UA POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1215 to 1217 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian Forces Advance: 13.95 km²

Advance = 13.95km2

We’re starting this update up in Sumy, where following on from the previous update Ukraine has continued its counterattacks across the front. Over the span of a week Ukrainian assault groups were able to recapture the fields and treelines around Mala Korchakivka (was mostly greyzone), reach Andriivka and retake the settlement before the Russian forces could dig in after the captured it the week prior. Both sides took losses in the heavy fighting (video 1, video 2, video 3), and Andriivka has now become an utter mess with some of the densest droning and bombing of any area of the entire frontline.

With the arrival of more Ukrainian units, mostly from the Tetkino area, fighting on the Sumy front has returned to what it was like prior to the large Russian gains in May and early June; a heavy slog dominated by drones. Ukraine shifting its units back to this part of the Sumy front from Tetkino is also why news of that area has ground to a halt, as Ukraine has run out of steam and no longer has the forces to try take the town after the Russian 1427th Motorised Rifle brigade arrived (they could move units back in the future though).

Russian Forces Advance: 1.17 km²

Upper Left Advance = 0.38km2, Bottom Left Advance = 0.79km2

Down to the Velyka Novosilka front, on the north side, Russian assault groups have begun to move out of the village of Zaporizhzhya into nearby Yalta, taking advantage of the relatively weak Ukrainian lines here.

Context

To the south, a Russian assault group crossed the Mokri Yaly River in Komar and captured the village of Perebudova (1 street, directly on the other side of the river from Komar). This was to be expected as there was simply no way for Ukraine to hold such a small village once they lost Komar, as the town overlooks all roads in and out of Perebudova. Russia will have some difficulty in moving onto Myrne, as there is the small Tonka River and no cover between Perebudova and Myrne. They will either have to advance on it from the south (from Fedorivka) or make an incredibly risky dash across the open to try gain a foothold before Ukraine responds.

Context

Moving southwest, the Russian assault of Shevchenko continues, with their troops taking over the entirety of the southern side and have started clearing the first streets on the northern side. Ukraine once again suffers from a lack of infantry here, making urban combat difficult.

Context

No Advance

Over on the Kupyansk front, clashes continue in Kindrashivka, with neither side currently coming out on top. At the same time, over the past few days Russian infantry groups have moved down along the Oskil River and reached the village of Holubivka. They are currently assaulting it, however Suriyak has held off on marking Russian control until there is confirmation these troops managed to secure positions (so no advance yet).

Russian Forces Advance: 3.24 km²

Middle Advance = 1.89km2, Bottom Left Advance = 1.35km2

Down on the Oskil River front, a few Russian infantry groups pushed up and entered Hrekivka, capturing most of the village and part of the adjacent forest area. The settlement only has a few buildings and minimal defences nearby, so quick Russian progress was expected. They’ll need to secure the surrounding area and capture some of the Ukrainian trenches to the north in order to ensure that Ukraine can’t drive them out in a counterattack.

To the southwest, at least 1 Russian group has moved out of Ridkodub to the north, trying to reach Hlushchenkove. For now they have only taken over the treeline north of the village, but will be looking to assault Hlushchenkove in the coming days.

Russian Forces

Top Right = No Advance (Reduction in RU control), Middle Left Advance = 0.13km2

Context

On the Pokrovsk front, starting on the west side, one Russian group from Novoserhiivka has started moving north of the village, taking over a nearby farm. This seems to be part of a push to expand the buffer around Novoserhiivka and also capture the small reservoir to the north.

Over to the east, Suriyak has confirmed Sukhyi Yar is still firmly under Ukrainian control, as it has been for months. The only change here is a slight expansion in the greyzone, with Russian being shown to no longer control one of the treelines south of the village. I’m not entirely sure why Suriyak chose to highlight this, as I haven’t seen any discussions about Sukhyi Yar in quite a while.

Russian Forces Advance: 1.36 km²

Top Left Advance = 0.73km2, Bottom Left Advance = 0.63km2

Following on from picture 2, the first Russian assault group entered Yalta, taking up positions in the eastern houses. Like with the capture of Zaporizhzhya, they are clearing the settlement out quite quickly as there are very few Ukrainian soldiers here to defend.

