RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1321 to 1323 of the War - Suriyakmaps

For today’s post we’re starting off in Vovchansk, where over the past 3 days Russia has continued to make gradual progress in expanding their control of the west side of the town. They have pushed slightly further south along the railway, as well as clearing out a number of houses to the west of it.

Heading over to Kupyansk, following on from their progress last post, Russian assault groups have taken control of the areas they broke into previously, capturing most of the town centre as well as a number of houses on the southern side. As many have pointed out this puts a lot of the Ukrainian garrison at risk of encirclement, with reports suggesting low hundreds of soldiers are in the pocket (primarily the larger apartment buildings and industrial facilities).

Personally, I do not believe the encirclement will happen, or at least not before most of these troops are able to evacuate. The lines in Kupyansk are very porous, with gaps in control of the areas each side occupies, so Russia will struggle to truly lock down the area and encircle them before they either break the Russian pincer on the west side (whether from counterattack in or outside the town) or these troops leave in small groups at a time.

Down on the Lyman front, starting on the northwest side, clashes continue in and around Novoselivka, with the Russians taking over part of the forest area north of the small town.

To the east, after a few weeks of probing and shelling the Russians have managed to break through the thin defence line north of Stavky, taking over the trench network on the outskirts of the village. Russia will be looking to use this as a staging point for assaults into Stavky, although will have difficulty due to how little cover there is in this area (few treelines, all of them with minimal trees).

To the southeast, Russian troops also captured one of the trenches next to Zarichne, putting them in a position to encircle any remaining Ukrainian troops in and around Myrne (blue dot above a). I have phrased it this way as depending on which source you refer to they either claim there are a handful of soldiers left hunkered down in some dugouts or the area is already under Russian control.

Onto the Pokrovsk front, in the salient, Russian troops reportedly recaptured the rest of Nykanorivka (west advance) and Pankivka (east advance) over the past few days. Repeating what I’ve said many times before, I believe Nykanorivka is not solidly held by either side with constant changes in who is where, however Pankivka only had a few houses left and their capture lines up with other reports.

There was also a small correction made north of Rusyn Yar, with Ukraine shown to still be in control of the treeline south of the quarry. This would have happened weeks or even a month back when some counterattacks occurred and stopped Russian progress in that area.

Moving onto the city of Pokrovsk itself, Russian assault groups continue to make progress in expanding their control, reportedly taking over more of the apartment buildings in the Shakhtarskyi district and also moving deeper into the western suburbs. With the latter, I do not know if the control shown is accurate, but Russia is certainly active there and trying to reach the railway area.

West of the city, a separate Russian force has also managed to clear out and capture the treelines and part of the railway. If Russia can secure the entire railway line from Kotlyne (off map west) into Pokrovsk, they will gain access to the industrial area next to the E50 highway.

Down on the Hulyaipole front, Russia continues to make progress across the area in their push west. Going north to south, fighting has begun in Novohryhorivka as the Russian assault begins.

South of that, Russian infantry expanded their control of the fields and treelines east of Novovasylivske, heading for the village.

South again, the same occurred for a different Russian group, with this one heading for the village of Okhotnyche.

Going south one last time, Russian assault groups in Poltavka managed to expand their foothold, capturing more houses on the eastern side of the small town. Ukraine has all but been forced to withdraw over the Yanchur River into western Poltavka, where they are holding the line.

Moving up to the Sumy front, over the past 2 weeks Ukraine has been working on reaching Oleksiivka, sending in assault groups to the nearby treelines and managing to enter the southern houses.

Far north of Kupyansk, as part of positional battles Russia has reactivated the front next to Kamyanka, moving west from the small village into the adjacent treelines and trenches. This area has always been rather weird as it has a lot of dense fortifications dating back to the first year of the war, but almost none of them are manned and their designs are quite outdated.

Onto the Siversk front, on the north side, Russia made a minor advance in the treelines southeast of the town, clearing some dugouts.

The other advance shown southwest of there I covered in my previous post, being the Russian capture of some houses in the tiny village of Kuzmynivka.

Down to Kostyantynivka front, after weeks of fighting Russians forces reportedly cleared and captured Kleban-Byk, as well as the adjacent fields and trench network. This all but cuts off the Ukrainian forces south of the large reservoir, although there would be incredibly few left at this point as they have been isolated for months now and their numbers dwindled over time. I will note that some sources say Kleban-Byk is not entirely cleared and I am a little sceptical of its capture given how suddenly it was reported, but Ukraine was always going to struggle to hold it given the circumstances.

Northeast of this, Russia has increased their pressure on the settlements around the railway since the beginning of October, capturing some houses in Nelipivka (red dot east of railway), whilst also clearing out the fields and treelines out east. This culminated in Russia capturing the trench networks next to Ivanopillya, which they may use to try assault the settlement.

Out west, Suriyak has shown Russia to have captured the remaining houses in Yablunivka, also as I’ve mentioned before sources differ on whether this has always been under Russian control or was just in the greyzone (as Suriyak claimed until now).

Following on from picture 4, Russian assault groups pushed into Volodymyrivka in a small mechanised group, managing to drop off troops and establish a foothold in the village. The weather has worsened recently, so the Russians are trying to take advantage of it, hence the usage of vehicles where none were previously seen.

