RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1386 to 1388 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Kicking off we’re on the Lyman front, where after weeks of positional battles in the surrounding forest Russian troops have begun their assault on Yarova. The village is important as it is the last remaining land route for Ukrainian supplies to reach the Lyman front, as all others go via pontoon bridges over the Siverskyi Donets River. This battle will likely drag on for a while as Russia will need to both assault the village and defend from counterattacks from both the west and east.

Down on the Siversk front, the collapse of the town continues, with Russian forces capturing the remainder of the centre of the locality and easily pushing west over the Bakhmutovka River. As I mentioned in the last post, whatever surviving soldiers from the Ukrainian garrison were left have fled the town, leaving the Russians to clear out the remaining buildings almost uncontested.

On the southern side of the same front, over the past week Russian assault groups have expanded their control of the area around the Vasyukivka River, capturing the small village of Pazeno as well as some fortifications and treelines around the village of Vasyukivka. Whilst Russia has begun shelling neighbouring Bondarne their troops have not yet assaulted it, trying to improve their positions in the surrounding area first.

Moving to the Kostyantynivka front, on the northeast side, Russian forward groups from the previous post were unable to consolidate in the treelines east of the city, pulling back into their starting positions in the small forest area near the main road.

To the southwest, Russian assault groups have continued to gradually expand their control of the southeastern side of the city, capturing several more streets and some of the industrial buildings next to the Kryvyi Torets River (which splits Kostyantynivka in 2).

North of Pokrovsk, Russia has continued their counterattacks around Rodynske, pushing north of the town to re-enter the village of Sukhetske. Clashes are taking place here, but unless Ukraine further reinforces the area they will likely be forced back west over the railway.

Onto Myrnohrad, in the centre of the city, Russian assault groups continue to slowly push forward and have captured some more houses and apartments blocks to the east and south of the remaining Ukrainian area, even taking some prisoners. Whilst this has been occurring, Russian aviation has also continued to demolish the remaining Ukrainian strongholds in the city with FABs, demolishing the last remnants of the garrison. In case people need a reminder, whilst we don’t often get aftermath footage from FABs they can and do kill many soldiers, which is one of the reasons why we are not seeing as many drone or POW videos from Myrnohrad.

Out west, some Russian groups have moved into the fields between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, which have sat empty for weeks now.

Heading over to the Hulyaipole front, on the northwest side Russia has continue moving forward, capturing some more fields and treelines around Varvarivka. Whilst they had reportedly already entered the village a little while ago we have not seen any information on the assault since, so it is hard to tell whether they pulled out or if there is simply a lack of fighting (hence no footage).

To the south, Russian assault groups continue to gain ground in Hulyaipole, making their way along the eastern streets and closing in on the centre of the town. The weather here keeps flip-flopping between foggy and clear, so some days see more Russian movement and others none.

Swinging up to the northern front, Russian forces took over the remaining houses in the village of Lyman, capturing the settlement. Fighting continues in neighbouring Vilcha (east), but this now frees up Russian troops to push onto Hrafske and capture that chunk of forest to the west.

Onto the Kharkiv Border area, in the background of other battles in this oblast, Russian troops have been making slow, incremental progress in expanding their border bridgehead, capturing several treelines around Ambarne and south of Dvorichanske over the past 2 weeks. Whilst not an important area, the few units here are still applying pressure to Ukraine and making gains, which will add up over time.

Moving onto the Kupyansk front, whilst the battles continue to rage over the western half of the town, the other part of the race is occurring to the east. On the northwest side, the Russian assault on Petropavlivka is ongoing, with their troops capturing more of the houses and forest area in the northern part of the settlement. There are likely no Ukrainian troops left in the last northern houses, so once Russian troops have cleared them they can focus on pushing south to meet up with the units in Kupyansk.

To the southwest, Russian forces in eastern Kupyansk further secured their positions in the town and have also taken over most of the remaining industrial buildings. They are currently pushing into Kucherivka, where clashes are taking place as they try to capture the village. If they are able to take Kucherivka and the surrounding forest area it will be significantly easier for Russia to reinforce and supply their forces in Kupyansk.

Following on from picture 2, the Russian assault groups quickly cleared out and captured the remainder of Siversk, confirming full control of the town (video 1, video 2, video 3). With Ukrainian troops fleeing out west naturally some of the nearby fields and treelines also came under Russian control, as Ukraine was no longer contesting them.

