RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1197 to 1199 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Russian Forces Advance: 13.23 km²

Left Advance = 10.38km2, Middle Advance = 2.85km2

Same as with the previous post, we’re starting off in Sumy, where Russia continues its push to the south. Starting on the east side, Russian assault groups cleared Yablunivka, which was only defended by a small garrison. This puts them in a position to attack Varachyne (along with the troops in Novomykolaivka), although they’ll need to be wary of Ukrainian counterattacks if they push too far from friendly drone operators. They could also try push south to cut off some supplies to Yunakivka, where fighting is ongoing.

To the southwest, Russian infantry groups finished clearing the remainder of Andriivka, taking full control of the village, as well as capturing a number of fields and treelines in the surrounding area. This puts them quite close to the group of settlements along the Oleshnya River (see this comment), however it is also where Ukraine has been gearing up to hold, so Russia will likely need to bring in more troops and straighten the frontline somewhat if they want to make a successful attack.

Russian Forces Advance: 5.56 km²

Top Left Advance = 1.30km2, Middle Left Advance = 3.78km2, Lower Left Advance = 0.48km2

On the Oskil River front, Russian forces slightly expanded their push towards Karpivka, taking control another set of treelines west of Ridkodub.

They have also begun enveloping Zelena Dolyna, where the Ukrainian garrison has fortified its positions in the forest north of the village. Whilst it might look like they could actually encircle this settlement, the southern Russian push is quite weak and only being done by one infantry group, so they would have to expand their control in that area if they wished to completely cut off Zelena Dolyna.

Russian Forces Advance: 8.51 km²

Right Advance = 3.11km2, Upper Left Advance = 5.40km2,

On the Kostyantynivka front, starting on the northeast side, Russian assault groups have made a little bit more progress on the west side of Yablunivka, capturing a few more houses and the treelines just north of them. Heavy clashes are ongoing within the town, with Ukrainian reinforcements and Russian assault groups trading blows.

To the southwest, following their capture of Shevchenko Pershe a few days ago, Russia has started moving some small infantry groups into the area north of the village, likely aiming to straighten the frontline somewhat by reaching the quarry west of Popiv Yar. This would help protect that flank from counterattacks.

Moving south, Ukraine lanched a small counterattack from Mykolaivka, retaking one of the treelines north of Myrolyubivka. They are likely considering trying to push back into that village, but it will be difficult to make much progress due to Russia already being entrenched in the buildings and small forest area.

Russian Forces Advance: 10.85 km²

Top Right Advance = 1.55km2, Upper Middle Advance = 1.55km2, Lower Middle Advance = 3.67km2, Bottom Advance = 4.08km2

Heading over to the Pokrovsk front, starting on the northern side, over the past few days Russia has established control over one of the treelines south of Udachne, part of the ongoing positional battles in that area. Ukraine has reportedly pulled back behind the small lake and is using drone operators in Udachne to slow the Russian advance.

Southwest, there was a minor Russian advance north of the Kotlyarivka, straightening the frontline.

Moving south, after several weeks of little activity Russian recon groups have recently begun operating more aggressively around Oleksiivka, capturing a number of fields and treelines, but also probing much further west towards the Dnipro Oblast border. Whilst they have no truly captured this area yet, the concern for Ukrainian command (as Ukrainian sources state) is that they will be able to circumvent Oleksiivka and restrict supplies from getting to the town. Given clashes have already started on the east side, this would speed up the loss of the settlement and force Ukraine to retreat.

Russian Forces Advance: 3.64 km²

Advance = 3.64km2

On the Velyka Novosilka front, over the past couple of days Russian assault groups have begun moving out of Dniproenerhiya, clearing several fields and treelines to the north. Judging by the reports and movements, they are likely trying to replicate their capture of Vesele in Fedorivka, where they advance on the east side of the Mokri Yaly to put pressure on the garrison, before launching the actual assault from the south on the west side of the River. Its also possible this is being done to reach Komar, although these are not mutually exclusive.

Russian Forces Advance: 2.58 km²

Advance = 2.58km2

Context

Swinging back north, on the Kupyansk front, after two weeks of clashes Russian assault groups were able to clear and capture the entirety of Kindrashivka. As I mentioned in the post back when the fighting over this village began, Kindrashivka gives Russia a forward staging point for which they could attack Kupyansk itself.

I will note however that it will be quite difficult to do so from the current Russian position, as Ukraine constantly counterattacks from the west. If Russia does plan on attacking Kupyansk, they’ll need to widen their control of this area by taking Mala Shapkivka and Tyshchenkivka at the minimum, but also Velyka Shapkivka to be truly secure.

Russian Forces Advance: 1.71 km²

Advance = 1.71km2

To the east of Torske, for the first time in over a year (by either side) there has been a change in the frontline in the Serebryansky forest. Russian forces started operations on the north side of the forest, taking up positions across one ‘block’. Whilst this is tied to the Russian attacks around Torske, its unlikely they will be able to make enough progress in the forest to change the strategic situation on this front.

The primary reason why neither side has been able to break the stalemate in Serebryansky forest is because it is absolutely littered with dugouts and trenches, which have been built up over several years. With drone and vehicle usage limited by the dense tree cover, it is incredibly tough for any advance to take place as it requires high numbers of infantry to clear out each individual trench/dugout one by one, with no chance of overrunning them or cutting their supplies off. Russia has been working on Ukrainian troops and equipment in this area, but unless they can gather a sizeable force the frontline won’t shift much.

