UA POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1076 to 1080 of the War - Suriyakmaps

We begin in northern Kharkiv, inside Vovchansk. A squad of Russian infantry advanced in the centre of the town, capturing a few blocks…… is what I would say, if this was anywhere but Vovchansk. The town has been so heavily destroyed over 8 months of fighting and shelling, that aside from a couple of basements and some ruins, there is simply no where for soldiers to hide. Vovchansk is ruled by drones and artillery, and both sides have basically become ‘inactive’ here, really only trying to hold onto their existing positions and watch out for possible enemy attacks.

It would be more accurate to say that Russian infantry were spotted in this area of the town for the first time in months, rather than this being an advance. Its incredibly unlikely we’ll see anything come out of this movement.

On the Oskil River front, over the past week and a half, Ukraine counterattacked for a third time into Zahryzove, retaking the southern side of the village, part of the forest, and some fields to the east. Same as the previous attempts, Ukraine got bogged down once they moved deeper into the settlement and ran into the Russian garrison in the central houses and forest area. Fighting is currently ongoing, so we’ll have to wait and see if this counterattack ends up being more successful than the previous attempts.

In Chasiv Yar, Russian troops made more advances in the southern forest, capturing the remaining portion of it up to the pond, as well as reaching the first houses of the western suburbs. Clashes are ongoing as Russia attempts to push even further through said suburbs, as they try to close the ring around the Ukrainian garrison in the centre of the town (who are already trying to pull out).

On the Pokrovsk front, starting with the north side, Ukraine counterattacked in Lysivka, retaking the eastern and southern houses. To the east of that, Russia made a slight advance up the railway line, capturing another portion of it. The fighting in this area remains a back and forth, with occasional attacks and counterattacks by both sides.

To the southwest, south of Nadiivka, Russia made another advance in the tree plantation, capturing another small portion of it. Ukraine did make a mini-counterattack/raid attempt on Nadiivka itself, but it ended poorly. Slightly southeast of this, Russia captured one of the 2 northern streets of Sribne, leaving just the northwestern street before they control the village. They also captured the fields to the northwest of Sribne, which had been abandoned by Ukraine a week earlier.

On the far northern side of the Kupyansk front, whilst Russia has been working on solidifying their bridgehead around Dvorichna, another Russian grouping has been conducting reconnaissance and raid near the border around Topoli. Whilst the DRG from over the border did not hang around long, another group has crossed the Oskil river southwest of Topoli several times, establishing a mini-foothold. Whilst this is a very small group, the problem is Ukraine also has very few troops in this area, (pretty much just border guards), so locating and driving the Russian group out has been difficult.

For now, this is only a little bit of Russian scouting, however its clear given the area, and its location in relation to Dvorichna, that Russia is considering a further push into northern Kharkiv Oblast. I’ll be keeping an eye on this area for further developments.

On the Kurakhove front, Russia made further advances in and around Andriivka, capturing a farm slightly north of the town, as well as capturing the large trench network on the eastern side and moving into the eastern suburbs. Russia now has a more direct route to reinforce and supply their assault groups in Andriivka, so their progress should speed up a bit.

To the southwest, the Russian units in Dachne have made more progress in capturing the settlement, taking over the remainder of the southern side and even taking out a Ukrainian APC trying to resupply or evacuate some troops.

Following on from the previous picture, the Russian assault groups in Andriivka made further progress, moving down the northern road and taking up positions in the centre of the town. That chunk of Ukrainian held territory to the east of this advance has likely been abandoned already and captured by Russia, but Suriyak is waiting until more evidence comes out as there could be stragglers who didn’t leave in time.

Now onto the main event for this week; Ukraine’s newest offensive in Kursk. Like with the previous one on 5 January, we’ll start with the confirmed details, then go over the various claims as there is a lot of conflicting information from various sources.

