RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1288 to 1291 of the War - Suriyakmaps

We begin on the northern front, to the west of Vovchansk. Over the past few days Russian troops have become more active in the forest, moving south from Hatyshche and clearing out more of the forest. The level of activity is still pretty low, but the Russians are almost certainly trying to see if they can reach Synelnykove to pressure Ukrainian positions from the southwest, as advancing within Vovchansk is almost impossible.

Moving down to the Oskil River front, following on from the previous post, Russian assault groups continue to take advantage of weak/thin Ukrainian lines to push further south, taking over multiple fields and treelines northeast and northwest of Stavky (bottom blue dot).

There is a thin defence line running to the north of Stavky (1st layer of Defence for Lyman), but it is rather weak with incredibly few trench networks and only a ditch (rather than layers of barbed wire and dragon teeth). Russian forces will be looking to close in on Stavky from the east and west sides as there are no treelines to use as cover from the north.

Swinging back up north to the Kupyansk front, following on from the restart of operations near the border (last post), Russian troops also crossed the road north of Krasne Pershe and cleared out a few small forest areas. There are some treelines from this advance that lead into Novovasylivka, which could be used as cover for an assault on the village, but for the moment the few Russian soldiers in this area are staying in the forests.

Further south on the same front, Russia made a minor advance northwest of Tabaivka, clearing out some treelines. There has been minimal activity on this particular part of the front for a long time, so I don’t expect much else to develop from (possibly just taking another field or two).

Following on from picture 2, the Russian assault groups that cut Shandryholove off from supplies a few days prior have continued working their way south, taking over a few more treelines north of Derylove. They haven’t made their way into the village yet, but if Russia can take Derylove they will further split up Ukrainian forces operating on the Lyman front by cutting between the 2 areas.

Down to the Siversk front, Ukraine has continued counterattacking in Serebryanka, with their assault groups managing to establish a foothold on the northwest side over the past four days. Clashes are now occurring in the centre of the town, as Russia tries to hold the settlement.

Heading on over to the Pokrovsk front, on the west side, over the past week Ukraine regrouped its forces and launched another attack into Nykanorivka, establishing a foothold on the west side of the village. They have also been sending DRGs through the Russian lines to try cause chaos and disrupt the movement of supplies to the salient.

To the east on the opposite side of the salient, over the same time period Ukraine counterattacked in Volodymyrivka and were able to recapture the southern part of the settlement. If they continue pushing west through Pankivka there is a real risk that the Russian salient could be cut off and their forces encircled.

Down south clashes continued in Novoekonomichne, with neither side able to properly secure the town to prevent the other moving back in.

On the Velyka Novosilka front, over the past week and a bit Russian assault groups have made significant gains to the east and south of the Vovcha River. Continuing to build on their previous successes around Komyshuvakha and Voskresenka, the Russian 36th and 57th Motor Rifle Brigades launched a series of attacks across a wide area. On the northern side, Russian troops recaptured Oleksandrohrad after forcing the Ukrainian counterattackers to withdraw, before moving up the gulley north of Sichneve to assault and capture Novoselivka (video 1, video 2).

Simultaneously, a different set of assault group pushed along the south side of the Vorona River (really a stream), moving into Vorone. Ukraine did counterattack with Bradleys against the first of these groups, but were unable to drive them out of the village. More reinforcements arrived and are working to clear the remainder of the settlement.

These 2 advances meant the small Ukrainian garrison in Sichneve (or rather what was left of it) were at risk of being encircled, so withdrew through the treelines to the west prior to Russia fully securing Novoselivka. This allowed Russian troops to move into and capture Sichneve easily.

South of Vorone, a different set of Russian assault groups from Komyshuvakha expanded the buffer around the village and are working their way towards Ternove. The second layer of the Zaporizhia Defence line sits in this area, so pushing directly to Ternove is rather difficult. Instead they will likely try skirt around to the north of the settlement (where they are already past the line) before pushing south to assault the village.

