RU POV: Russian advances from Day 1263 to 1267 of the War - Suriyakmaps

For today’s update we’re starting out on the Oskil River front, in the Serebryansky forest. Following on from their recent successes there, Russian assault groups continued to press the attack, capturing a number of positions in the centre of the front, as well as the substation. Adjacent to this, other Russian groups are continuing to work on the small pocket that formed in the east side of the forest, clearing out the numerous trenches and dugouts of any remaining Ukrainian soldiers.

As mentioned in a comment early this week, there is a localised collapse of Ukrainian lines occurring in the Serebryansky area. Constant pressure has worn down the defenders (53rd Mechanised Brigade) and with no reinforcements or rotations coming due to events on other fronts the line broke when Russia launched a new series of attacks starting a few weeks ago. At this point its individual Ukrainian soldiers and small groups (2 to 3 guys) just trying to save themselves and walk further west to try consolidate their lines, but obviously many aren't so lucky and either get picked off by drones or end up stuck and killed or captured when the Russian assault groups come knocking.

The area east of the Zherebets River will almost certainly fall under Russian control within the next 2 to 3 weeks. Luckily for Ukraine this collapse can and will be stabilised, as the forest density prevents larger Russian movements, with numerous fortifications and areas they will have to clear out one by one before moving on. Ukraine will likely use this time to prepare for the defence of Yampil, which sits on the other side of the Zherebets River within the forest.

On the Toretsk front, starting on the north side, Russian troops began to make attacks towards Oleksandro-Shultyne starting 4 days ago, moving up the treelines from Dyliivka and taking over the farm and houses on the south side of the village. The issue for them now is that they have to cross the Naumykha River to get to the bulk of the settlement, which involves moving over open ground and trying to establish themselves in the southern buildings. The other option is crossing the river in adjacent Bila Hora, but targeting the eastern houses.

To the southwest, following their motorised attack into Katerynivka last week, Russian troops were confirmed to have at least secured a foothold on the western side of the village. Fighting is ongoing over the settlement, with most of Katerynivka in the greyzone.

Moving over to the east side of the Pokrovsk front, following on from weeks of DRG activity on the northeast side of this area, Russian infantry groups have begun to push through in larger numbers to the north, capturing a number of fields and treelines east of Nove Shakhove and Ivanivka. Whilst DRG movement has been reported much further afield than this advance (specifically talking about Day 1263), Suriyak is only showing the parts that can absolutely be confirmed.

Over to the opposite side of the Pokrovsk front, in the city itself, Russian units expanded their control of the southern and southwestern sides, capturing the remainder of Leontovychi and Troyanda (confirming full control of the villages), as well as moving up further through the southern suburbs and streets west of the park. Russian DRG elements have been operating much deeper into Pokrovsk than shown here, but this is the extent of firm Russian control that can be confirmed, as the situation deeper into the city is unclear due to a complete lack of information from either side (aside from some vague statements).

So whilst the Russians almost certainly control a larger portion of Pokrovsk than this, it can’t be confirmed and thus Suriyak is playing it safe with the map updates.

Over to the Velyka Novosilka front, where Russian troops from Voskresenka (or it’s surroundings) have pushed west towards Sicheneve, beginning the assault on the village. Russia has been working on Ukrainian troops and defences here for some time, with some sources even claiming they had already captured it, but this was pre-emptive.

A little to the south, another set of Russian infantry groups continue to operate around Shevchenko and Vilne Pole, gradually clearing out the treelines and fields west of the villages as they make their way towards Komyshuvakha. It will still take them some time to reach the village at this pace, however they do not seem to be in much of a rush as like with all other settlements on this front they prefer to spend weeks bombarding and droning these areas before trying to move in.

Heading back to the Oskil River front, this time further northwest where Russia has begun the assault on Shandryholove. After securing more of the fields and treelines nearby (mentioned last post) their assault groups made a direct push on the small town, securing a foothold on the north side as they try push deeper into the settlement.

Whilst this was occurring, the Russian assault group that entered adjacent Serednje has made slightly more progress, capturing some more houses on the north side of the village as they work their way south. Thus Russia aims to try capture both Serednje and Shandryholove in the same push, providing them a good forward base to either cross the Nitrius River and head northwest, or to continue on south to try gradually cut off Lyman.

Following on from picture 2, we’ll start on the east side and work our way west. North of the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway, a couple of Russian infantry groups have been working on expanding their control of the area, taking over several fields, treelines and fortifications north of Yablunivka and east of Rusyn Yar. With the latter, fighting still continues in the village itself, with Ukraine holding strong positions on the north side.

