RU POV: Russian advances from Day 1058 and 1059 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Beginning today’s update with an area we haven’t been to in a long time, the Vovchansk front. On the east side, a small group of Russian infantry, backed by drones, advanced into northern Tykhe, clearing out Ukrainian positions in the rubble and taking control of the area. This is the first time Russia has been present in Tykhe since June 2023, when they were pushed out by Ukraine.

As usual with this front, this advance is just a small spike in activity, and is unlikely to lead to any other movements in the short term. Russia and Ukraine continue to primarily just occupy their existing positions here, trading blows with drones and artillery, and only make occasional advance attempts like this one every few weeks/month or so. The area is simply too heavily destroyed to do much else, and neither side has the forces here to try for a larger push.

Onto the most active area, the Pokrovsk front. Following on from the previous update, the Russian assault groups in this area made progress in multiple directions. Starting on the west side, information regarding the previously mentioned first assault in Udachne is out, with Russia taking over the mine management complex on the east side of the town, and beginning to move through the eastern residential area.

To the east, Russian assault groups made further progress is and around Kotlyne, advancing further along the railway line, and taking over the first street on the northern side of the village. They also captured the fields to the east of Kotlyne, to the south of the railway. With this about half of Kotlyne has fallen to Russia, with the remainder almost certainly to fall within the week as Ukraine doesn’t have the forces on the ground to properly contes the settlement.

Heading east again, a separate group of Russian recon troops advanced into the fields north of Pishchane, and made a little more progress in Zvirove. Most of these fields sit empty, with Ukraine holding this area from central Zvirove, and the small dump to the north of the village.

Heading down south, Russia completed the cleanup in Yasenove after the last battles the previous day, confirming full control of the village. They’ve wasted no time in moving out, with 1 small Russia groun advancing west along one of the treelines in an attempt to reach southern Novoandriivka. The gap between Novoandriivka and Yasenove is completely open with no cover, so this southern advance is being done to get the Russian infantry as close to the first houses as possible, rather than trying to dash across the fields in vehicles (as its likely mined).

On the Kurakhove front, to the north, Russia cleared the last of the buildings in Slovyanka, as well as capturing the fields to the west and south of the village. Russia should begin trying to push deeper into this field area soon, as it lacks any defences and is poorly manned by Ukraine. This doesn’t mean there isn’t any risk, as drones are still prevalent on this front.

To the south, Russia cleared another chunk of the trenchlines and ditches south of Dachne (part of Kurakhoves defence network), occupying them and the fields. They’ve also advanced into the far southern side of the settlement, as the first assaults for Dachne begin. With how isolated Dachne is, Ukraine is unlikely to hold it, but will try stall as long as possible to buy time for them to build up the defence around Ulakly.

Heading to Velyka Novosilka front, where in the town itself, events are rapidly ramping up. When we last left off (the previous day), Russia had just begun the first assault of Vremivka. Things have developed very quickly, with the first few Russian assault groups making incredibly fast progress, knocking out the Ukrainian garrison and occupying the majority of Vremivka within 1.5 days. With this advance, Russia has now cut off the final route out of Velyka Novosilka, so the town is operationally encircled. Adjacent to this, a different Russian group pushed from Neskuchne through the fields and forest area south of Velyka Novosilka, now sitting in the treeline only metres away from the first buildings on the southern side of the town. This group will likely begin its assault of the southern side today, if they didn’t already overnight.

As I’ve mentioned before, once Ukraine got to this point, there are no easy options left for the garrison in the town. The only route out is by walking out of the town on foot to the north, and trying to swim across the Mokri Yaly River (you can see its width at 0:32 seconds here). As a reminder the weather in this area ranges from -7°C to 5°C, meaning the river will be freezing cold, if not slightly frozen (ice not strong enough to walk over). Trying to swim across it in this weather in their clothes would be very difficult even for a strong swimmer, but many of these soldiers will already be exhausted after weeks/months of fighting. For the wounded, theres no chance they could manage this without drowning or dying of hypothermia. Even if they do make it across, they then have to walk several km to reach the nearest Ukrainian positions near Novoocheretuvate or Burlatske, all in wet clothes whilst shivering. Their chances of surviving such a journey are incredibly slim.

