RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1247 to 1250 of the War - Suriyakmaps

For this post we are starting on the Kupyansk front, where Russia has decided to launch an assault directly on the western side of the town. After several months of back and forth clashes just north of Kupyansk Russian forces were able to secure positions in and around Kindrashivka and Radkivka, giving them a foothold to push onto the town. Russian assault groups captured the remainder of Holubivka (village along the Oskil River north of Kupyansk) as well as pushing into the northern suburbs, taking over many of the warehouses and industrial facilities in the area. Heavy clashes are ongoing as Russia attempts to push further into the town and Ukraine begins to counterattack to try drive them back north. Ukraine has to hold western Kupyansk, otherwise the entire Kupyansk pocket will fall as the majority of supplies for the many units on the east side of the Oskil River travel through the town.

Adjacent to this, there was a somewhat odd advance by a couple of Russian infantry, who managed to sneak up the treeline south of Tyshchenkivka and reach the railway line southwest of the village. This is only a few soldiers and so are unlikely to be looking to assault the village themselves, but it does point to Russia being more aggressive in probing and attacking Ukrainian lines here to try exploit gaps.

To the southeast, Russian troops continue to operate around Stepova Novoselivka, not only driving back Ukraine from the positions they had recaptured the previous week, but also managed to secure a few more fields and treelines west of the settlement. They are now at the point where they can consider making a push for Pishchane, a village that sits next to the railway running to Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi.

On the Oskil River front, as I predicted in the previous post, Russian infantry in the Serebryansky forest have continued to push west of their recent gains, crossing a small stream and are now trying to attack southern Torske. It is unknown whether they were able to secure any positions in this area, so is being left as greyzone for now.

On the Kostyantynivka front (east side of picture), over the past 5 days Russian assault groups continued to push further into Yablunivka, reaching the far eastern side of the town and also clearing out majority of the fields to the south of it. At this stage Ukraine’s garrison have all but been defeated in Yablunivka and Oleksandro-Kalynove, with the remainder withdrawing to the forest areas and fortifications to the north. Russian assault groups are currently working on clearing out the remaining buildings, which will not take them long.

Over to the west on the east side of the Pokrovsk front, Russian assault groups pushed in on Mykolaivka and Novoekonomichne from the north and south, knocking out the Ukrainian garrison and forcing them to retreat west into the mines and the city of Myrohrad. Mykolaivka fell quickly as the Ukrainian counterattack that recaptured it was short lived (could not hold positions), but with Novoekonomichne I believe Suriyak was incorrect last week in saying that the Russian mechanised group that entered the town a few weeks prior was unable to consolidate positions, given we now know that southern Novoekonomichne fell to Russian troops from that side. Russia is fully in control of Novoekonomichne and Mykolaivka, although as usual Suriyak is being overly cautious and has left a chunk in the greyzone whilst he waited for further confirmation (which came shortly later).

On the other side of the Pokrovsk front and the southern side of the city itself, my comment from the previous post was proven to be true as new video evidence and reports showed that Russia had indeed begun an attack on the city directly and had made progress in the surrounding area in the days/week leading up to this update. Russian assault groups captured the remainder of Zvirove and most of Leontovychi over the past week or two, giving them direct access to the city. As you are likely already aware, Russian DRGs have already pushed deep into Pokrovsk and their assault groups are currently working on securing the southern suburbs of the city, where clashes are taking place.

Nearby, a different Russian group pushed east out of Shevchenko up the railway line, taking over some of the wind breaks and most of the village of Novoukrainka. This direction of attack is aimed at taking advantage of Ukraine’s focus on the fighting for the city itself to capture the fortifications and villages south and southeast of Pokrovsk, as Ukraine is forced to pull back into the city.

Heading up to the Sumy front, Russian assault groups were unable to maintain their counterattack in Kindrativka, with Ukraine pushing them out and securing the village. Russia is continuing to heavily bombard and shell the settlement, but for now Ukraine has control and will continue working on reinforcing it and securing the surrounding area.

