RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1383 to 1385 of the War - Suriyakmaps

For today we’re starting on the Kupyansk front, where both sides have made some progress. Ukraine has continued to make progress on the western side of the town (see last post), with their assault groups capturing more of the outer streets in the western suburbs and the first houses on the southwest edge of Kupyansk. With the latter they did try and push further in but Russian troops have set themselves up in the highrises there and for the moment have managed to halt Ukraine pushing further in from that side.

Out east, more information regarding the Russian assault on Petropavlivka has been released, with their forces managing to push down and capture several streets immediately north of the centre of the town. This does split Petropavlivka in 2, with the outer streets on the north side separated from the bulk of the settlement south of this advance, but there are likely little to no Ukrainian troops present there. Heavy clashes are now occurring in central Petropavlivka as Russia tries to push further in to take the town, which would allow them to move west and link up with the forces within Kupyansk.

Down on the Oskil River front, after months of inactivity Russia restarted operations west of Novovodyane, clearing out the small pocket and fortifications next to the Zherebets River. This does mean Ukraine no longer controls any territory on either side of that river, but this has effectively been the case since about mid-year as they only held a small stretch with minimal troops present.

I’m not sure that Russia will continue operations in this area or if this was a one-off advance, as both sides have their forces allocated to the more important battles around Lyman and Kupyansk, hence the inactivity here for the past few months.

Onto the Chasiv Yar front, northwest of the town, Russia continues to make advances out west along the ridgeline, capturing several fields and treelines west of Maiske and entering the village of Virolyubivka. There were also some troops who pushed further west towards the reservoir near Klynove, although they have not consolidated, hence the greyzone. Also, yes there actually is a village called Stinky in this area.

To the southeast, after many months of inactivity Suriyak has correct the map to show Ukraine still in control of the outskirts of the village of Mykolaivka. After they captured Chasiv Yar earlier this year there was an assault attempt, however it was not successful and it does not look like the Russians tried again, so a small amount of greyzone and Russian territory has been remarked under Ukrainian control.

To the southeast again, Russia regained control of the streets east of the small reservoirs in Chasiv Yar, following the failed small Ukrainian attack back in early November. Noting the lack of Ukrainian presence I would argue the other few streets slightly west of this advance should also be remarked as under Russian control, but Suriyak has left them for now.

Slightly south of the previous picture on the Kostyantynivka front, Russian forces have increased their efforts to improve their positions around the city, advancing across a broad front from the edge of Kostyantynivka up hill towards Stupochky. This advance also saw Russia push into the forest on the outskirts of the city and start clearing the dachas there, which will help them secure new supply and reinforcement routes for the battle.

Slightly east of this, following an unsuccessful mechanised attack back in mid-November Suriyak has marked the area next to Stupochky as being back under Russian control. Same as before, this happened a while back but with no information coming out he left the frontline in this area as is until now.

Moving over to the north side of the Pokrovsk front (which is becoming the Dobropillya front once again), Russia has continued to regain ground in the former salient area, recapturing the village of Dorozhnje (hopefully for the last time) and re-entering the village of Ivanivka.

For a quick recap of this area, after the salient stabilised due to Ukraine reinforcing this front with many brigades back in August, they spent several months counterattacking to drive the Russians back. Eventually by the early part of November (specifically around the 11th and 12th) Ukraine had managed to recapture most of the salient and driven Russia almost back to where they first broke through. However around this time Ukraine rotated several of the brigades they had deployed here to the area immediately north of Pokrovsk to launch aggressive counterattacks back into the city and into Rodynske. Whilst this occurred Russia built back up its presence in this area, capturing Shakhove and taking over most of Sofiivka, before launching counterattacks in early December back into the former salient area.

That brings us to now where Russia has actually managed to recapture a decent chunk of the former salient area and is continuing to push forward. If Ukraine does not address this it will become the second time they have failed to cover this specific part of the frontline properly and will have ramifications for the eventual battle for Dobropillya.

Southwest of the previous picture, on the north side, Russia recaptured more of the northern houses in Rodynske. Ukrainian counterattacks into the town have dropped off significantly since their more aggressive attempts in November, but they are still present in and around the settlement.

To the southwest Russia has begun to push into the northern half of the city from the south, capturing several streets. This means that Russia is now pushing into the northern half of Myrnohrad from all sides simultaneously, so the battle will speed up somewhat.

Out on the Zaporizhia front, with Ukraine in deep trouble in Stepnohirsk and the surrounding region they have been unable to properly contest the area south of Lukyanivske. This has led to a small number of Russian troops pushed northwest from Kamyanka and Stepove, recapturing the last houses of the latter and taking over a decently sized area of treelines and fields. For now this is a one-off but Russia may consider trying to continue pushing northwest to try reach Lukyanivske and/or Pavlivka (dot above a).

