RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1221 to 1223 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Starting on the Oskil River front, there were a series of movements made by both sides over the past few days. Going counterclockwise, Russia made a minor advance west of Novomykhailivka, as they gradually straighten the frontline there.

Southwest, Ukrainian troops continued their counterattack in Ridkodub, taking over the northern warehouses. Control of the village is now split 50/50 between the sides, with heavy clashes ongoing.

Going southwest again, Ukraine has taken advantage of the focus on Ridkodub to make a smaller advance east of Karpivka, capturing a larger treeline as they try push Russia away from the village.

To the southeast, the first Russian assault group entered Zelena Dolyna, taking over the eastern houses and part of the forest area. It’s unlikely Ukraine will be able to hold their positions in the village now that Russian troops are in the settlement and also advancing on the flanks.

Over to the Chasiv Yar front, where Russian forces have gone on the attack north of the town. In addition to securing the remaining fields and treelines up to the canal around Hryhorivka, Russian troops have also managed to capture the last of the quarry and fields on the west side of the canal around Kalinina.

Whilst this does help Russia secure the northern side of Chasiv Yar, any further advances towards Maiske or Markove will be difficult due to the defences and minefields in this area, so don’t expect this kind of progress to continue in the short term.

Down to the east side of the Pokrovsk front, Russian has continued its activity across a wide area over the past 4 days, making good progress. Starting on the north side, their troops were able to secure the fields and treelines around Koptjeve, allowing them to push up to Novotoretske. Whilst they have not entered the village yet, they will be able to do so once they secure a few more treelines on either the south or east side of the settlement.

To the south, a few Russian recon groups have also been pushing west of Koptjeve and Myrne, resulting in the capture of most of the remaining buildings in the latter, whilst also taking over a number of fields and treelines. This does put Russia within striking distance of Mykolaivka, but it will be difficult for them to establish a foothold as Ukraine has a strong garrison in neighbouring Novoekonomichne.

Moving south again, a few Russian recon groups have also been active around Myrolyubivka and Hrodivka, clearing out a couple of fields and treelines. Whilst I doubt this is a precursor to a push on Myrnohrad, the Russians are at least probing this area for weaknesses and testing the Ukrainian response.

Down to the Velyka Novosilka and Novopavlivka fronts, where over the past 3 days Russia has made some significant gains. Going counterclockwise again, a couple of Russian assault groups have been clearing the fields and treelines between Horikhove and Oleksiivka, aiming to close the small pocket and straighten the front towards Novopavlivka.

At the same time as this, to the west, a few other Russian assault groups were confirmed to have cleared and captured the entirety of Novoukrainka and Dachne, the latter of which is the first settlement Russia has captured in Dnipro Oblast. As I’ve mentioned many times before, Ukraine had mostly been forced to withdraw from this area after the loss of Oleksiivka, resulting in Russia also being able to cross the Vovcha River in several places and take over a number of fields and treelines. Once Russia properly secures this area, they can push the entire frontline north towards Pavlivka, whilst also either cutting off or simply capturing the small village of Filiya.

Adjacent to the above, other Russian units were busy clearing out and capturing Zirka and the last of the fields and treelines between the Vovcha and Mokri Yaly rivers. As I’ve said previously, Ukraine had mostly abandoned this area due to the problems with supplying troops and weak defences, preferring to hold the frontline on the opposite bank on the Mokri Yaly River. This river is not particularly wide and the frontline has shifted quite a bit in the past few weeks, so the question now becomes whether Russia can keep its momentum up and successfully cross the river in several areas or if Ukraine can stabilise and reform their defence line.

A little further south, one Russian group has started to move out of Fedorivka, clearing a couple of fields and treelines northwest of the village. As I mentioned in a previous post, reaching Myrne from Perebedova would be quite difficult, so Russia will need to attack it from the north or south side, which is what they are starting to do here.