Following on from picture 3, Russian troops cleared out and captured most of the remainder of Yablunivka as well the entirety of neighbouring Oleksandro-Kalynove. There are now only a few houses north of the Bychok River for Russia to capture before they have full control of Yablunivka, which they are working on now. This also means that Ukraine has lost access to the western side of the small pocket that formed south of the large reservoir, so Russia may begin pushing east from here through the forest area to reach Klebank-Byk.

To the west, the previously reported movements of Russian infantry groups were confirmed, with Russian troops entering and taking over a number of fields and treelines west of Boikivka and Fedorivka, as well as taking over the eastern houseso f the village of Zatshok. They are also working on assaulting Nykanorivka to the north, with the goal of taking over the village and pushing on to the railway.

Suriyak also marked the last section of Novoekonomichne as Russian controlled, although as mentioned in Picture 3 this happened the previous day.

Up on the northern front, there was a minor advance in the forest area east of Tykhe, with some Russian infantry making a bit more progress in clearing it out.

On the southern side of the Oskil River front, Russian infantry managed to make their way deeper into Serebryansky forest, taking over the Ugolek resort. As I mentioned in this comment, there is some confusion on how these Russian troops managed to reach this area, with Suriyak claiming they advanced west along the lakes and rivers through the forest itself, whilst I believe they likely came by boat up the Siverskyi Donets and walked through the southern part of the forest.

Regardless of how they reached there, this advance shows that Ukrainian positions in the Serebryansky forest are now more vulnerable than ever due to advances on the Siversk front and around Torske, so Ukraine may be slowly driven out of this eastern section if Russia continues to push here.

Following on from picture 6, Ukraine launched a mechanised counterattack east of Rodynske, with the goal of reaching Razine. Whilst there is little footage of the attack, at least some Ukrainian troops managed to reach Razine and take up positions in the houses there. Unfortunately for Ukraine this counterattack came too late to stabilise the situation on this side of the Pokrovsk front, as Russian troops already captured Novoekonomichne, Fedorivka and Boikivka, as well as a number of fortifications, giving them ample positions on the west side of the Kazenyi Torets River.

Had Ukraine launched this counterattack a few weeks back when Razine was the only settlement Russia had control of in this area, they might have been able to buy time for Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad and stop the Russians for pushing in from the northeast for weeks, if not months longer. But as is, Russia had mostly moved on from Razine (hence why it was seemingly empty) and are occupying other positions in the area. The Ukrainian troops that are in Razine are already being hit by drones and it is unlikely they will be able to maintain positions here for long.

Following on from picture 4, Russian assault groups were confirmed to have cleared and taken positions in the southernmost suburb of the city. They are currently working on pushing east from here into the Shakhtrask district, as well as to the north towards Tryoanda and the west side of the city.

Russian DRGs remain active throughout Pokrovsk and to a lesser degree in Myrnohrad, with Ukraine having serious difficulty finding and clearing them out due to dealing with the Russians pushing on all sides, a breakdown in communications and a lack of coordination between the many units stationed in the cities. With the battle for Pokrovsk (the city) and Myrnohrad kicking off, I’d like to note that we are highly unlikely to get consistent updates about the progress of the fighting from either side. Aside from shelling videos such as these (video 1, video 2, video 3, video 4, video 5) and quick-cut drone hits, we will not get much information until one of the sides makes a significant gain or is confident that the release of such information would not jeopardise the battle.

Moving onto the Velyka Novosilka front, on the north side, after over a week of clashes Russian assault groups cleared and captured Zelenyi Hai. As with all settlement battles on this front this year, the Russians shelled, bombed and droned Ukrainian positions extensively before moving in on the ground to clear out the surviving parts of the garrison (if any). They also wasted no time in expanding their control of the surrounding area (mostly empty), taking over a number of treelines and fields around the small town. Whilst this does put Russian troops right near the town of Ivanivka, they are unlikely (although still possible) to make a move on that settlement until they capture Andriivka-Klevtsove to the west.

