RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1193 to 1196 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Kicking off this update in Sumy, following the redeployment of a few Ukrainian units to the Kostyantynivka front (82nd Air Assault and 43rd Artillery Brigades), Russian activity in the border area increased beginning last week. Now Russian forces have rapidly stepped up their attacks (primarily small infantry groups with drone and FAB support) and are making large gains across a wide area.

Starting on the west side, following their border crossing and capture of Kostyantynivka (not the city) a few days prior, Russian assault groups quickly pushed onto Kindrativka and have already established a firm foothold on the north side. Ukrainian troops here (and this wider part of Sumy) have been battered for weeks by artillery, FABs and drones, and are struggling to mount a coordinated defence. The garrison in Kindrativka will almost certainly be unable to withstand the attacks and will need to retreat to avoid being overrun and killed.

To the east, a similar situation unfolded in Oleksiivka, although this particular Ukrainian garrison faired even worse than the one in Kindrativka. After days of bombardment Russian assault groups moved from Volodymyrivka and over the border in Kursk down into Oleksiivka. In just 2 days these groups quickly captured a cleared the entire village and many of the surrounding fields and treelines. From the few vague reports we have, it does not seem like the garrison made it out in time. This particular group is securing their position in Oleksiivka but already have their sights set on Novomykolaivka, which is simply untenable for Ukraine as all supply and reinforcement routes are under Russian fire control once Oleksiivka fell. To my understanding the small garrison is trying to flee to neighbouring Varachyne (southeast).

Heading east again, Russian forces from Bilovody and Loknya have cleared out a number of fields and treelines around the villages and next to the Kursk border (near Oleshnya), putting them within striking distance of Yablunivka. A couple of Russian sources mention (on Day 1193) that they had already entered that village, although this was unconfirmed as of Suriyak making the update. They have certainly beenrid working on the village with drones at the very least.

Clashes continue within the town of Yunakivka, however there has been no concrete information released by either side, only a variety of reports, most of which point to Russian assault groups being somewhat successful.

I’ll also note that Ukraine has announced the mandatory evacuation of 11 more settlements in Sumy, several of which are now uncomfortably close to the frontline with this recent Russian advance.

Finally, there was also some small Russian movement to the south of Guevo as they have begun to probe towards Oleksandriya. No proper attack has taken place yet.

Heading over to the Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka fronts, starting on the far northeastern side, the Russian assault group that entered Oleksiivka a little while ago has made some slight progress in the town, capturing another street. Compared to other parts of this front, Russia has dedicated far fewer troops to the assault of this settlement, so it will take them quite a while to make any progress and they can easily be halted.

Moving to the far southwestern side, as mentioned yesterday, the final clashes were ongoing in Novopil, but have now wrapped up, with Russian assault groups confirmed to have captured the village and a small buffer on the west side.

Back in late January I discussed what would happen after the fall of Velyka Novosilka and where Russia might try to advance. At the time I said that Russia will push west to the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border (where they are now) but are unlikely to advance much further in that direction to avoid having to take on the large defence networks in and around Temyrivka (the far eastern end of Ukraine’s Zaporizhia Defence line).

However several months later and with many changes to the frontline, I am no longer as sure. The fact remains that Temyrivka will be very difficult to capture, but Russia has shifted their focus on this front to pushing west (starting early May), so may be considering trying to break the eastern edge of the Ukrainian defence line to pressure Ukrainian positions further south around Poltavka and Malynivka. It is obviously too early to tell as they have only recently taken Zelene Pole and Novopil, but this will certainly be an area to watch.

On the Zaporizhia front, over the past week Ukraine counterattacked from Kamyanske and have managed to make their way along one of the gullies moving southeast. Ukraine counterattack here every other month, with this attempt likely relating to the Russian movements to the east of it (i.e. trying to pressure Russian troops in the warehouse area).