Russian Forces Advance: 3.10 km²

Top Right Advance = 1.79km2, Upper Right Advance = 0.20km2, Upper Middle Advance = 0.16km2, Upper Left Advance = 0.95km2

Heading over to the Toretsk front, North of the town Russia has continued making smaller advances in several areas. Starting on the northeast side, they have cleared a few of the treelines east of Dyliivka (the top one), as they continue their assault of the village.

So the south and southwest Russian forces made similar movements in the other Dyliivka, making smaller gains around the village as they clear treelines to allow for further troops to be brought in.

To the west, Russian recon groups have been operating along the ponds north of Toretsk, with one group making it all the way over to the quarry southeast of Nelipivka. Their control of this area is quite fragile, with minimal cover and a lot of open fields, so Russia is unlikely to be able to make any larger movements with assaults group here.

Russian Forces Advance: 10.09 km²

Top Middle Advance = 2.94km2 Upper Left Advance = 0.11km2, Upper Right Advance = 0.11km2, Middle Right Advance = 2.53km2, Bottom Left Advance = 4.40km2

Following on from picture 3, Russian assault groups made further progress on both sides of the river within Yablunivka, with the battle now approaching the centre of the town. They have also continued clearing the fields to the south of it and may be able to open up the assault from the south side if they continue making progress there.

To the west, there was a tiny advance north of Shevchenko Pershe, with a Russian group moving up the treeline towards the quarry I mentioned in picture 3.

Further south, a different set of Russian assault groups have cleared the warehouses south of Malynivka and a number of small trench networks. There is another line of trench networks still to clear, but this small pocket is gradually disappearing as the front straightens out towards Novoekonomichne.

Russian Forces Advance: 1.58 km²

Advance = 1.58km2

Following on from picture 4, after several days of heavy clashes Russian assault groups have taken control of most Novoserhiivka, taking control of approximately 2/3 of the village. From reports the surviving parts of the Ukrainian garrison have pulled back to the westernmost houses and are mostly just harassing the Russians with drones. They are unlikely to be able to hold the village, but I don’t expect Russia to make much progress after they capture it as the density of drones is too high for quick advances.

Russian Forces Advance: 5.42 km²

Left Advance = 2.53km2, Middle Left Advance = 2.89km2

Following on from picture 5, Russian assault groups entered Fedorivka after days of bombardment, quickly taking control over most of the village. There are only a few houses left to clear, but that is mostly just waiting for confirmations as the Ukrainian garrison has all but been defeated (most before the Russians even set foot in the settlement).

To the east, the Russian infantry operating north of Dniproenerhiya have captured a couple more fields and treelines, with it now being clear they are heading for Komar.

Russian Forces Advance: 7.35 km²

Middle Left Advance = 4.89km2, Middle Right Advance = 2.46km2

Following on from picture 1, shortly after their capture of Yablunivka the Russian assault groups there have moved out into the surrounding fields and treelines, capturing several of them. Whilst they have cut the main road into Yunakivka there are still several dirt paths and treelines leading into the town from the forests to the south, so the Ukrainian garrison has not been cut off (yet).

To the east, a few Russian recon groups have been making their way into the small forest areas southwest of Oleshnya, clearing one out. There have also been a number of reports that some of these groups have even made it as far as the Sadky farms. If true, this would put Yunakivka in danger of being functionally encircled, as Russian soldiers in the forests around Sadky could use ATGMs to hit vehicles/soldiers trying to reinforce or supply Yunakivka. We will have to wait for further information to see if this is true though.

As for Yunakivka itself, both Russia and Ukraine have been quiet regarding the ongoing battles, with virtually no footage released from the town and only generic reports about progress.

Russian Forces Advance: 1.87 km²

Lower Left Advance = 0.53km2, Bottom Left Advance = 1.34km2

Following on from picture 2, Russian assault groups have slightly expanded the southern pincer around Zelena Dolyna. They have also cleared some of the treelines to the southeast of the village as well.

Russian Forces Advance: 3.36 km²

Advance = 3.36km2

Back to the Pokrovsk front, this time north of Horikhove where Russian infantry have managed to clear several treelines and fields. This puts them within 1km of Dnipro Oblast, but more importantly they now have a route to launch an attack on Horikhove from the northwest side, which will complicate the Ukrainian defence. Russia needs to capture Horikhove before it can consider any sort of push into Dnipro Oblast, otherwise they will constantly be attacked from the flank.

Russian Forces Advance: 5.91 km²

Advance = 5.92km2

Context

Following on from picture 11, Russian forces finished clearing the last few buildings in Fedorivka, confirming full control of the village.

Adjacent to this, Russian assault groups continued advancing east of the Mokri Yaly River, with the first few soldiers reaching and entering Komar from the south. This does mean that Russia has ignored flanking the town (which I mentioned a few weeks back) and has chosen to assault it head on instead. I can’t say I agree with this opinion, but Russian command seems to believe that they can take Komar quicker this way, so we will have to wait and see how the battle develops.

Russian Forces Advance: 10.89 km²

Advance = 10.89km2

On the eastern side of the Zaporizhia front, in a somewhat unexpected move Russian soldiers have gone on the attack around Malynivka, quickly taking control of a large area of fields and treelines (was mostly greyzone) over the span of a day and a half. This part of the front has been extremely quiet for a long time, with the last advance by either side here taking place back in late 2023. Russia is likely trying to make a quick opportunistic advance here to seize Malynivka, taking advantage of how quiet this area has been to catch Ukraine off-guard. They have yet to enter Malynivka, but we will have to wait and see if Ukraine can hold their defences on the edge of the village.

Ukrainian Forces Advance: 0.76 km²

Bottom Left Advance = 0.76km2