Down south, another set of Russian assault groups has been working in and around Maliivka over the past week, managing to push through the fortifications on the eastern side and capture the village. This is the second settlement in Dnipro Oblast that Russia has captured, with Maliivka also being the eastern edge of the second layer of Ukraine’s Zaporizhia Defence line, thus allowing Russia to start working their way west along it to unravel it from the side and behind.

Following on from picture 1, heavy clashes continue on the northern side of Kupyansk between Russian assault groups and the Ukrainian garrison. Whilst this has been ongoing, some other Russian groups have pushed west and southwest, entering Moskovka (village next to Kupyansk) and clashing with Ukrainian troops coming from Kovalivka to the east. Whilst they have not yet been able to secure positions in Moskovka, the situation is still critical for Ukraine as Russia is trying to wrap around western Kupyansk to cut the town off from supplies.

On the Siversk front, over the past week Russian forces have launched a new series of attacks east of the town itself and south of Serebryanka. Whilst Russia was unable to secure any positions from these attacks, it did force Ukraine to retreat from a chunk of this area, which has now become greyzone. We will have to wait and see if Russia can take advantage of this and secure these empty fortifications or if Ukraine can move back in before that.

Following on from picture 6, Russian assault groups have continued their operations between Poltavka and Volodymyrivks, taking over a large area of fields, treelines, fortifications and the Dobropolsky and Biryuch quarries. Whilst clashes continue within Poltavka, these groups are trying to move north and northwest, likely to assault Volodymyrivka and eventually Shakhove. Some Russian groups reportedly entered the former a few days back, but there has not yet been any information to confirm whether they established a foothold or were forced out.

To the west, at least one Russian assault group entered Nykanorivka where they are trying to establish a foothold in the eastern houses. Ukraine’s defence of this area north of Pokrovsk is a mess, so it is hard to judge whether there will be a clash over the village or if there even is a Ukrainian garrison in the first place.

Following on from picture 11, wasting no time after their capture of Zelenyi Hai, Russian assault groups have moved on south of the village and west of Tolstoi, clearing out the majority of the remainder of the tree plantation here. They are clearly positioning themselves for an assault on Andriivka-Klevtsove, which is quite vulnerable currently as the only bridge linking in the settlement linking it to Dnipro Oblast was taken out a little less than a month ago. Whilst supplies can still be carried across and there is a possibility a pontoon bridge may have been set up, it is still in a difficult position as Ukrainian units on this front are exhausted, disorganised and low on manpower.

A separate Russian group from Piddubne also cleared out a couple of fields south of the above advance, working on straightening the frontline in this area.

Further south on the same front, Russian assault groups in and around Zelene Pole have become active once again, taking over several fields and treelines northeast and west of the village. The western push is the main focus for them, as starting a few weeks back Russia began to heavily shell and bomb Temyrivka as they prepare for an assault.

There are many fortifications around Temyrivka owing to it being the eastern edge of the first layer of Ukraine’s Zaporizhia Defence line, however most of these were built to withstand attacks from the south and most are likely empty, so will provide Russian troops cover as they move on the settlement

Heading over to the west side of Zaporizhia front, Russian assault groups have continued working on clearing out Plavni over the past 4 days, capturing a couple of streets and expanding the greyzone somewhat as Ukraine is poorly defending the small town (lack of troops), allowing them to be more aggressive in their pushes.

Just east of this, at least one Russian assault group was reported to have reached the southern apartment district of Stepnohirsk, with a follow up video claiming to be from a Ukrainian drone targeting said Russian troops. Ironically at the end of the previous post I mentioned that it would surprise me if the Russians could make it to this district through the fields and now at the end of this post they have been proven to have done so.

To explain, I believed the ground was too open in this area for a Russian push to occur, as the lack of cover and minefields would make any Russian troops sitting ducks for Ukrainian drone operators. They have proven me wrong and managed to establish themselves in some of the apartment buildings and will be working on bringing in extra forces now to set up the district as a forward base for the fighting in Stepnohirsk.