Slightly west of this, Russian assault groups have continued to press out of Poltavka, capturing most of the ajacent forest area as well as a number of fields and treelines. These forces are trying to make their way north along the Poltavka River, which would put them within striking distance of Sofivka.

To the northwest was the main event everyone has been talking about, where Russian DRGs and infantry groups rapidly moved north from the area around Mayak and Nykanorivka, rapidly spreading out and infiltrating deep into Ukrainian lines. Now to be clear, despite some sensationalist claims of a sudden, huge Russian breakout, the events in this area have been going on for 3 to 4 weeks at this point, which I discussed back when it was first reported. Essentially, after finding a gap in Ukrainian lines, fording the Kazenyi Torets River and capturing Razine (back in early July), Russian forces were able to expand their foothold into a full-fledged crossing, despite the lack of bridges and vehicle access. It was then that they realised Ukrainian lines were weaker than usual to their north, with the bulk of Ukrainian forces on this front pinned fighting in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, whilst others to the northeast around Volodymyrivka (such as 157th Mechanised and 82nd Air Assault brigades) found themselves having to cover a wider and wider portion of the front. I did mention the possibility of something like this happening a few weeks ago, although this push was larger and further north than I theorised.

Russian command tested the waters at first with several DRGs, which reportedly made it out as far as Nove Shakhove and east of Vilne (3 weeks ago). It was likely then that they realised the opening and planned for their larger breakthrough. Over the span of a few weeks Russia gradually brought forward more DRGs, infantry groups and drone teams, whilst forward elements worked on mapping out safe routes to push through. After heavy bombardment and shelling, the DRGs headed out, pushing deep into Ukrainian lines and fanning out through the countryside. The first groups reportedly clashed with Ukrainian soldiers in Zolotyi Kolodyaz that first day, who were totally unprepared for the Russians to suddenly push 10 to 12 km north to attack the settlement. Other DRGs moved out west into Ivanivka, Nove Shakhove and Vilne at the same time, taking advantage of the lack of Ukrainian coverage to set themselves up in these areas.

Now Suriyak has only marked the capture of Chernyavskiy (small village) in this particular image, as these DRGs are not exerting ‘control’ over most of these areas but rather moving through them quickly as they push deeper into Ukrainian lines. The infantry and assault groups following behind the DRGs are the ones capturing and securing areas. This is also where we’ll leave off for the moment with this localised breakthrough.

To the southwest, Russian assaults around Rodynske continue, with one group managing to clear and capture more of Chervonyi Lyman (adjacent village). Heavy shelling and bombing of the town itself is ongoing, with Russian troops trying to move from the mine into the town.

Following on from picture 5, on the north side, Russia secured the fields and treelines along the Vovcha and Mokri Yaly River between Novokhatske and Yalta. Ukraine could always try to cross the river again here, as it is lightly defended by Russia, however for the moment their counterattacks are focused on the area southeast of Filiya. The same goes for the Russians, as whilst they could also cross the river here they already have access to this area to the east, so no need to try cross here unless they want to sneak behind Filiya (possible).

To the southwest, another small advance by the Russian infantry near Vilne Pole, capturing some fields and a treeline.

Heading up to Kupyansk, heavy clashes continue on the west side of the town, with Russia struggling to make much progress. They were able to push slightly deeper into the settlement on the northwest side, getting close to one of the railway stations, but are still mostly stuck on the outer rim of Kupyansk.

Moving onto the north side of the Oskil River front, after a few weeks of positional battles Russian troops took full control of Zelenyi Hai, as well as the fields and treelines to the east of it. Ukrainian troops were forced to withdraw to some of the fortifications south and west of the village, where they will hold from next.

Moving south on the same front, following the loss of most positions in Torske last week, Ukrainian troops were finally forced out of the centre and southern side of the town, with Russia securing the area. Whilst Ukraine could try mount a counterattack, with the ongoing localised collapse in the Serebryansky forest and lack of reinforcements, it is highly unlikely they will be able to push back into Torske enough to change the tide of the battle.

I will note that despite Russian claims Torske hasn’t been fully captured yet, as they have not cleared out the last few houses on the north side and the fish farm. Ukraine has stubbornly held this area for months now, which severely hampered Russian efforts to attack Torske from the north. Still, with Russian troops already in Zarichne Ukraine will find it hard to hold the fish farm, so Torske will eventually be fully controlled by Russia.

Down to the Chasiv Yar front, after 2 weeks of clashes Russian assault groups were, somewhat surprisingly, able to clear and capture Predtechyne as well as the dense trench networks to the north of it. I say somewhat surprisingly as Predtechyne is in a pretty terrible position, being a gully on the side of the ridge that Chasiv Yar sits on. Ukraine had had severe issues with trying to counterattack up the hill from Kostyantynivka to Stupochky once Russia took the latter and failed despite many attempts, but Russia faced similar problems moving down the hill into the relatively open ground of Predtechyne (few buildings and treelines, mostly destroyed).

