RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1309 to 1312 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Russian Forces Advance: 4.77 km²

Top Left Advance = 0.87km2, Upper Left Advance = 0.89km2, Middle Advance = 3.01km2

Today we’re starting off on the Lyman front, where Russia has continued to make stead progress. On the north side, the Ukrainian attempt to infiltrate Kolodyazi failed (see this post), with Russia recapturing the treelines in that area (likely occurred a while back). They are currently working on trying to get into Stavky (above the u), however the Ukrainian defence line in this area and the lack of treelines is making it difficult for Russia.

To the southeast in Zarichne, Russian assault groups have gradually cleared the entire central and northern part of the town over the past two weeks, leaving the south side as the only area still under Ukrainian control. It will likely take a while longer for Russia to clear this area out and consolidate.

Russian Forces Advance: 3.21 km²

Advance = 3.21km2

A little south on the Siversk front, Russian forces managed to reestablish control over the southern side of Serebryanka following the Ukrainian counterattacks in September.

West of this, Russian troops were spotted in Rudnik, a satellite suburb of Siversk that is 5km away from the town. Now whilst Suriyak has shown the Russians as approaching from the south, I believe this is incorrect. It is far more likely for them to have come from the east (Serebryanka) or from over the Siverskyi Donets River to the north, rather than trying to cross the large amount of open ground through an area they do not control.

Russian Forces Advance: 7.02 km²

Top Advance = 0.34km2, Top Right Advance = 1.33km2, Bottom Left Advance = 5.35km2

Moving onto the Kostyantynivka front, on the north side, Russian presence in the dachas of the city is growing, with more streets coming under their control. The dachas are relatively small buildings, so there is a limit to the cover they provide and how many troops can use them, but if they can continue to clear and move closer to the city Ukraine will have to respond or risk Russia breaking in.

To the southwest, Russia has taken control of a large area of fields and treelines west of Katerynivka, up to one of the long ditches that runs between Kleban-Byk and Oleksandro-Kalynove (hence the straight line). Ukrainian presence in this area has been minimal for many months now, but Russia beginning to move into this area would indicate they may finally be trying to tackle the pocket south of the reservoir head-on.

Russian Forces Advance: 3.14 km²

Top Left Advance = 2.97km2, Far Left Advance = 0.17km2

Over on the Pokrovsk front, despite the Russians in the salient having restricted supplies and reinforcements, they are still managing to carry out counterattacks, pushing back into the quarry northwest of Shakhove, as well as pushing back towards Dorozhnje (west side, below the @).

Ukraine for their part have continued their assaults in Nykanorivka, which have been ongoing for several weeks now, reportedly managing to push the Russians out of the village. However, clashes are ongoing in this area and the Russians will certainly try break back in to stop the salient being cut off if Ukraine pushes out of Nykanorivka.

Russian Forces Advance: 12.63 km²

Advance = 12.63km2

Heading to the Hulyaipole front, Russian assault groups have begun pressing towards Novohryhorivka, taking over a large area of fields and treelines east and northeast of the village. Same as with the other settlements in this area, the village is unlikely to last long once assaults begin and Ukraine will be forced back to the Yanchur River line (southwest).

Russian Forces Advance: 1.20 km²

Advance = 1.20km2

Context

Back to the Lyman front, after over a week of fighting, Russian assault groups have established a foothold in the town of Yampil and are currently trying to make their way deeper into the settlement.

Russian Forces Advance: 4.00 km²

Top Left Advance = 1.26km2, Lower Left Advance = 2.74km2

Back to the Hulyaipole front, this time a little further south where other Russian troops have made smaller advances east of Novovasylivske and Poltavka. These villages, like Novohryhorivka, are under increasing pressure from Russian forces as they are hit by drones, artillery and FABs in preparation for an eventual assault.

Russian Forces Advance: 1.23 km²

Advance = 1.23km2

Context

Shifting over to Kupyansk, Russian forces have reportedly made new advances in the town over the past week, capturing a number of streets on the other side of the railway and Kupyanka River (very small). There are claims of much greater Russian progress than this, however the information blackout makes it too difficult to determine what the actual frontline in the settlement looks like. Ukraine has been counterattacking around Kupyansk, but those too are unclear with no information about possible progress.

