RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1224 to 1228 of the War - Suriyakmaps

We’re starting this update off on the Toretsk front, where on the north side, where once again Russian assault groups have entered Bila Hora. Over several days they managed to push up the treelines from Dyliivka and enter the eastern houses, with clashes ongoing as they try push deeper into the village. There will likely be a lot of back and forth here as Ukraine counterattacks to prevent Russia from pushing deeper into the settlement, which would lead to their positions along the canal being cut off from supplies.

Southwest, Russia made a minor advance around the quarry, taking over a treeline north of the Novodzerzhinskaya Mine. They have yet to make another attempt on the mine, but are clearly positioning themselves for one.

On the east side of the Pokrovsk front, Russian assault groups have moved west of Koptjeve and taken over a number of fields and treelines. Most of these had been abandoned by Ukraine, hence the ease in which they were captured, but they still need to make sure there are no stragglers left. As has been discussed by many sources, they are clearly beelining it for Razine, although whether Ukraine lets them cross the river will determine whether they can assault the village or are forced to retreat.

There was also a minor advance south of Myrne, with some Russian troops clearing out part of a treeline.

On the Velyka Novosilka front, at least two Russian assault groups crossed the Mokri Yaly River south of Zirka, taking up positions in a small forest near the main road of the area. Several Russian sources have already stated these groups had made it into Piddubne, but as of this update being posted only this part of the advance could be confirmed. If Russia can cross the Mokri Yaly so easily and take Piddubne, it would indicate Ukraine’s forces in this area are weaker than previously thought.

On the Zaporizhia front, Russian assault groups were confirmed to have secured positions on the northern side of Kamyanske and are fanning out across the settlement. Ukraine’s garrison here do not seem to have been prepared for such a quick Russian push and dash across the stream, so they are struggling to reorganise and counterattack.

Heading up to Kursk, with Ukraine having rotated units away from Tetkino a few weeks ago to stabilise the lines in Sumy, their pressure has eased significantly and allowed Russia to counterattack. Over a few days Russian troops from the town pushed east and recaptured part of the treeline and one of the trench networks near Tetkino. Whilst this does secure the outskirts of the town, the threat of renewed Ukrainian attacks is still present, although with most of their assault units no longer in the area I doubt they could pull anything major off.

Onto the Oskil River front, over the past week Ukraine launched several counterattacks into Zahryzove, recapturing most of the village and part of the fields east of it. This is not the first time Ukraine has counterattacked here and almost taken Zahryzov, and like the previous back in February their goal is to push Russia away from the banks of the Oskil and relink the supply routes of the Oskil and Kupyansk fronts.

Over in Chasiv Yar, Russian assault groups continue to push into the western suburbs and have captured several streets, including recapturing most of the area Ukraine took in a counterattack the previous week. There is now only a small section of western and southern Chasiv Yar left to take before Russia controls the entire town, although as always this will take a while as fighting in Chasiv Yar under the dense drone cover is difficult and slow.

They are also trying to push into the neighbouring village of Mykolaivka, although the claim by some Russian sources that they have already captured most of it are false.

Following on from picture 2, not only were the Russian assault groups able to reach the Kazenyi Torets River, but they were also able to cross it and quickly captured Razine. From what I can tell it seems Ukraine was completely unprepared for any kind of attack on Razine, so the few troops in the area were rapidly driven back. I do question this decision by the Russian command, as holding Razine will be almost impossible if Ukraine counterattacks (only supply is over a portion of river with no bridges). However their logic may be that if they can hold Razine, they might be able to push on Novoekonomichne from the north or push up to Fedorivka and Boikivka to make the capture of Novotoretske easier. Either way, I’m not sure they will be able to hold Razine.

At the same time as the above, a Russian group also cleared out part of the fields and treelines north of Myrne. The village is mostly under Russian control, but taking the last few houses on the western edge is difficult purely because there is no where to hold from (too destroyed, nowhere to hide).

Following on from picture 4, Russian assault groups quickly expanded their control of Kamyanske, clearing out Ukrainian positions in the central, eastern and western sides of the town. Ukraine has been unable to stabilise with its garrison being picked off, so its unlikely they will be able to drive Russia back across the stream. About 80% of Kamyanske is under Russian control, with the remaining portion under pressure.

Russia will need to bring more troops across if they wish to push much further and secure their gains, but unless Ukraine suddenly gathers up enough forces for a counterattack they should be able to do this over the next week or 2.

Heading up to the Kharkiv Border area and northern side of the Kupyansk front, one of the more interesting events this week was a new Russian crossing into Kharkiv. Over the first few days of July Russia began to sneak small numbers of infantry across the Kozynka River (which is the Russia-Ukraine border here), setting up multiple small footholds in and around Milove. They then gradually expanded these footholds, capturing Milove, before pushing out into the surrounding fields and forest areas with further reinforcements.