Now Russia capturing Predtechyne relates to something I will mention further down in the post, but as for immediate affects it has created a smaller pocket to the southeast. Whilst Russia will struggle to close this pocket from the opening (due to drones making movement through Predtechyne or Bila Hora difficult), they can still restrict Ukrainian supplies and force a withdrawal (less than 100 soldiers in that area), before clearing it from the east near the canal.

Whilst Suriyak highlights Russia is technically only 2.5km from Kostyantynivka, it is extremely unlikely they will make an assault on the city now as the minefields and open ground will be almost impossible to cross, plus right on the edge of the settlement there are many fortifications they would have to breach before securing a foothold in the buildings. This might come later if Russia can improve their positions to the south and secure better supply routes.

Following on from picture 7, the localised Russian breakthrough continued, with their DRGs pushing further out to the northwest (towards the Dobropillya-Kramatorsk highway) and northeast (towards Hruzke), whilst infantry/assault groups followed behind to fill in the gaps and secure areas.

Because Russian sources have gone silent on this area (similar to what they are doing with Pokrovsk), only vaguely acknowledging that something is happening, and Ukrainian sources are all over the place with reports and claims (some saying DRGs significantly further ahead than shown here, others that no breakthrough occurred), it is impossible to tell what is actually happening. Thus, Suriyak has elected to go with only marking what Ukrainian sources (such as Deepstate) are willing to admit, as confirming control of everything else won’t be possible with the information blackout. Eventually the situation will stabilise and more will be released, but Suriyak’s updates likely won’t show the full changes until then.

From other reports/claims released around this time, the Russians had either been assaulting Zolotyi Kolodyaz or capturing most of it already, Kucheriv Yar (in between the 2 ‘ears’) was being cleared, and Russian forward DRGs had reached the highway and were operating around Dobropillya (but no confirmation on how close). There are other things that have been claimed and reported, but it is simply too messy to determine what is true.

To the southwest, Russian forces north of the cities have not been idle, with some DRGs and forward assault groups crossing over the railway and pushing northwest of Rodynske. Like with the other advances on this front, these groups are trying to take advantage of Ukrainian forces being pinned (fighting in Rodynske) to flank/bypass them. For now this is only a smaller movement, but if not halted they could either cut off Rodynske or head even further west towards the last supply road for Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad.

Finally, moving back northeast, Russian infantry made another minor advance east of Rusyn Yar, taking over a field and some treelines.

Following on from the previous picture, Russian infantry groups have been moving into space created by the DRGs and are now securing and entrenching themselves in several areas. The greyzone has been significantly expanded as Russian DRGs have moved in or around Rubizhne, Vilne, Nove Shakhove and Ivanivka. As for Zolotyi Kolodyaz, it’s a mess with some sources claiming it is Russian controlled whilst others say that Russia never managed to entrench there (only DRGs passing through).

To the south, the centre of the spearhead was expanded, with Russia taking control over the remainder on Nykanorivka and adjacent forest area (middle left), whilst seizing more fields and treelines near Shakhove (middle right). Nearby, a Russian assault group entered Volodymyrivka, as they begin their second attempt to take the village.

It is also this point where the frontline in this area was stabilised by Ukraine. Over the past 1 to 2 weeks a number of Ukrainian units from other front lines were rapidly redeployed to stabilise the situation and counterattack to prevent a collapse on the Pokrovsk front. Ukraine redeployed the 1st Assault Battalion, 12th Azov Brigade, part of the 92nd assault brigade, 93rd Mechanised Brigade, 4th Rubizh Brigade and 25th Assault Battalion to the west, north and south of this breakthrough. These units immediately set out to hunt down any remaining DRGs around Dobropillya and Bilozerske (were only ever a couple) and began counterattacking across the area. There are also possibly some other smaller units that were brought in, but that has not been confirmed yet.

Such a large redeployment of forces will make a Russian exploitation of this breakthrough almost impossible and I would be surprised if the Russians managed to hold their positions in the northern half of the spearhead. The initial push occurred despite the lack of supplies and vehicles due to an absence of Ukrainian infantry and drone crews to hold the area. Now that so many forces have arrived, including multiple ‘elite’ brigades, this area is far more secured and the Russians in a much worse position.