To the southwest, Russian assault groups have expanded their control of northern Shevchenko, taking over the eastern side of the village.

Ukrainian Forces Advance: 9.36 km²

Advance = 9.36km2

Back up in Sumy, this time on the east side of the front where Ukraine has counterattacked around the Sadky farms, recapturing several forest areas. They were able to achieve this as there are few defensive positions here and the Russian infantry that took these forests had not yet dug in, so were able to be knocked out by a sudden series of attacks. Russia is now bombing the area, so we’ll likely see a bit of back and forth as they trade positions in the forests.

Russian Forces Advance: 4.74 km²

Advance = 4.74km2

Context

Following on from picture 3, Russian troops were confirmed to have captured most of Holubivka, as well as several treelines and fields around the settlement. This now expands the options Russia has for an attack on Kupyansk, as the first houses of the town are less than 1km from the southernmost part of Holubivka. Russia can also start pressuring the remaining Ukrainian forces in Kindrashivka and Radkivka with a push to the west, if they would prefer to attack Kupyansk from that area instead.

Ukrainian Forces Advance: 4.30 km²

Left Top Left Advance = 1.11km2, Middle Top Left Advance = 2.25km2, Right Top Left Advance = 0.94km2

Context

Following on from picture 4, there have been several changes around Ridkodub. Going from west to east, Russia was unable to hold its positions on the west side of Karpivka, and were forced to retreat to the east side of the Nitrius River.

Shortly after, Ukraine launched a counterattack towards Ridkodub, retaking the nearby treeline and re-entering the village. Heavy clashes are ongoing with both sides dedicating a lot of drones and artillery to try to capture/keep control of Ridkodub.

At the same time as this, to the north there was a minor Russian advance towards Hlushchenkove. This small Russian group almost certainly won’t make an attempt on that village until the situation in Ridkodub is resolved, as they wouldn’t be able to hold the settlement even if they captured it without control of Ridkodub (supply route).

Russian Forces Advance: 0.08 km²

Advance = 0.08km2

Context

In Chasiv Yar, Russian forces made a minor advance in the western suburbs, as they continue clearing out the last of the ruins. As mentioned many times before, the sheer density of drone teams and artillery mean advances by either side are extremely slow and difficult, so don’t expect many changes.

Russian Forces Advance: 4.65 km²

Top Right Advance = 1.51km2, Upper Middle Advance = 3.14km2

Over to the Toretsk front, Ukraine was able to counterattack in Bila Hora, retaking some of the greyzone, eastern houses and one of the trench networks nearby.

Ukraine is not out of the woods in Bila Hora yet though, as to the south Russian assault groups finished clearing the last of the northern Dyliivka, establishing full control of the settlement. If these assault groups push northwest along the Balmutka river, they can attack western Bila Hora, opening up another angle Ukraine needs to defend. They could also just move straight north across the fields, although that will be much more difficult to pull off.

Southwest, Russia has also begun sending recon groups into Scherbynivka, as Ukraine is forced to pull back from its forward positions due to supply issues.

Russian Forces Advance: 0.28 km²

Advance = 0.28km2

On the east side of the Pokrovsk front, there was a minor Russian advance in one of the treelines north of Shevchenko Pershe, clearing it out.

Russian Forces Advance: 3.64 km²

Left Advance = 1.59km2, Middle Left Advance = 2.05km2

Context

Following on from picture 5, Russian assault groups were confirmed to have captured Novoserhiivka, establishing full control over the settlement (likely happened a couple of days earlier). At the same time, they have been sending small infantry groups north of the village to secure the treelines and buildings around the Dovhopiata reservoir.

From here Russia could continue advancing west along the Solona River, however there aren’t any roads and there is minimal cover between Novoserhiivka and the next Biliakivka (next village on north side of the river). Thus Russia is likely to start turning its attention to the north, whilst smaller groups from Novomykolaivka might try reach Biliakivka (as they are closer).