Heading back to Sumy, this time around Tetkino. Ukraine has continued to launch attacks in this area despite minimal progress and heavy losses, with this new ‘incursion’ now approaching the one month mark (in a couple of days). Clashes continue on the western edge of Tetkino with Ukraine unable to make any more progress into the town.

To the east, Ukraine has managed to move infantry into the sewage treatment area just on the opposite side of the border east of Tetkino. Aside from the couple of treelines here there are no positions to hold here, hence why Russian troops have not been holding this area. Ukraine can make some advances from here to the north to try cut Tetkino off, but it will be very difficult as getting infantry or equipment into this small area will be costly (video 1, video 2, video 3, video 4, video 5).

Following on from picture 1, Russian assault groups have cleared the remainder of Kindrativka, confirming full control of the village. They also finished clearing that last small section of greyzone north of the reservoir. With Kindrativka under control Russia now has a path to the town of Khotin (south), a key area for this frontline.

In Vovchansk, Russian infantry groups continue to clear the ruins of the town, moving through the highrise area and several central blocks. Ukraine is reportedly withdrawing the last remnants of its forces from their positions in the ruins on the north side of Vovchansk, although Suriyak is waiting for more confirmation before showing it as Russian controlled.

On the Oskil River front, over the past few days Russian assault groups have wasted no time in moving from recently captured Ridkodub onto Karpivka, taking over several treelines east of the town and securing a foothold on the north side of the settlement on both sides of the Nitrius River. I mentioned this several months ago, but capturing Karpivka is quite significant for the Oskil River front, as it will mean Russian drone operators will be in range of the main supply road for Ukraine and can significantly restrict their supplies for a good portion of the front.

This is also why it’s a little surprising Ukraine let Russia enter Karpivka and get set up on both sides of the river, as they know how important it is to hold the small town.

Moving down to Chasiv Yar, north of the town Russian troops captured most of the remainder of the clay quarry, following their movements in that area in early May. For now they just seem to be increasing the buffer around Chasiv Yar, but I won’t rule out them considering a push towards Maiske.

To the south, after a month of fighting the Russian assault groups that entered Stupochki have managed to hold their positions against Ukrainian counterattacks and have captured the rest of the village. They are now operating out of Kostyantynivka city, but will likely continue to try retake the village. If Russia can secure some more positions in this area, they can start considering a push in southern Chasiv Yar (slightly north of this advance) to help wrap that battle up.

Heading to the Toretsk front, northwest of the town, following on from their attacks mentioned in the previous post, Russian assault groups have made significant progress. Their troops continued pushing up along the Balmutka River as I mentioned last time, managing to reach and push deep into Dyliivka. I’m unsure of the exact state of the Ukrainian unit in this area (after one was redeployed west), however we know they have been taking a number of losses as Russia increased attacks in this area. To a degree they likely just weren’t expected the Russian assault groups to break straight into the settlement and have almost certainly been thrown off unit movements on this front. If Russia can taky Dyliivka it will be difficult for Ukraine to hold the remaining fields northeast of the village and will help wrap up the fighting in the other Dyliivka (southwest).

Adjacent to this, Russian troops around Dachne and the other Dyliivka have cleared a number of fields and treelines, as Ukrainian troops have been forced to withdraw to hold the settlements. This all but secures the northeastern side of Toretsk, allowing Russia to focus its efforts on moving out of the town.

Speaking of, on the west side of Toretsk there was a bit of back and forth between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia clearing out a small chunk of the forest are whilst Ukraine retook a small part of the railway line.

Onto the Kostyantynivka front, starting on the east side, Russian forces cleared the last buildings in Zorya, confirming full control of the settlement. Zorya is the last Ukrainian settlement Russia needed to take before they reach the large open field area south of the Bychok River. They’ll still need to regroup and reorganise after the large gains over the past few weeks, but will then move onto attack Yablunivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove and likely Katerynivka as they attempt to reach Kostyantynivka city.