Over on the Pokrovske front, both Russia and Ukraine made some deep pushes over the past couple of days. On the northeast side, a Ukrainian assault group managed to break back into Sichneve, as part of their ongoing counterattacks in the area. I don’t believe they came from the west as Suriyak shows here, as it is more likely came from over the river to the north and pushed straight south.

To the southwest, after expanding their control of the treelines and trench networks north of Verbove, Russian assault groups made a sudden push north managing to reach the outskirts of Oleksiivka, where they are trying to establish a foothold.

Following on from 6, Russian pressure and assaults across the front forced Ukraine to abandon most of their positions east of the Yanchur River. Starting on the north side, the Russian assault on Novohryhorivka continued, with their troops rapidly taking over half of the village.

Immediately south of that, other groups captured a number of fields and treelines up to the Yanchur River, as well as the village of Novovasylivske. Russia can’t fully secure the settlement due to Ukrainian positions in the larger towns just over the river (Uspenivka and Novomykolaivka), but holding these buildings provides Russia a staging point from which they can try to cross the Yanchur and begin the assault.

Moving south again, the Russians captured the small village of Okhotnyche and the surrounding fields. It wasn’t really being contested by Ukraine, however the Yanchur River is quite thin in this area so they may try cross here to try cut off Poltavka from the north.

Speaking of, moving south once again, Russian assault groups captured the remainder of eastern Poltavka and the fields immediately south of that following the Ukrainian withdrawal. The situation is quite tense here as there are a number of areas where Russia may try to cross into the town, or even simply flanking it from the north and cutting it off.

Following on from 8, on the north side, Russian troops in the border area have cleared out some more of the treelines east of Odradne, possibly trying to head for the village of Bolohivka. As mentioned in previous posts, the Russian goal here is to isolate a small pocket up against the border by advancing from both the north and south.

To that end, Russia has also captured a small forest area southeast of Kolodyazne, slowly making their way north.

Back to the Kostyantynivka front, this time the east side in the areas around Chasiv Yar. To the north, since the beginning of October some Russian troops have been working on expanding their control of the fields west of the canal, aiming to pressure some of the villages in the area such as Maiske and Markove. The Russian MoD had previously claimed they captured both of these (months back), but even the most staunch Russian sources denied this.

Down south, Russia has once again become active in Predtechyne, trying to move deeper into the village. Adjacent to this (east), Russia reportedly cleared the last of the forest areas in the small pocket that formed here in September, allowing them to start levelling the front out towards Kostyantynivka.

Following on from picture 11, we have started to see some larger Russian gains across the salient area. Starting on the northwest side, Russian infantry groups have slightly expanded their control in and around Vilne, trying to recapture the village once again.

Over to the east, Russian assault groups and aviation are maintaining their pressure on the Ukrainian salient and Sofiivka, heavily bombing the area and managing to capture several fields and treelines to its east. Most of the supplies for the Ukrainian salient travel through Sofiivka, so it’s vital for them to hold it open if they wish to maintain pressure on the Russian salient.

Further south were the more shocking developments from this front, which seemingly came out of nowhere. Russian forces launched another mechanised assault on Volodymyrivka, this time much larger, managing to land a significant number of troops in the village who quickly fanned out and captured the settlement. This also came with the capture of the large area of fields and treelines to the south that Ukraine had been working on for months.

I was quite sceptical when I first read the reports and claims, but even Ukrainian sources have admitted the Russians have had a lot of success here, with Deepstate claiming the Russians dropped 50 to 75 infantry into the village with the largest mechanised attack this front (Pokrovsk) have seen in a long time. If the numbers are true it points to Russia not wanting to stop here but to also continue on north to assault Shakhove, which would allow them to secure their salient and bring in reinforcements and supplies much more easily. In my opinion the Russian regrouping on this front from a few weeks ago, combined with months of pressure on the Ukrainian salient and bad weather allowed them to be much more aggressive, catching the Ukrainians off guard.

Also to the southwest, Suriyak claims the Russians have re-entered Rodynske, although I have not seen any evidence of this and cannot comment.

Following on from picture 5, west of the city Russian assault groups have been working on reaching the coking coal mine over the past few weeks, finally managing to gain a foothold. Ukraine is working on trying to bomb them out, as the capture of the mine would allow Russia to start pushing deeper into the fields towards the E50 highway.

To the southwest, over the past few weeks Ukraine continued to bring in small numbers of infantry into Novomykolaivka, managing to force Russia to abandon the village and establishing control. These Ukrainian troops will be looking to punch southwest towards Muravka, where the small Russian garrison is now isolated (but not cut off).

Over on the Novopavlivka front, Russian forces have continued to chip away at Filiya over the past month, managing to finally capture the village and surrounding area after a lot of back and forth. They now have a couple of options on where to head to next, such as pushing straight north to Novopavlivka or crossing the Solena River to try take over the nearby forest area. However any advance will be difficult as any troops or supplies need to swim across the Vovcha River to reach this area (no roads or bridges yet).

Following on from picture 13, Russian assault group cleared the remainder of Novohryhorivka, capturing the village as well as then fields and treelines to the north of it (video 1, video 2, video 3). This opens the way for them to continue pushing west to the upper parts of the Yanchur River and some of the villages on their side of it (such as Krasnohirske, Pryvilne, and Pavlivka).

To the south, as with the fields south of eastern Poltavka, Russia has now captured the ones to the north of it now that Ukraine has pulled back behind the river. They may try to capture the farm west of this advance and then cross the Yanchur River in this area.