RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1328 to 1330 of the War - Suriyakmaps Maps & infographics

Same as last time, we’re starting off on the Sumy front. Ukraine are continuing to pressure Oleksiivka, sending in a number of small assault groups from the south who have expanded their control over the village.

Onto the Chasiv Yar front, as part of the slow positional battles in the area Russia crossed the canal in a new spot, trying to clear out some of the dugouts/trenches south of Novomarkove.

Down to the Pokrovsk front, Russian forces launched another large mechanised assault, this time heading to Shakhove (video 1, video 2). Whilst many vehicles were lost, at least some soldiers managed to dismount near the town and will try to establish a foothold (but are unlikely to be successful).

To the west, clashes are ongoing over Dorozhnje as Russia tries to break back into the village again (0:02 from this video to see what it looks like now).

A little to the south on the same front, Russia continues to pressure the area east of Myrnohrad, taking over the village of Kozatske and managing to enter the city (houses on eastern side). For now there is only minor Russian presence in this area, but if they are able to bring more forces in and capture the southern district of Myrnohrad they will be able to set up a forward base for the battle.

Over on the Novopavlivka front, positional battles along the border of Donetsk and Dnipro Oblasts have continued in the background since the beginning of the month, with small groups of infantry from both sides making advances along the treelines. None of these involve any determined push by either side, just vying for control of advantageous spots.

Up in Kupyansk, Russia has been working on clearing out the small pocket over the past week as the Ukrainian garrison pulled out, moving block by block (only small advance confirmed right now).

A little further south, other Russian assault groups have been working on the apartment blocks on the southern side of the town, one of the last solid defence points Ukraine has in Kupyansk

Following on from picture 3, the Russian troops dropped off during the mechanised attack managed to capture some of the fields and treelines outside Shakhove, but were unable to establish a foothold in the town.

Out west, Russia recaptured Dorozhnje during the latest assault, but have yet to secure the village. There is a good chance it will go back into the greyzone or be recaptured by Ukraine again, as has happened several times before.

Following on from picture 4, shortly after their capture of Kozatske, Russian troops also expanded their control over the neighbouring village of Balahan. There are still some dachas here but I am not sure whether they are considered part of Balahan or part of Myrnohrad city. If it is the latter, then all of Balahan has been captured by Russia, otherwise there are a few streets of dachas left for them to clear.

Following on from picture 5, as mentioned before, positional battles have been ongoing in this area for a while now, with Russia also taking control of the last fields and treelines east of the Oblast border in this lower area

Following on from picture 1, over another 2 days Ukrainian assault groups expanded their control Oleksiivka, now holding about half of the village. Whilst the Russians are shelling and droning them, they will likely lose control of the settlement within a few weeks if they do not counterattack or lock down the approaches to Oleksiivka.

Continuing on from their recent success in Vovchansk (see last post), Russian assault groups have wasted no time in moving into the southwestern side of the town, capturing several more streets. The Ukrainian defence of Vovchansk is not holding well despite these being relatively small attacks due to them simply being worn out and lacking infantry (to actually hold buildings and counterattack).

Out west, other Russian groups have started working on combing the forest next to the Siverskyi Donets River, likely heading for Prylipka and then further south (bypassing Synelnykove).

Back to Pokrvosk, this time south of the city where after a week of fighting Russian assaults groups captured the village of Novopavlivka. As I’ve said in a couple of previous posts, once Russia captured most of the Shakhtarksyi district (southern Pokrovsk) it was going to be extremely difficult for Ukraine to supply and rotate their troops in Novopavlivka, with them simply getting overwhelmed.

Russia now has another route to get assault groups into Pokrovsk (via the railway which runs next to Novopavlivka), increasing pressure on the city.

Moving over to the Pokrovske front, Russian assault groups cleared out the remaining buildings in Oleksiivka, establishing full control over the village. Other troops captured a large area of fields and treelines east of the settlement after Ukraine was forced to withdraw further north.

The question now becomes whether they head north and northeast to Orestopil, which would indicate Russia intends to assault the town of Velykomykhailivka, or do they ignore the Ukrainian units there and continue pushing west onto Novooleksandrivka.

Heading west to the Zaporizhia front, on the northwest side, positional battles continue in Prymorske and Stepnohirsk, with Russia managing to slightly expand its control amidst the constant back and forth (lots of small groups from both sides present).

To the southeast, Ukraine counterattacked to the southeast of Stepnohirsk, recapturing some treelines as they try to reach Kamyanske once again.

Out east, over the past 2 weeks Ukraine has been launching attacks in and around Shcherbaky and Mali Shcherbaky, as part of their efforts to push the frontline back (started a few months ago). Their assault groups were able to enter Mali Shcherbaky and take over the northern street, but their claims that they recaptured the entirety of both villages is false (only present on the northern edge of one). They are certainly trying to achieve this, but their statements and celebrations are premature given the loose control they have over this area.

Now to an area where have not spoken of in a long time, we’re on the Kherson front along the Dnieper River Delta. Whilst not spoken about often, sporadic fighting has continued on this front all year, with Russia gradually making progress in several areas over many months. To summarise, over a series of attacks and counterattacks Russian troops captured Velykyi, Bakaiskyi, Prorezhanskyi, Vasylkiv and Nestryha islands, as well as taking over more of Velyky Potyomkin Island (specifically the streets on the northeastern side) and pushing up to the Dnieper River on Alekseevski Island (opposite Prydniprovske).

Overall, these movements throughout the year have improved the Russian position in Kherson Oblast, providing them opportunities to infiltrate the opposite bank of the Dnieper River and possibly raid some settlements. I do not believe that Russia is interested in launching a large amphibious attack into Kherson city, nor any other town along the river. They simply do not have the forces available on this front to do so (it requires a ton of troops to be successful) and even with Ukraine occupied on other fronts the risk of failure is simply too great. Instead they will be looking to continue their harassment campaign and force Ukraine further back from the river, opening the way for DRGs to infiltrate these areas.

To that end, a couple of days ago one Russian group reportedly landed on Karantyny Island, which is connected to Kherson city. These soldiers were simply probing Ukrainian defences and positions in the area, before withdrawing back to their lines. I wrote a comment back in early August discussing some possible Russian aims in this particular area.

Following on from the previous picture, further up the Dnieper River Russian troops also captured Kozatskyi Island, opposite the town of Kozatske. This is another area they may try to harass with smaller raids and DRGs.

From Picture 5