Context
Kicking off in Kursk, we follow on a few days after the beginning of a new Ukrainian offensive to the south (discussed last time). Getting it out the way, we’ve had a lot more footage released from Kursk regarding the offensive attempt (on top of the enormous amount we already had), including some of the first Ukrainian filmed footage, and many more Russian drone strikes (video 1, video 2, video 3, video 4, video 5, video 6, video 7, video 8, video 9, video 10, video 11, video 12). There has been more footage released from Kursk in the past week than in the previous 2 months, owing to a significantly increased Russian Fibre-optic drone supply, and a large increase in Ukrainian activity.
As for the actual territorial changes, we have more clarification on the events that followed after the beginning of the offensive. The Russian claim of controlling the western side of Cherkasskaya Konopelka that I mentioned last time was confirmed, with some clashes taking place as the Russian infantry in the forests try to push out the Ukrainian assault groups that were dropped off in the village. To the southeast, some of the Ukrainian infantry that were dropped off in Fanaseevka have tried making their way through the forests towards Ulanok. They are being shelled and hit by Russian drones, and given the numbers and unfavourable terrain its highly unlikely they’ll be able to get to the settlement, much less secure a foothold.
Russian efforts are now focused on squeezing out Ukrainian forces from the land they took during this offensive, so we’ll have to keep an eye on this area over the next few weeks as the battle continues. Ukraine has tried to reinforce/resupply them with a few armoured cars, but given how badly the large columns did these smaller groups aren’t having much luck either. As it stands, its unlikely Ukraine can hold onto Fanaseevka or Cherkasskaya Konopelka in the medium term.