Russia now holds a sizeable foothold in a relatively remote part of Kharkiv, although I would not expect much to come of this in the short term. Milove sits within 100m of the international border, so is not manned due to it being impossible to hold/withstand any attacks. Instead Ukrainian border guards and other military units based further inland protect this area with drones and some smaller response forces. These troops are only really designed to stop smaller infiltrations and to spot any potential buildup, not defend against Russian assault units. Add in that the defence of this area has been hollowed out by demands of other fronts and it is no surprise that Russia was able to easily cross and quickly expand their control.

I will note though that we are highly unlikely to see any sort of Russian offensive here. These are only small groups that have made an advance due to an absence of Ukrainian forces, but do not have the numbers to push much deeper into Kharkiv. Unless Russia suddenly pulls new units here, it is more a distraction than anything and will force a Ukrainian response lest they take over even more of the border. Ironically I mentioned this area as being one where Russia might cross 5 months back when I spoke about possible Russian options for Dvorichna, but as you may know they focused on trying to push to Kupyansk rather than move west.

To the southeast, Russian forces continued their low intensity operations around Stroivka and Topoli,, securing a few forest areas. This is mostly unrelated to the other advance, as their operations here have been ongoing for months now.

ollowing on from picture 3, the Russian assault groups that crossed the Mokri Yaly River were confirmed to have entered Piddubne, quickly taking over most of the village. As mentioned before, Ukraine’s forces on this front have been struggling for a while now and are even weaker than anticipated, allowing Russia to quickly clear most of the settlement. Any surviving members of the Ukrainian garrison, if there was much of one, stand little chance of turning the situation around, with Russia likely to take the settlement within the next few days. This advance also saw Russia securing thje bridge north of Komar, which should make reinforcements and supply easier for these assault groups (if it is still standing).

To the south, a different Russian group pushed north of Shevchenko and took over a trench network, as they work on making their way towards Voskresenka.

On the southern side of the Kupyansk front and relating to picture 6, footage of Russian shelling indicated that at some point in the past month Ukraine had retaken fields and treelines northeast of Kolisnykivka. Whilst there are unlikely to be many Ukrainian soldiers in this area, combined with the counterattack in picture 6, Russian positions near the Oskil are becoming increasingly precarious. A combined attack by Ukraine from both sides could see Russia driven out of Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka, or worse, encircled against the bank of the river. This would not be easy to pull off, but is still a possibility.

On the central part of the Oskil River front, another video of shelling confirms that in late June Ukraine made a minor advance into Novoiehorivka, taking over part of the village. There is not much cover here and little activity by either side, hence the lack of reports and advances. Ukraine may continue to push her to retake Novoiehorivka, but given how unimportant it is and events on other parts of this front they will likely only try if the opportunity arises.

Back to the Chasiv Yar front, this time north of the town where Russia continues to push the frontline around Hryhorivka up to the canal. They managed to clear and capture another small section of fields and treelines near the canal, with any further pushes north of here unlikely to occur until Orikhovo-Vasylivka (under the a) is captured, which is not a Russian priority at the moment.

Following on from picture 8, Russia made a minor advance northeast of Koptjeve, clearing out a treeline.

To the east on the Kostyantynivka front, during the clashes in Yablunivka Russia was unable to maintain their positions in the centre of the town and were pushed back, with Ukraine recapturing several buildings. Back and forth fighting continues here, with many attacks and counterattacks by both sides.

Slightly east of this, Ukraine managed to counterattack back into Oleksandro-Kalynove and recaptured the northernmost houses. Russia still controls the majority of the village (and never fully took it), but Ukraine will be looking to push them back out to restore the defence line in this area.

Following on from picture 11, Russian forces completely cleared Piddubne, confirming full control of the village. They were also able to secure the fields and treelines immediately around it, already working on establishing a buffer. I mentioned in the previous post that I believed Russia would likely try to push north from their positions northwest of Fedorivka to assault Myrne and then Piddubne, as they already had a firm foothold there on the other side of the Mokri Yaly River.

However I underestimated how weak the Ukrainian lines were here, with Russia instead simply crossing over shortly after they took Zirka and quickly capturing Piddubne. Now they have a firm foothold further north than expected, with a supply route (via Komar), meaning further pushes in the last part of west Donetsk will be much easier. Myrne is also now in a dire position, surrounded on 3 sides with only some dirt paths for supply, but now I doubt whether there are many Ukrainians even in the settlement or if they have had to completely abandon this area. The one bridge in Andriivka Klevtsove has now been destroyed by FABs, meaning Ukrainian supplies to this part of the frontline are now heavily restricted until they can set up some pontoons or bridging vehicles.

Slightly north of this advance, a different Russian assault group has moved up to the outskirts of Tolstoi and is assaulting the village.

From Picture 15