RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1345 and 1346 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Kicking off today’s post we are on the Sumy front, where over the past week Ukraine has turned its attention to the western border area. Infantry groups moved from Kindrativka north and northeast to clear the fields and treelines around Kostyantynivka (not the city), before entering the village and recapturing the southern half. As with most border settlements it was lightly defended by Russia and will almost certainly be captured by Ukraine in the coming days, unless they decide to counterattack (somewhat unlikely).

Over in the Kharkiv border area, the Russian units operating there have made a minor advance on the northwest side, possibly thinking of attacking Ambarne.

To the south, in an area that has been quiet since early this year, Russian troops recaptured the village of Fyholivka. It is quite small and has sat between Russian positions in Dvorichna and Ukrainian fortifications further north, with no real control being exerted over it for some time. It remains to be seen if this is just opportunistic or the Russians intend to restart operations fully on this part of the front.

Down south in Kupyansk, at least one Russian assault group made a surprise move over the Oskil River, entering the first houses of the eastern half of the town. This crossing is quite dangerous due to how much open ground has to be covered and all the drones watching the area, but it seems like Russian command believe the time is right to start pressuring the other half of Kupyansk. For now its likely just one group, but others may follow if Russia is able to set up a foothold on the other side of the river.

Adjacent to this, other Russian forces continued to clear the western side of Kupyansk capturing several more streets and most of the highrise district. Forward groups were also able to push straight out into the very southern streets of the town and the adjacent forest areas, starting a move towards Ukraine’s supply routes over the Oskil River. It was also reported that some Russian troops had even managed to reach Sadove (bottom orange dot), but its unclear if they were able to establish themselves there.

Whilst western Kupyansk hasn’t been captured yet, it’s still a worrying trend for Ukraine as Russian forces are now moving to cut off the entire Kupyansk pocket. If Russia is also able to capture the eastern half of the town (via this crossing or a new push from the north) their supply issues will be resolved and any chance of stabilising the situation will be lost for Ukraine.

Over on the Lyman front, the Russian troops pushing west of Zarichne (mentioned last post) have now cleared most of that forest area, getting within 3km of the northern part of Lyman. The bigger issue for Ukraine is they are now close enough to interdict supplies to Stavky (under the i), which would force a retreat from the village lest they be cut off.

To the south, Russian troops reportedly made another advance within Yampil, although other sources contest this due to both sides having infantry scattered all over the village (i.e. greyzone, not control).

Moving down to the Siversk front, immediately south of the town, Russian assault groups have continued working their way up the railway line clearing fortifications and dugouts. They are now just 400m from the first buildings in Siversk, but I do not believe Russia will begin the assault just yet, preferring to better secure their supply routes and flanks.

To that end, to the south other Russian groups have cleared more of the small pocket between Zvanivka and Vyimka, taking over more fields and treelines.

Heading to the Kostyantynivka front, Russian pressure on the ridge east of the city has increased, with their troops recapturing Predtechyne and forcing Ukraine to withdraw the few infantry they had holding the pocket. Russia is working on clearing that area now and once that has been completed they can focus on securing a foothold in eastern Kostyantynivka.

To the south, another Russian unit has been working on the trenches along the railway southeast of the city over the past week, capturing a number of them and some treelines.

Southwest, Russian assault groups completed clearing the last streets of Pleshchiivka, although Ukraine is still present in neighbouring Ivanopillya and could easily try counterattack back into the village. Only once southern Ivanopillya is cleared can Russia truly secure Pleshchiivka.

Onto the Pokrovsk front, Ukrainian forces continued their aggressive attacks on the last remnants of the salient, recapturing a few more fields and treelines. Russian troops have begun to counterattack themselves, trying to push Ukraine back before they can get dug in to the newly captured areas.

Over in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, the fall of the cities continues to accelerate. Starting with Myrnohrad, Russian assault groups on the north and northeast sides captured more houses, expanding their foothold in the city. Most of the remaining Ukrainian troops are in Myrnohrad, trying to hold the lines whilst they gradually flee the pocket in small groups at night.

West of this in Pokrovsk, the situation is significantly worse. On the north side of the city, the remainder of the industrial area (above the i) and the western fields (above the r) have come under Russian control, with recent reports of Russian bombing of Hryshyne and the surrounding fortifications, possibly in preparation for a push on the town.

East of this, several Russian assault groups broke through the remaining Ukrainian positions in central Pokrovsk and reached the northern edge of the city, reducing the already thin exit route down to 2.9km. Those Ukrainian troops still in Myrnohrad, who are already taking heavy casualties just trying to escape, will have even more difficulty now and may soon be unable to leave altogether if the gap closes further.

To the south, other Russian forces finalised the clearing of Rih (suburb, under the a), whilst west of the city the remainder of the railway line and part of the fields north of Kotlyne (under the S) came under Russian control. The more of Pokrovsk is captured by the Russians (currently about 70%), the more difficult it will be for Ukraine to contest these outer fields and treelines.