Russian Forces Advance: 4.82 km²

Advance = 4.82km2

Down on the Oskil River front, after a period of positional fighting Russian assault groups managed to recapture some of the treelines and trenches north of Borivska Andriiva, as well as capture a new trench network in the same area. As always with this area, don’t expect there to be much movement anytime soon, as its low priority for both sides and primarily positional fighting.

Russian Forces Advance: 1.44 km²

Advance = 1.44km2

Context

Further south on the Lyman front, Russian assault groups captured the remainder of Derylove, establishing control over the small village. It was always going to be difficult for Ukraine to hold due to its size, lack of defences and location, but it does open the way for Russia to push into the town of Drobysheve (some sources claim they already have).

Meanwhile fighting continues in neighbouring Novoselivka, which Russia will need to capture to secure its flank in this area and gain access to the large forest next to the Oskil and Siverskyi Donets rivers.

Russian Forces

No Advance

Back to the Pokrovsk front, this time east of Myrnohrad where both sides have been trying to attack and counterattack outside the city. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has solid control of the area, with both present in smaller numbers throughout the fields, treelines and buildings.

Russian Forces Advance: 8.61 km²

Very Top Advance = 0.98km2, Top Advance = 2.56km2, Upper Left Advance = 2.98km2, Bottom Advance = 2.09km2

Following on from picture 7, on the north side, Russian assault groups made multiple smaller advances all around Kalynivske, capturing several fields and treelines northeast, north and south of the village.

To the south, Russia made another smaller advance near Poltavka, now only 1km from the eastern outskirts. I am not sure Russia will attack Poltavka from this side right now, as they have also been working on reaching Okhotnyche (to flank Poltavka from the north) and are also shelling the southern side, possibly in preparation for a push from Malynivka (bottom red dot).

Russian Forces Advance: 3.44 km²

Advance = 3.44km2

Following on from picture 2, over the past three days Russian troops recaptured the remainder of Serebryanka, putting an end to weeks of Ukrainian counterattacks. They have also been smaller infantry groups and DRGs out into the fields, old mine and Rudnik, as they try to capture new positions.

If Russia can secure the old mine and the hill above Siversk (which has a number of fortifications for cover), they will be able to pressure the town from the north and even possibly begin assault operations. The alternative is Russia captures that area and heads northwest, aiming to capture Dronivka and circumvent Siversk (in order to cut it off).

Russian Forces Advance: 5.12 km²

Middle Left Advance = 3.23km2, Bottom Left Advance = 1.89km2

Context

Following on from picture 4, on the southwest side, Russian forces recaptured the treelines next to Zatyshok, following an unsuccessful Ukrainian attack.

Slightly north, Russian assault groups pushed back into Nykanorivka once again, where fighting is ongoing. There were also reports that Russia had captured Dorozhnje (under the @), although I do not believe they have consolidated there and it is more likely to be in the greyzone. The Ukrainian attacks launched on the west side of the salient over the past month have primarily come from Bilytske, with Ukrainian assault groups moving from the town to attack Sukhetske, Zatyshok, Nykanorivka and Boikivka. If Russia is able to properly secure Dorozhnje and retake Nykanorivka, they will be able to push Ukraine back to the railway line and prevent the salient from being cut off.

Russian Forces Advance: 2.37 km²

Advance = 2.37km2

Following on from picture 11, on the northeast side, Russian assault groups have reportedly recaptured most of southern Novoekonomichne, as well as moving back into the ventilation shaft complex of the Kapitalna mine, where Ukraine is trying to bomb them out.

On the opposite side of the cities, Russia has also begun to push out from Kotlyne for the first time in many months, taking up positions in the ventilation shaft of a different mine.

Russian Forces Advance: 2.62 km²

Advance = 2.62km2

Following on from picture 12, Russian forces advanced northwest of Berezove and captured Stepove (not really a village, only a couple of houses). These groups will be looking to punch west along the treelines and Ukrainian fortifications to reach Verbove, if they haven’t done so already.

Ukrainian Forces Advance: 2.08 km²

Middle Left Advance = 2.08km2

From Picture 4