupying positions along the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad-Kostyantynivka highway. This physically cuts the connection between the 2 cities, although the highway hadn’t been used for supply in a while due to how close Russia was. Still, this advance complicates Ukrainian troops rotations through this area, and prevents Ukraine using the road to supply Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad if the other highways are cut.

Russia will still need to expand their spearhead here to defend against Ukrainian attacks, but should be able to consolidate positions if the capture Vodyane Druhe and Yelyzavetivka (above the @).

Following on from picture 8, Russian assault groups pushed north from the chalk quarry and the treelines to the east, reaching the edge of the railway and the highway leading to Pokrovsk. They’ll likely take full control of the highway and that section of the railway within the next day, as they move to assault Kotlyne or Udachne (slightly off map west). If they capture the latter, they’ll be able to head north to take control of the coking coal mine, which is critical to Ukraine’s steel industry.

To the east, at the same time as the above, a different Russian assault group advanced north of Pishchane, taking over several treelines, a field, and entering Zvirove. Ukraine has retreated from Pishchane due to the threat of being cut off, and Russia is currently clearing the last buildings before announcing full control. Zvirove is important in that it’s the start of a chain the directly connects to Pokrovsk, via Leontovychi (the area west and south of Troyanda is part of Pokrovsk). If Russia can take control of Zvirove, they’ll be able to move troops up into the outer parts of Pokrovsk, and begin sieging the city if they do not want to wait to cut it off.

Back to the Kurakhove front, Russia made a minor advance west of the town itself, capturing a field adjacent to Dachne. Whilst no assault on the town has begun yet, it’ll likely occur in the next day or 2, with this advance helping Russia to position themselves for the first attack.

Following on from picture 10, a group of Russian infantry pushed out of Novy Komar, occupying the treelines and a farm along the Mokri Yaly River. This group is either trying to set themselves up to intercept any retreating Ukrainians (as in close the last gap on the east side of the river), or is trying to cross the Mokri Yaly to cut off the last Ukrainian supply route in the fields (about 1km west of this advance). Either way, Ukraine is running out of options if it wants to save the garrison in Velyka Novosilka.