Its important to note that the garrison of Vremivka withdrew OUT of the pocket, fleeing north and northwest towards the settlements mentioned above, rather than retreating east back into Velyka Novosilka. How many Ukrainian troops are still inside the town is unclear,, but at maximum it would be <300. We’ll have to wait and see how many there are, and what they decide to do when faced with few options (surrender, suicidal swim, or last stand).

On the northern side of the Oskil River front, Russian troops made a small advance east of Zahryzove, captured a couple of treelines and the adjacent fields. The area east of this advance will likely fall next, with just a single treeline left for Russia to clear on their slow push towards Nova Kruhlyakivka.

Further south on the same front, around Ivanivka, Russia continued to expand their bridgehead on the west side of the Zherebets River. In addition to advancing through the fields to the north, they also taken over the forest on the south side, heading towards Bilohorivka (not a settlement, an abandoned area). Crossing the small stream that runs south of Bilohorivka will allow them to reach Myrne, which has a bridge used to supply Yampolivka. It’ll also let them approach Kolodyazi from the southeast, if they choose to advance in that direction.

At the same time as all this, Russia finally cleared the last of the ruined buildings in Terny, as they begin to move onto Yampolivka. The big forest on the west side will be somewhat difficult to clear, however if Russia can they can use it as cover to circumvent most Ukrainian positions in the village.

In Chasiv Yar, the Russian assault group that entered the southern forest area 2 days ago were confirmed to have made a slight bit of progress, and are gradually clearing the Ukrainian dugouts and small trenches in that area. The main bunker complex remains, although its anyones guess how much of it is still standing after months of shelling.

As of today (Day 1060), there are also reports that Russia has begun assaulting the highrises in central Chasiv Yar overnight. Their capture would bring an end to the fight for the centre of Chasiv Yar, and the battle would rapidly speed up from there. As a bonus, this is what the refractory plant looks like now.

Following on from picture 2, Russia made more progress in and around Kotlyne, entering the mine complex on the east side and taking over half of it, as well as occupying more fields south of the railway. This small mine complex is the most suitable defensive structure in Kotlyne, and its loss would essentially spell the end of any Ukrainian defence of the village.

To the south, Russia re-entered Uspenivka for a second time, having been pushed out 2 days ago. The assault group took over the north eastern side of the village, and is currently clashing with the Ukrainian garrison in the central area.

Following on from picture 4, to the north of Velyka Novosilka, over the past few days, Russia has expanded their control around Novyi Komar, occupying the fields and treelines along the banks of the Mokri Yaly River (barely 100m from Novoocheretuvate), as well advancing south along 3 separate treelines towards the northern side of Velyka Novosilka. This advance further complicates any retreat attempt for the Ukrainian garrison in Velyka Novosilka, as now Russia occupies even more of the banks of the river, and could have ATGM crews or Snipers set up who will hit any retreating group trying to reach Novoocheretuvate.

To the southwest, Russia captured the last few buildings in Vremivka, confirming full control of the village. The bridge into Velyka Novosilka is still partially intact, so whilst it can’t be used by vehicles, some infantry could try carefully make their way across and into the town (which as of today has reportedly happened). A breakout attempt on this side would be too difficult, as trying to cross that same bridge to try run into the fields heading north would be too slow, and the Ukrainian garrison would be shot by the Russians in Vremivka, or picked off by drones.

Southern Velyka Novosilka has reportedly been mostly abandoned by the Ukrainian garrison as they concentrate in the centre of the town, with the Russian group mentioned in picture 4 moving in and quickly clearing the area. Its likely only a matter of days until the whole area is captured by Russia, so the only remaining question is what happens to the Ukrainian garrison.