On Thursday morning, under the cover of a decent level of fog, Ukraine launched an offensive towards Ulanok on the southern side of the Kursk front. They sent 3 or 4 columns of vehicles over a 2 hour period, with 1 or 2 (smaller) columns heading into the fields northwest of Cherkasskaya Konopelka to drop off troops in the treelines and next to the river, another bypassed that settlement heading for Ulanok, and the last went through Cherkasskaya Konopelka, dropped off troops, then moved onto Fanaseevka to do the same. In total, Ukraine used about 50 vehicles of all types (engineering, tanks, IFVs, APCs, and Armoured cars), and an unknown number of troops, making this a fair bit bigger than their previous attack towards Berdin. Ukraine did try to reach Ulanok, but none of the vehicles got through, with only some of the infantry being dropped off in the forest a few km west of the village.

For their part, Russia started striking these columns the second they were spotted with fibre optic and normal drones, but had some issues due to the poor weather. This did not stop them harassing the columns through their whole trip to their target and back however, destroying and disabling a number of vehicles. The Russian garrison in Charkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseevka both pulled back into the forest areas as they were heavily outnumbered by the Ukrainian forces.

By the end of the day, Ukraine was confirmed to have dropped troops off in numerous areas, including Charkasskaya Konopelka, Fanaseevka, the fields to the north, around the river, and in the forest areas towards Ulanok.

Now we get to the claims and reports of the current situation. I’ll cover all 3 days (Thursday to Saturday), so some of this will have happened after the initial attack. To start with, Ukrainian sources, as with the previous Kursk offensive attempt, have been mostly silent. Aside from some brief statements about waiting for official reports, not to listen to the enemy (Russia’s) propaganda, and some generic statements about their soldiers fighting hard, they haven’t reported much on this offensive. This obviously makes it difficult to weigh both sides’ claims when one won’t even make one, but its not unusual for Ukraine to avoid commenting on their offensive actions.

As for the Russians, they claim to have destroyed a significant proportion of the ~50 vehicles used in this offensive, and have ample proof to back that up. There were numerous drone hits on vehicles (video 1, video 2, video 3, video 4, video 5, video 6, video 7, video 8, video 9, video 10, video 11, video 12, video 13, video 14, video 15, video 16, video 17, video 18) as well as the landed infantry (video 1, video 2). There were also some hits on a few MLRS (video 1, video 2) and an AA system (video 1) the same day, all likely supporting the Ukrainian attack. In total, Russian sources claim about 28 to 30 destroyed vehicles (across all types), but I haven’t seen a full list yet so can’t comment on if this is true or not). Russian sources also state that they did not lose full control of Cherkasskaya Konopelka, but instead their garrison maintained positions on the western side of the village next to the forest area and have been pushing the Ukrainian troops back (no proof of this just yet). Additionally, a few Russian sources claim Ukraine was also planning to launch a separate attack towards Borki (south of Ulanok), over the border, but this never eventuated.

Now, whilst I don’t believe Ukraine’s choice to stay in Kursk after the first few weeks was wise (as well as doubling, then tripling down), given that they have made that decision, launching an offensive in this area is a great move. One of my big criticisms from the previous offensive attempt was that they attacked into an area that did not help them resolve the biggest issues (pressure on the northern and southern flank), instead just moving further away from their supply lines into an area they could never hold. This big attack, if successful, would push Russia further away from Sudzha and the Ukrainian supply lines, which have been under increasing harassment after Russia took the forests south of Sudzha. It has gotten so bad that logistics vehicles and other equipment are being hit before they can even cross the border into Kursk (video 1, video 2, video 3, video 4, video 5), and Russian drones are even prowling central Sudzha for targets. If this continues, the cost of trying to maintain their presence in Kursk would increase to completely unsustainable levels, so pushing Russian drone operators back was a necessary move.

Currently, Russia is trying to hunt down the Ukrainian infantry who have been dropped off in the forests, Charkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseevka before they can dig in. Its going to come down to whether Ukraine can actively resupply and reinforce their troops who made it to their targets, or if they just get picked off by Russian drones. Given the vehicle losses trying to get as far as they did, I don’t think Ukraine will be able reinforce their infantry.