This brings to an end one of the longest campaigns (not individual battle) of the war, which began several years ago. The capture of Siversk strips Ukraine of a core stronghold in the Donbas and unifies this Russian grouping into a broader push towards Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. The area northwest of Siversk will likely be cleared by Russia in the next day or two, as it is almost certainly empty, before they move on to try seize the fortifications around Riznykivka and Kalenyky (off map west). Ukraine for their part is trying to reorganise their forces and create a new defence line along the hills around Kryva Luka, past Kalenyky and over to Riznykivka.

Following on from picture 6, Russia captured the fields between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, shrinking the encirclement even further.

Over on the Pokrovske front, Russia slightly expanded its control of the fields near Nechaivka, sending some DRGs over the river to probe around Harsymivka and Ostapivske. With the latter, whilst Russia claims they captured the village it has not been confirmed yet, as only a few soldiers passed through the area (no consolidation).

On the other hand, Ukraine also does not control it as Russian troops were able to easily pass through and head towards Andriivka, so the Ukrainians likely fell back to better positions a little while ago. Also, Russia destroyed the mined bridge in Andriivka, which will complicate Ukrainian logistics to this area.

Following on from picture 7, the Russians assault groups within Hulyaipole have had more success in their attacks, capturing more of the east side of the town and pushing crossing the Haichur River into the town centre.

As has now become the main Russian strategy for bigger settlement battles, the actual number of troops involved in assaults is quite low, but there is an enormous amount of supporting equipment and drone teams striking any and all Ukrainian positions in Hulyaipole and the surrounding area (video 1, video 2, video 3, video 4). It’s quite likely that most of the garrison will be killed without ever seeing a Russian assault group, as they simply do not have the support they need to hold the town (vastly outmatched in artillery, air munitions and drones on this front).

Heading up to the Sumy front, this is another quieter area that has seen some advances occurring in the background over the past 2 weeks. Starting on the west side, Russian forces recaptured the border village of Kostyantynivka (was empty) and starting to push back towards Kindrativka from the north.

To the east, Russian troops have gradually worked on recapturing the area west and east of Oleksiivka, as well as pushing along the treelines towards Kindrativka as well.

Moving east again, Russia once again moved back into Varachyne (has really been greyzone for months), but this time also moved back down the treelines east of the village. None of these advances are major for this front, but it does indicate Russia may be trying to transition from being primarily defensive here (as they have been since about mid-year) to conducting a slow advance.

Following on from picture 10, we arrive at the major event this week. Ukraine continued its aggressive counterattacks in Kupyansk over the past 5 days, managing to capture another few streets on the west side and some apartment blocks on the southwest side of the town.

That was not all, as many other Ukrainian assault groups managed to break through the outer Russian positions and recapture all of the outer streets of northern Kupyansk, including the industrial area. This firmly cuts off the last land supply route into Kupyansk for the Russians, meaning all supplies now must come via drone (most already were) or over the Oskil River from eastern Kupyansk. There are many conflicting reports, but from what I can tell it seems like the Russians have pulled their remaining troops back towards the centre of western Kupyansk. Whether that is to try hold the line there or evacuate over to eastern Kupyansk I do not know.

North of here, due to the Ukrainian pressure and constant attacks Russian troops retreated across the entire northern flank, abandoning their positions in and around Kindrashivka and Radkivka. This led to Ukraine recapturing these villages and trying to push further forwards towards Kalynove and Holubivka. The developments in this northern area are the most confusing, as there is a lack of footage proving the Ukrainian advances here. To spoil the next post, Suriyak backtracks on a large chunk of the advance shown here, marking much of it as greyzone as it does not seem like Ukraine secured the area, just that the Russians pulled back.

The battle and race for Kupyansk that I described months ago is still undecided. It does look like Ukraine should be able to capture western Kupyansk, but Russia has also been making gains in eastern Kupyansk at the same time. It is going to come down to whether Ukraine can keep up these aggressive attacks, as they have been taking heavy casualties for months (this is just a portion of the footage from the past 3 days alone; video 1, video 2, video 3, video 4, video 5, video 6, video 7, video 8, video 9), or if they run out of steam like they have on many other occasions. Still, it has been a successful operation for them in PR terms, even if somewhat fabricated/inaccurate.

Following on form picture 12, Russia captured more of the remainder of Myrnohrad, clearing a number of houses and some apartment buildings on the east side the remaining encirclement.

Following on from picture 14, whilst the assault on the central part of the town continues, another Russian group has moved through the fields to the north and entered the houses on the very northern edge of Hulyaipole.