Swinging back up ot the northern front, Russia has made good progress in its assaults on both Lyman (bottom left) and Vilcha (bottom right), capturing more streets and houses of both villages. Ukraine still has a minor presence in both settlements but will be driven out soon and forced further south to try hold the next row of villages.

To the northeast, Russia has also started to probe Ukrainian positions in Vovchansk Khutory, although no advance has been confirmed yet.

Following on from picture 1, Ukrainian infantry were spotted pushing their way across northern Kupyansk and reaching the only Russian supply route into the western side of the town. Whilst these soldiers were hit it still spells serious trouble for Russia that Ukraine is able to reach this area, as their forces in the town may soon be operationally encircled if Ukraine can secure the northern streets. As I described in this comment, Russia can and does supply its troops in western Kupyansk via drones but will still need a land route to handle casualty evacuate and bring reinforcements in.

As I said a little over a month ago, the battle is a race between Ukraine reaching the Oskil River and cutting off the Russian troops inside western Kupyansk and Russia capturing eastern Kupyansk (thus establishing a new supply route.

Heading to the Siversk front, on the northwest side, Russia has continued to make progress on both sides of the Siverskyi Donets River, with their assault groups moving out of Platonivka to occupy the treelines along the Lyman-Siversk road, whilst other groups north of the river clearing more of the remaining forest area. Whilst this might look bad for Zakitne, the village is not quite in as bad a position as it seems here. The Russians north of the river are highly unlikely to try cross it due to the weather, so Russia’s only approach vector is from the east. On the other hand the Ukrainian garrison in Zakitne only has one real route out, being via the hills to the southwest, so will have difficulty avoiding the Russian drones patrolling it.

To the southeast in Siversk, the Ukrainian defence of the town has quickly collapsed, with their remaining forces fleeing west over the Bakhmutovka River. The Russians have quickly pushed in and captured more than half of Siversk at this point, including some of the buildings west of the railway.

To be clear, the battle as a whole was not quick, just the last part of it. Russian assault groups first entered the town back in mid-November and slowly built up their numbers in the outer areas over the past few weeks, before launching a series of rapid assaults that overwhelmed the Ukrainians.

Moving on to the northern part of the Chasiv Yar front, Russia reactivated operations in yet another part of this area, pushing deeper into Orikhovo-Vasylivka and capturing over half of the village. Between this and some of the previous advances on this front over the past few weeks (above the p), the Ukrainian command here seem to have panicked, blowing up the reservoir in Pryvillya (under the k).

This was a rather bizarre decision, given the Russians are still a ways away from the village, the reservoir is so small that the water level would only slightly be raised along the Vasyukivka River and the Russians don’t need to cross it anytime soon.

Following on from picture 6, Russian assault groups from Pokrovsk have worked their way east over the past week, managing to capture more of the surrounding treelines and most of the village of Svitle (really a suburb of Myrnohrad). This will further complicate any breakout attempt by the remaining garrison, although I doubt they are able to even try one at this point.

Over on the Novopavlivka front, Ukraine has continued its counterattacks in and around the town, recapturing some of the treelines to the south. Clashes are ongoing in southern Novopavlivka as Ukraine tries to retake the last streets of the settlement.

Onto the Hulyaipole front, as mentioned at the bottom of the previous post Suriyak had marked the village of Dobropillya as Ukraine controlled before correcting to show it still under Russian control, which is what you see here. So nothing to discuss here as it was covered last week.

To the southeast, Russia has made a minor amount of progress in the assault on Hulyaipole, increasing their control of the northern houses. As I’ve mentioned before, whilst there are many reports of Russia being deeper into the town they haven’t been confirmed yet.

Following on from picture 10, on the northwest side, Russia began to assault the village of Dibrova, capturing some of the surrounding forest and a trench network during the first day.

To the southeast, other Russian groups have begun to assault Zakitne, taking over the easternmost houses of the village. They will try work their way up the only road to the west, so we will have to see if Ukraine intends to contest this settlement or will pull back to more defensible positions around Kryva Luka.

Going southeast again, Russia further expanded its control of Siversk, taking over more of the central streets. About 75% of the town is under their control at this point, with the remainder being cleared now. Russian claims of completely controlling Siversk are unfounded, as they have not crossed the river to the western streets yet.

Following on from picture 12, Russian assault operations in Myrnohrad continue, with their forces moving deeper into the city. Whilst Suriyak shows them taking control of a number of streets and apartment blocks here I think he has been a little too overenthusiastic with showing Russian control, as I don’t believe Russia has full control of these areas yet (should probably be greyzone).

Regardless, the remaining area that Ukraine controls is shrinking daily and the last remnants of their forces in the encirclement are being hunted down. I can’t see the battle continuing into next year unless Russia makes some serious mistakes or Ukraine somehow unblocks the garrison (extremely unlikely).

From Picture 1