Context
Following on from picture 6, starting in Andriivka, Russian assault groups cleared the last few houses in the town, as well as the trench network on the north side, confirming full control of the settlement. This likely happened 2 days prior (As some Russian sources stated), however Suriyak waited for concrete confirmation as usual. With this, Russia can now look to push west along the Vovcha River and take over the remains of Ukraine’s defence line (As the head for Dnipro Oblast), as well as squeezing Ukrainian troops out of the mostly unprotected fields to the north. Its highly unlikely Russia will try cross the Vovcha River to attack Kostyantynopil from the north, particularly given the progress below.
Moving southeast, Russian assault groups continue to clear Ulakly, where Ukrainian resistance has all but fallen apart. Its now just individual squads and groups desperately trying to retreat towards Kostyantynopil, and being picked off by Russian drones as they run from house to house. Unfortunately they stand little chance of surviving if they do not surrender, and Russian sources have been released an enormous amount of drone footage of them being picked off.
We then move west, where Russian assault groups breached Ukraine’s defences in Kostyantynopil, and have taken over most of the southern side of the town, including the buildings next to only road out of the area on the west side. Ukraine is trying to drive these Russian units out, but heavy Russian drone support has thwarted their attempts so far. Ukraine has also been bringing in a decent amount of equipment as it tries to evacuate all the troops who had been in the Kurakhove pocket, which has naturally led to a spike in losses (video 1, video 2, video 3, video 4). Now, whilst Russia is right next to the only route out of Kostyantynopil, I would not consider this an encirclement just yet as Russia’s positions are quite fragile. They are mostly hiding in the houses and basements, waiting for the chance to start moving out. If Russia can capture the rest of the southern side, as well as reinforce their existing troops, then they will be able to set up ATGM teams overlooking the road and complete the encirclement.