To the west, afters a few days of attacks Russian forces in Malynivka have moved north and captured the village of Shevchenko Pershe, as well as a number of fields and treelines around it. They are currently aiming for Koptjeve, the next village northwest.

Following on from picture 5, starting on the northeastern side, Russian forces moved into Novomykolaivka, quickly clearing and capturing the village, as well as the surrounding area. Minimal fighting was reported, so it looks like the garrison retreated in time, however Varachnye is now under threat and the next target, so they will need to retreat much further south towards Nova Sich. Yablunivka is also reportedly under attack as of this map update, although no confirmations yet.

Southwest, Russian forces from Kindrativka and Oleksiivka quickly entered Andriivka and have taken over half the village, as well as clearing out the (mostly empty) fields and treelines to the north. Clashes are occurring in the southern part of the village but the Ukrainian garrison will not be able to hold.

Adjacent to this, a Russian assault group moved south out of Oleksiivka and has cleared several treelines and a mini-forest area. They are trying to reach and entrench themselves in Mala Korchakivka before Ukraine can organise a proper defence, which would speed up their capture of that village.

Following on from picture 4, Ukraine has made a small bit of progress within Tetkino, capturing a few more houses on the southwestern side of the town. The issue remains their inability to push much due to Russia simply droning or bombing any houses they try take up permanent positions in.

To the east, Ukraine moved on from the sewage treatment area and attacked a trench network to the west of it. They will try build up their forces here so that they can make an attempt on Tetkino from the east side, although as mentioned earlier it will be incredibly difficult as Russia is concentrating a lot of firepower on this area. There was also a minor correction to the frontline here showing Russia still in control of the area north of the sewage treatment facility.

Following on from picture 11, Russia crossed the international border in a new spot, slightly west of Kostyantynivka (the village). They were able to quickly clear and captured Novokostiantynivka as this is yet another border settlement that had been abandoned due to being too close to Russia. Their goal looks to be to attack Yastrubyne (southwest of this advance), which Russia can use as a defence point or forward base to intercept any Ukrainian counterattacks against their push south. To this end they’ll likely take nearby Stepne as well, as that too is empty and undefended (on the ground).

Moving all the way to the southeast, over in the Guevo area, both Russia and Ukraine have made some advances near the Psel River. Russian troops crossed the river near Gornal in small numbers, likely intending to probe the defences around Myropillya (south). To the east of here, despite withdrawing earlier a small number of Ukrainian infantry has tried pushing from Myropillya back over the border, trying to reach and infiltrate Guevo. There is currently no information regarding whether they were able to reach the settlement or not.

Moving over to Torske, following the loss of the fish farm a few weeks ago Russian assault groups were forced to retreat from their positions in the town due to a lack of supplies. Ukraine has therefore been able to re-establish control over Torske, with Russia currently trying to bomb and attack the fish farm once again so they can make another attempt on Torske.

This also makes it quite awkward as the Russian MoD had claimed they had captured Torske when the Russian push first occurred.

Following on from picture 8, Russia made a small advance in the southern suburbs of Chasiv Yar, captured a couple of streets.

To the south, the south side of Stupochky has gone back into the greyzone after a Ukrainian counterattack, with clashes continuing.

Following on from picture 10, Russian troops made a small advance south of Yablunivka, taking a few more treelines. The assault on the town itself continues with Russia still entrenched on the west side.

To the southeast, following their capture of Zorya, a Russia assault group moved out into the warehouses east of the town and cleared them. These had been abandoned by Ukraine earlier, but they still needed to check for stragglers. From reports this Russian grouping is taking a short break whilst they move supplies, drone teams and their forward base closer to the front (as its shifted a lot in the past 2 weeks), but will soon be on the attack again heading north.

Over to the southwest, Russia continues to clear the fortifications between Malynivka and Myrolyubivka, taking another trench line.

On the Pokrovsk front, Russia made a minor gain west of Kotlyarivka over the past couple of days. The large number of Ukrainian drone teams and frequent counterattacks has prevented them from being able to move much further west on this front.