The most concerning aspect of the Russian advances on this front is that fact that they are now set up right next to the forest across the Vovcha River. The river is not particularly wide or fast flowing here, so whilst vehicles won’t be able to cross it infantry can still ford and set themselves up on the other side. If Russian assault groups are able to cross from Novoselivka and Oleksandrohrad, and set themselves up in the forest they will be able to assault Velykomykhailivka. The capture of the forest would also provide Russia with an excellent staging point (tons of cover) for future operations on the opposite side of the river, hence why it is so important Ukraine stop them from pushing on.

To the northeast there has been no notable change in control over the area between Andriivka-Klevtsove and Tolstoi, with neither side able to properly secure any positions.

Back up to Kupyansk, this time within the town itself where Russia continues to make slow progress, capturing some streets and warehouses. Ukraine has stopped their counterattacks (for now) and is trying to halt the Russians with drones, with varying success.

Following on from picture 5, the same Russian groups made more progress around Stavky, capturing several more treelines north and northwest of the settlement. Some of these groups may divert west to attack Derylove, depending on whether Russian command wants to prioritise cutting the front in 2 or seizing Stavky first (both are being worked on).

Onto the Novopavlivka front, starting on the north side, Russian troops recaptured the fields and treelines just over the Oblast border from Horikhove, following the Ukrainian counterattacks a few weeks back. They have still not made any concerted effort to reach Novopavlivka itself (insufficient forces), but they are slowly improving their positions.

A little to the south, the same Russian unit also cleared out some of the fields east of Dachne, as they work on the area around the village.

Out west, following on from picture 8, Russian assault groups were finally confirmed to recaptured part of the previously area west of Tolstoi, including half of Zelenyi Hai. Control of this portion of the frontline is rather messy, with both sides sneaking soldiers back and forth through the tree plantations and into the settlements along the river. Some sources claim Russia controls Andriivka-Klevtsove whilst others say both sides are present in the basements, so we’ll have to wait a bit for further confirmation of what exactly the frontline looks like in this area.

Heading up to the Sumy front, over the past 2 weeks Russian assault groups managed to clear and capture the last houses of Yunakivka, confirming full control of the town after months of fighting. Ukraine will likely try to counterattack and break back in, so it will be up to Russia to thwart these attempts and expand their control of the surrounding area to properly secure the town.

Following on from picture 10, on the northwest side, the Russian assault group south of Shandryholove has pushed further down the road, taking up positions in the houses between Novoselivka and Derylove. Ukraine carried out a raid on these buildings with tanks, trying to destroy the Russian troops, but with minimal aftermath footage and no soldiers on the ground (tanks left quickly) it is hard to say whether Ukraine regained control of these buildings and killed or forced the Russians to retreat.

To the east, other Russian groups moving south from Kolodyazi expanded their control of the treelines northeast of Stavky, heading east to either cut of Myrne (blue dot above k) or to reach Zarichne (under k). Hitting Zarichne from the north whilst Russian troops are currently assaulting the centre from the east would certainly speed up the battle, but it will delay how quickly Russia can assault Stavky.

To the southeast, over the past two weeks Russian forces have continued working on clearing the Serebryansky forest, managing to clear and seize another chunk along its western edge (next to the Zherebets River), as well as moving west along the Siverskyi Donets River north of Serebryanka. As I’ve mentioned a couple of times before, Ukraine was unable to stabilise the localised collapse here and has been cleared out from the numerous dense defences in the majority of the forest and will likely lose their last positions in the coming days. According to some sources Russia has already begun fighting around the Ostrich farm (slightly west of the advance under the m), likely in preparation for an assault on Yampil.

Before anyone asks, the Ostrich farm (more of a petting zoo) was evacuated and abandoned long ago, so there are no animals present that could be hurt by the fighting.

Back down to the Siversk front, on the southern side, Russian troops continued to move through Pereizne, capturing the last buildings of the settlement (was mostly empty). At this point they can try move north to assault Zvanivka, but without properly securing Pereizne and dealing with the fields to the east they are at risk of being driven right back to their starting point, so will need to be careful.

Following on from picture 8, after a few more days of clashes Russian assault groups managed to not only secure Vorone, but move up through the Khoroshe darms and enter Sosnivka, where clashes are taking place. Capturing Sosnivka would give Russia a direct route for attacking the town of Velyomykhailivka as well as access to a larger area of fields west and south that they can use to flank multiple other Ukrainian settlements/strongpoints.