Back to the Kupyansk front, this time around Dvorichna. Over the past couple of days Russian assault groups have continued moving north of the town, taking over multiple fields and treelines, before capturing the village of Fyholivka. Ukraine’s garrison was far too small to contest the settlement, and retreating almost immediately after fighting began. Still no confirmation of Russia bringing vehicles across the Oskil River into Dvorichna to use in attacks, but regardless of that Russian assault groups are making good progress on foot.

In Toretsk, after another few days of clashes in and around the Krymske mine, Russian forces have had some more success, taking over most of the remaining buildings, as well as the last of the residential buildings on the northern side of Toretsk. Whilst technically there is a couple of tiny areas consisting of a few houses and warehouses to capture, the battle for Toretsk is functionally over. Ukraine tried to hold the Krymske mine for as long as possible, reinforcing it continually, but with constant Russian shelling and an unfavourable resupply/reinforcement route, it was only a matter of time until they were driven or wiped out. You can see a drone view of the town here.

Back over to the Pokrovsk front, this time in slightly different areas. Starting with the northern side, Ukraine counterattacked towards Pishchane, retaking some of the (former) railway line, as well as reaching the northeastern side of the village. They assaulted the mine area, where fighting is ongoing, but given the lack of information and footage its hard to tell who controls what.

To the southwest, Russia made a minor advance inside Uspenivka, taking over a few more houses on the southern side of the village.

Following on from picture 6, Russia captured the remainder of Dachne, confirming full control of the settlement. With this, the only Ukrainian controlled settlement inside the Kurakhove pocket is Ulakly, which is in an increasingly worsening position as Russia advances through Andriivka.

Following on from picture 9, Russian troops started to move out of Dvorichna to the northwest, taking over the adjacent forest areas and part of the road. Whilst there aren’t any treelines for their infantry to advance up of along said road, they can still move towards Kutkivka and Dovhenke via the forest area to the west.

On the Oskil River front, Russia made a small advance into Yampolivka, capturing a few houses on the north side of the village. There was also an advance attempt through the forest east of the settlement, however that was driven back by Ukraine. Yampolivka has been very heavily destroyed, so theres minimal cover here for Russia to use, aside from the forest areas nearby.

Back over to Toretsk, this time northeast of the town, where Russian troops were confirmed to have retaken Druzhba. If you had forgotten, Russia took Druzhba back in September, but a small Ukrainian counterattack in early November (Day 985) led to Russia losing control of the northern and western streets. Now this counterattack fizzled out within a day or 2, and by all accounts Russia retook it then, but there hasn’t actually been any video or photo evidence of that until now.

Druzhba itself has little value aside from opening the way for further assaults to the north and northwest, so neither Russia nor Ukraine were particularly focused on fighting over it since it was first taken by Russia.

On the far eastern side of the Pokrovsk front, over the past few days Russia began to advance up the small stream next to the Kazenyi Torets River, heading to Yelyzavetivka. At the same time, Ukraine was confirmed to still be in control of the village (had a small chunk of greyzone), meaning the Russian assault from a month ago was either defeated, or pulled back after clashing with the 2 Ukrainian tanks. Given their current position, Russian assault groups will enter Yelyzavetivka within the next day or 2, attacking the western side.

Following on from picture 7, Russian assault groups in Andriivka made even more progress, capturing the previously mentioned portion of the eastern side of the town, as well as moving deeper into the central area. At this point about half of the settlement is under Russian control, with fighting now beginning to move into the western side.

As you can see from the map, with Andriivka falling to Russia, Ukraine now only has a 3.3km gap to evacuate its forces in the Kurakhove pocket, with most of that gap being made up of Kostyantynopil. Once fighting begins in the town, it will be too late to evacuate properly and Ukraine will lose a number of troops and vehicles unnecessarily as they try to pull back west to Bahatyr. Ukraine’s saving grace is that they have so far held southern Kostyantynopil, however if Russia captures Andriivka they will have to defend from both sides and will struggle to hold the gap open.