Onto the Siversk front, where over the past week Russia has managed to consolidate its positions in Serebryanka. Clashes are currently ongoing, and it will be still be quite difficult for Russia to reinforce its assault groups and take the entire town. However if they are able to, it will finally allow them to begin the moving in on Siversk directly.

South of this, some Russian recon groups have been active north of the Chubarivskyi Pond, moving from Verkhnokamyanske and clearing some of the treelines and dugouts in the area. As Suriyak notes, this is just 1.6km from the outskirts of Siversk, but its important to remember that Ukraine has a solid defence line around the town. Thus Russia is unlikely to be able to begin the assault on Siversk from this east side unless they can neutralise these defence or attack them across a much wider area.

Following on from picture 4, on the northeast side, Russia made some minor gains around Horikhove, continuing to clear the fields and treelines east of the Dnipro-Donetsk Border.

To the southwest, the Russian push from Fedorivka has continued, with the same group clearing a few more treelines and fields. They are now directly south of Myrne and could head towards the settlement now, however they may also try push a bit further west before heading north in order to flank the village.

Moving southwest again, over the past couple of days Russia has continued increasing the buffer around Shevchenko, seizing a number of fields and treelines. Their goal is now to reach Voskerenka, a large village north of Shevchenko. Whilst they head north, it is also possible Russia may push slightly into Dnipro Oblast in order to capture the village of Malinivka, as that is not far away from them and Ukrainian counterattacks from there could hinder their assault on Voskresenka.

On the Zaporizhia front, on the west side, Russia was confirmed to have secured at least a small portion of the north side of Kamyanske, with fighting ongoing as they try secure a larger foothold.

To the east, Ukraine was shown to have retaken the northern side of Shcherbaky. Russia had taken over the village a while ago, but constant drone attacks likely forced them to withdraw from the few houses on the north side. It’s unclear exactly when Ukraine re-entered the settlement (due to lack of footage), but they have a small number of infantry hiding in the ruined buildings.

Following on from picture 1, during the clashes in Ridkodub Russian forces were able to retake the central houses and force Ukraine to withdraw from the northern warehouses they had taken 2 days prior. Heavy clashes are ongoing as Russia continues trying to push Ukraine back out of the village.

To the southwest, another Russian group was able to recapture the houses and part of the treeline they had lost control of two days prior in a counterattack. Clashes are also ongoing here in Karpivka, although at a slightly lower intensity than Ridkodub.

Following on from picture 3, over the past couple of weeks Ukraine was able to retake Myrolyubivka in a series of counterattacks. In early June Ukraine had counterattacked and managed to reach the northern side of the settlement once again, and have been continuing to try push Russia out since then. Personally I believe that whilst Ukraine has retaken over half of the small town, the southern side is likely in the greyzone as from footage available it does not look like Ukraine has been able to secure that area. Nonetheless, Suriyak believes they have taken over all of it and they would likely be able to take the southern side if they keep advancing as they are.

Russia is likely to counterattack, although that could occur from either the south or east side. There is also the possibility that Russia ignores Myrolyubivka and tries to take Mykolaivka behind it.

Following on from picture 7, Russian forces continued to expand the buffer around Shevchenko and are now closing in on Maliivka. As mentioned before, they might try capture the settlement before they advance on Voskresenka, but there is a Ukrainian defence line along the Donetsk-Dnipro Border that will hinder them.

Speaking of Voskresenka, a few Russian and Ukrainian sources mentioned at least one Russian squad breaking into the village. It is unclear whether they were able to establish a foothold or were wiped out.

Over to the Zaporizhia front, over the past few days the Russian assault groups in Malynivka were able to drive Ukraine out of the remainder of the settlement and clear the buildings, confirming full control of the small town. This is the first settlement that has changed hands on the eastern half of the Zaporizhia front in wea long time, however I do not think we will see much come out of this. Whilst Russia may push on north to Poltavka, this front remains relatively static and stable, with there being too many defences and minefields for either side to make much progress.