Russian Forces
Advance: 7.18 km²
Advance = 7.18km2
Following on from picture 1, Russian troops cleared the last of the fields south of Nikolaevo-Darino, securing the border line. They’ve also increased their attacks into Sumy Oblast, and are now making assault attempts towards both Novenke and Basivka as u/UndeniablyReasonable predicted a week ago. Their goal will be to take over Basivka so they can establish fire control over the main supply road into Kursk, which would cripple Ukrainian logistics (although not entirely stop), and would eventually force a complete retreat from this front. This will not be nearly as easy as it sounds, as Russia will have to contend with some incredibly vulnerable supply/reinforcement routes (over mostly open fields), and defend from counterattacks from 3 different sides. This is why I dismissed the idea of Russia going for this last week, as it will be extremely difficult to pull off. With this attack, no progress has been confirmed yet, and we’re still waiting for information about the outcome.
On a related note, Russia’s oppressive drone strike campaign on Ukrainian logistics vehicles and equipment in Kursk and Sumy continues (video 1, video 2, video 3, video 4, video 5, video 6, video 7, video 8, video 9, video 10, video 11, video 12, video 13, video 14, video 15, video 16, video 17, video 18, video 19, video 20) with losses mounting. With Ukraine’s offensive attempt falling flat, they’re running out of options as drones are even prowling the streets of Sudzha. Ukraine can absorb the losses in the short term as they simply a ton of units and equipment in Kursk, but given the likely stoppage of all U.S. aid they cannot afford to lose this much equipment in the medium to long term.
Additionally, there are reports that the first Russian assault group has reached Lebedevka, with initial clashes taking place. No confirmation on this one yet but a number of sources (Russian and Ukrainian) have made similar reports.