This has come at a cost for Ukraine, as the areas they pulled these units from have suffered. Azov was withdrawn from Schcherbynivka, which was already struggling but fell rapidly starting a few weeks ago. The 93rd Mechanised Brigade was fighting in Predtechyne up until last week but as shown in picture 12 Russian troops managed to quickly capture it as the brigade was forced away. The 92nd assault brigade was in northern Kharkiv (around Kupyansk), which is also having issues, although only part of the brigade was redeployed to the Pokrovsk front. The other units were all either in the area or nearby, but their redeployment may also have consequences. Thus whilst Ukraine has effectively stabilised the situation, it has come at the cost of other fronts which could deteriorate even further if those units are not sent back soon. I’ll also note that with such a large redeployment of forces inevitably many get spotted and hit (such as this), but it is unlikely to stop the Ukrainians from counterattacking.

To the southwest, the Russian push west of the railway has expanded, with their troops taking physical control of the area (treelines and fields), as well as some forward DRGs reportedly operating near Shevchenko. Whilst the main road between Dobropillya and Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad has now been cut, it lost its viability a couple of weeks ago when fighting began around Rodyske with it being too close to Russian lines. Still, establishing physical control will ensure no risky moves are made by the Ukrainians and will help them flank Rodynske.

Speaking of, on the east side of the town, Russia secured the remainder of the mine complex, slag heap and more of Chervonyi Lyman, with the first assault groups establishing a small foothold in the eastern houses. Ukraine is trying to drive them out, but with the mine nearby and the town being attacked from multiple sides they are being overwhelmed. I’ve mentioned this before, but the capture of Rodynske will be key for Russia to truly cut Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad off, as it can act as a strong forward base for further offensive operations north of the city.

A little to the southeast, another set of Russian assaults groups has begun their assault on the mine east of Myrnohrad, moving up the treelines from Novoekonomichne. They have secured a foothold and are clashing with the Ukrainians are they try to capture the entire mine complex.

Following on from picture 4, there was another small expansion of Russian control west of the city, with their troops clearing a few treelines near Leontovychi. This may indicate they intend to try push north from here to try enter the western suburbs, bypassing the centre of the town.

To the west, Russia renewed its attacks in Udachne, with their troops reaching and setting themselves up in the train station (and surrounds). Ukraine is trying to bomb them out, but this is the furthest into Udachne the Russians have made it, and with heavy clashes occurring all over this front they may finally have found the chance to break the deadlock (neither side could clear the other out).

Following on from picture 6, Russia has made some more gains in a few areas. Going anti-clockwise, Russian assault groups slightly improved their positions in Ridkodub, retaking most of the southern street of the village. It is still a constant back and forth here as I’ve mentioned before, so the battle will continue for a while longer.

To the southwest, Russian assault groups continued their attacks in Serednje and Shandryholove, capturing more houses in the former, whilst they seized the outer warehouses of the latter. Clashes are continuing in both settlements.

To the southeast, fighting is ongoing for the last small section of Kolodyazi, but whilst this is occurring another Russian group has been working on clearing the treelines and fields west of the village, capturing a few. They are primarily laying the ground for the further push south, whilst the fighting in Kolodyazi wraps up.

Following on from picture 11, after a week of clashes Russian troops were confirmed to have established a small foothold in Zarichne along the river. Ukraine is trying to bomb them out, but has so far been unable to dislodge them from the town.

Back over to the Chasiv Yar front, some Russian infantry made a minor advance northwest of the town, taking over part of a fields and some treelines to the south of Maiske. They have not made an attempt on Maiske yet, but may be angling for a push towards Virolyubivka instead.

Following on from picture 14, Ukrainian counterattacks continue for the third day around Russia’s breakthrough, as they attempt to resecure Zolotyi Kolodyaz (unclear if Russia ever truly captured it). Russia did reportedly expand their spearhead by capturing more fields, treelines and the quarries south of Kucheriv Yar, but the lack of information about that village, as well as Nove Shakhove, Vilne and Rubizhne makes it difficult to tell exactly where the frontline sits and whether Russia actually captured these areas. Ukraine continues to pour in reinforcements, who had stabilised the situation (as mentioned earlier), but whether they can push Russia all the way back to their starting positions will depend on how well dug in the Russians are and how many assault groups managed to make it up to the area around Kucheriv Yar.

To the southeast, Russian assault groups continued the push north of Poltavka, further expanding control of the fields, treelines and forest area along the Poltavka River. If they can continue making their way north whilst Ukraine is focused on eliminating the breakthrough to the west, they could cut off or at least pressure the grouping in Shakhove an Sofiivka.

Much further southeast, Russian assault groups slightly expanded their control over southern Katerynivka, but clashes are ongoing.

Following on from picture 15, Russian assault groups managed to clear and capture the southern half of the Udachne. Their control is fragile and Ukraine continues to try bomb these troops out, but the Russians are working on moving into the northern half of the settlement.