RU POV: Russian advances from Day 1139 and 1140 of the War - Suriyakmaps

We’re beginning this update on the southern side of the Kursk front (or whats left of it). Over the past week Russian assault groups were able to drive Ukraine out of their positions in the old distillery, capturing it and the surrounding houses. Surviving Ukrainian troops have withdrawn into th forests between Guevo and Gornal, and are currently being hit by Russian drones and artillery. Whilst there are still some buildings on the outer edge of the village left to clear, the battle for Guevo is effectively over as Ukraine has lost its last strong defence point.

Heading over to the Oskil River front, starting on the north side, Russian assault groups continued to press the attack in Nove and Katerynivka. In the previous update, I mentioned that Russia had split its attention between both settlements and was assaulting them simultaneously. 2 days later and Russia has made quick progress, with their assault groups confirmed to have captured the village of Katerynivka, as well as the fields and small forest areas east and west of it. Judging by the footage of the assault and subsequent capture, there was minimal (but still some) fighting on the ground, with Russia simply bombing/droning out most of the garrison, before moving in a few small groups of infantry. This now secures the Russian right flank, so they will likely send these assault groups to join those already fighting in Nove.

This front is proving to be quite concerning for Ukraine, with Russia making good progress with minimal losses. Its important to clarify that Russia hasn’t shifted to a proper offensive here, and is still utilising the same units in similar attacks as they have been since the start of the year. Instead the issue looks to be poor/uncoordinated Ukrainian forces being picked off, who just do not have the appropriate numbers to hold this area of the front (hence many trench networks being undefended). If no reinforcements are sent, Russia will likely continue making this sort of progress until they hit more solid/better defended Ukrainian lines.

To the southeast, an even more concerning situation is unfolding for Ukraine. Following their capture of Yampolivka a few weeks ago, Russian forces secured the area and began to make preparations for a push south. Starting 3 days ago, they launched an attack from the north and northwest, heading deep into Torske and almost reaching the centre of the town, as well as taking over the majority of fields and treelines northwest. Zarichne and Torske are separated by the Zherebets River, with all of the latter’s supplies coming via the former. With Russian troops now moving into Toretsk from the north, they may finally be able to break the stalemate in this area and open the way for an attack on Lyman. The loss of Torske and Zarichne would also have serious strategic effects for several other areas (expanded on in comment below).

Heading down south again, Russian forces have continued their slow push north of Verkhnokamyanske (off map), taking several more positions on the ‘white hill’. This hill is a key point on the Siversk front, as it not only overlooks Verkhnokamyanske but Siversk itself. If Russia is able to seize the hill and all the dugouts and trench networks on it, they will be able to push into Verkhnokamyanske, which would open the way for a direct assault on Siversk.

In Toretsk, Russia has made further progress in securing the town, clearing out and capturing several more streets on the western side. Clashes are still ongoing in other areas, however I believe it is safe to say the tide has shifted and Ukraine’s infiltrations have run out of steam. This doesn’t mean they can’t push back in again, but it will be significantly more difficult as Russia is far more prepared and has been more oppressive in hitting transports and reinforcements.

All the way to the northeast, a small Russian group crossed the canal west of Ozarianivka, capturing a small fortification. Like some of these other crossings, Russia is not making any major movements yet, but is slowly clearing these positions out ahead of time.

Moving over to the Pokrovsk front, Russian forces made slightly more progress in Lysivka, taking over the centre of the village. Heavy clashes continue here, and just like with previous attacks and counterattacks its difficult to tell who has the upper hand and whether this is sustainable. For now, Russia is trying to secure houses itself, but will have to deal with the fortifications that sit slightly north of Lysivka at some point.

Following on from picture 1, starting on the southeast side, Russian forces finished clearing the last parts of Guevo, as well as some of the adjacent forest areas, confirming full control of the settlement. This just leaves 2 villages in Kursk under Ukrainian control; Oleshnya and Gornal. Both are currently under heavy shelling and bombing by drones and artillery, with Russia trying to soften up the dense Ukrainian fortifications there before attempting assaults. Ukraine for their part is still trying to stall Russia and does not look to be leaving these areas anytime soon. With Gornal, one of the main Ukrainian defence points is the Nikolskiy Belogorskiy Monastery, which Russia is reportedly moving towards now.

Northwest, Russian troops in Basiivka made a minor advance south of the settlement, taking over some fields and more of the treelines on either side of the Loknya River. There was also an attempt to enter Loknya with a few soldiers on quadbikes, however it failed with several of them being captured.

Heading southeast, over the border in Belgorod, after several weeks of attacks Ukraine’s incursion looks to have peaked. Whilst they have not used nearly as many forces as the initial days, Ukraine continued to push groups of infantry and individual vehicles into the area, but were unable to make any additional progress. With Russia continuing to strike their forces along the border and in Sumy (video 1, video 2, video 3, video 4, video 5), including even more strikes by UCAVs (video 1, video 2), they have simply not been able to keep committing troops. Russian infantry were shown to be back in control of Demidovka, and the garrison in Popovka has driven Ukraine back, although has not recaptured the forest areas yet.

As I said back when Ukraine launched this attack on Day 1122, it was an incredibly rushed, poorly planned incursion that was only aimed at pinning Russian forces in the area. There was no chance for Ukraine to repeat its success in Kursk here as they had far too little preparation time, Russian units were already in the area, and their forces were still exhausted having just retreated from Kursk. Ukraine will likely hold onto portions of Belgorod for a while longer, as its clear Russia is not rushing to recapture them, but they will eventually be driven out.

Following on from picture 2, Russian troops have made slightly more progress around Nove, capturing a field fields and treelines north and south of the town. Fighting is still ongoing on the east side, but these other Russian groups are likely trying to move into the north and southern sides of the town to stretch the Ukrainian garrison.

To the east, a separate Russian group has been clearing the fields and treelines north of Novolyubivka, as they head north to try capture some of the last parts of Luhansk Oblast.

Going back to the Siversk front, this time slightly north of the area discussed in picture 3. Over the past week, at the same time as the operation to capture the ‘white hill’, a different set of Russian assault groups has been clearing the numerous dugouts and trenches west of Bilohorivka, seizing a sizeable area. Whilst there are still a decent amount left to clear, the fighting is being pushed away from Bilohorivka and we may see it finally shift to Hryhorivka as Russia moves west.

Following on from picture 4, Russian forces drove Ukraine out from the streets next to the stadium, and are starting to clear the northern side of Toretsk. With front lines now clearer/more established, Russia has been able to more effectively coordinate their attacks and clear out the remaining buildings of any stragglers. Unless Ukraine plans a larger counterattack, it is only a matter of time until their forces are pushed out of the town entirely.

At the same time as this, Russia has also begun sending out small recon grouping northwest of Toretsk, probing Ukrainian positions and responses. This is likely in preparation for further attacks northwest once Toretsk is under Russian control.