Onto the Novopavlivka front, over the past week Russian assault groups began a push on the town, capturing the fields and treelines south of it before entering the southernmost street of the settlement. I do not expect this battle to progress quickly, just due to the relatively low amount of forces involved and how difficult it is for the Russians to get troops into the town.

Moving to the Pokrovske front, Russian assault groups continue to make quick work of many areas, reach the first buildings of Novooleksandrivka in the north and entering the farm right outside Danylivka (northwest).

To the south, whilst Russian DRGs started spreading out into the fields, taking advantage of the lack of Ukrainian troops, assaults groups captured the village of Krasnohirske, the last settlement on the east side of the Yanchur.

To the southeast, Russian assault groups began the attack on Uspenivka after weeks of shelling, establishing a foothold on the eastern side. The small town is essentially the last Ukrainian stronghold along the Yanchur (either side) and capture would free Russia up to advance west across a broad front to the Hulyaipole supply road.

A little to the south on the Hulyaipole front, Russian troops captured a number of fields and treelines, reaching the outskirts of Vesele.

Out west on the Zaporizhia front, over the past couple of days positional battles have been ongoing in Prymorske and Stepnohirsk, with both sides exchanging control of different areas. In the former, Ukraine pushed back the Russian advance deeper into Prymorske, while they secured the dachas on the southeastern side of the town.

In the latter, Russia secured the parts of Stepnohirsk south of the stream, whilst the Ukrainians secured the last houses to the north of the stream, effectively splitting the front along this water body. Expect a lot more back and forth on this front for the next while, as drone operators play wack-a-mole and each side sends small infantry groups to secure individual streets before being driven out.

Moving onto the Kherson front, over the past week Russian forces secured most of the remaining Dachas on Velyky Potyomkin Island, with the remainder going into the greyzone. Whilst some Russian soldiers did land on Quarantine Island, specifically on the western oil depot and the southern microdistrict, they did not actually secure any positions there and left shortly after.

As I said in a previous post, Russia is trying to draw as much Ukrainian attention to Kherson as possible in order to force them to redeploy units and weaken other fronts. Russia has not made any serious attempt to cross the Dnieper River and simply does not have the forces needed to launch an amphibious invasion to take the city.

Following on from picture 3, Russia cleared the last of the small pocket in Kupyansk, now in control of about 50% of the town. Some isolated Ukrainian soldiers may still be present on the southern part of the settlement but as of now it looks like Russia will be able to secure the remaining streets and push south.

Ukraine is still attacking northwest of the town, as they have been for over a month now, but has been unable to cut off the Russian supplies.

Back to the Lyman front, Russian assault groups operating on the west side have made significant advances. Several groups from Shandryholove (below the S) pushed west and managed to clear a large area of fields and treelines, bringing the front in line with the western edge of their earlier push through the national park.

Adjacent to this, other groups headed south into the forest and have expanded their control of the national park. The Russians now have access to a significant area to move around in that also provides good cover from drones. Ukrainian forces are stretched thin here and will now also have to deal with the Russians being able to attack Oleksandrivka, Sosnove or Yarova at any point in time.

Following on from picture 6, Russian troops captured the farm south of Predtechyne and some of the surrounding fields.

Following on from picture 7, Russian forces managed to recapture several fields and treelines as part of their counterattacks, but are still quite vulnerable and will struggle to hold against any follow up Ukrainian attack.

Following on from picture 8, in central Pokrovsk, Russia captured more buildings north of the railway, as well as securing the remainder of Rih (under the a) and some of the empty areas further south.

It was at this point in time that northwest of the city, 2 Ukrainian helicopters, flying as low as possible to avoid detection, headed directly towards the city, with 1 landing and dropping off 11 Ukrainian Special forces. This took place right outside the northwestern industrial area, essentially on the frontline at the time, with those soldiers fanning out towards the nearest buildings. The operation went badly however, with those same soldiers being spotted and hit by Russian drones almost immediately, some not even making it 100m from where they were dropped off. The geolocations in the video (which I’ve also checked myself) show the strikes all took place right in that area, with all soldiers being either killed or at least wounded in the fields or nearby buildings.

I cannot comment on the objective of such a crazy operation, as no one actually knows and we may never find out, but I can say that it was utterly idiotic. Dropping off special forces right on the frontline outside a city that Ukraine has already lost, in broad daylight, with numerous drones around, was nothing but suicidal. Even if they all made it to the nearby buildings those soldiers would still have been targeted by drones or FABs and would also have to contend with the Russian soldiers who are firmly entrenched in the industrial area. Regardless of the objective, this was a poorly thought-out operation that would simply never go well and was an absolute waste of highly trained troops.

Following on from picture 10, the Russian troops that entered Novooleksandrivka quickly captured the village, with Ukraine still struggling to put up much resistance on this front. Nautrally with the settlement under their control they were also able to take over the fields and treelines between it and nearby Oleksiivka (east).