RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1412 to 1415 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Kicking off today’s post on the Kupyansk front, it remains a chaotic mess with more footage being released recently that raises more questions than answers. This update is quite complicated, so you’re going to have to bear with me.

Starting on the northern side, more information has been released regarding events in the fields and villages north of Kupyansk. First, the Russians released a video of drone strikes in and around Kindrashivka. Much of the video is the standard hits you would see anywhere, but several of the clips show Ukrainian assault groups in the southern streets of the village, trying to push further into locality. The other video that was released shows Russians walking around neighbouring Tyshchenkivka in the open, which would only be possible if they controlled at least part of Kindrashivka (otherwise they couldn’t have got there) and Ukraine’s control of Tyshchenkivka is minimal (or they wouldn’t be confident enough to walk in the open).

There are a few possibilities for the confusing events north of Kupyansk, but the most likely scenario is that the Ukrainians didn’t actually manage to clear many of the areas they claimed to have retaken. Back in early December where they launched a major series of counterattacks they claimed to have driven the Russians right back towards Kalynove, recaptured several villages and secured the fields. Instead, it seems like the Russians soldiers here dug in within Kindrashivka and the surrounding area, meaning that even when Ukraine pushed through they didn’t properly clear these places out. Over time they were forced back due to a lack of consolidation, so the Russians hiding within the village were never wiped out and they maintained control. Ukraine is obviously still attacking here, but they have been unable to secure as much ground as they had originally claimed.

To the southwest, the blue outlined area is where a few Russian soldiers were spotted in Moskovka back at the end of December. With no information coming out about this area Suriyak has removed the white layer showing uncertain or mixed control.

Within Kupyansk itself, the other white layers have all been removed as parts of the frontline have cleared up. Ukraine has consolidated in more sections on the western side of the town, clearing out some of the last outer strongholds that Russia held. On the other hand, Russia retained control of part of the centre of Kupyansk, as well as another portion of the industrial zone on the east side. Clashes are ongoing here, but bad weather has led to the intensity dropping quite a bit.

Over on the Sumy border area, Russia captured some of the treelines west of Hrabovske, with their troops trying to move into the forest next to Ryasne.

Down to the Oskil River front, over the past week Ukraine managed to retake some of the greyzone southeast of Bohuslavka, following Russia’s failed assault in December.

To the southwest, the Russian forces that had tried to push to Novoplatonivka were unable to hold their positions and forced to retreat back east, leading to Ukraine recapturing the treelines next to the village.

Onto the Lyman front, after over a month of DRG activity in the town, Ukraine managed to reestablish control over the streets on the eastern side and along the railway, resecuring their defences. Russia never controlled this area, but with their DRGs losing all positions within the town they are going to have to try assault it head on or wait until other units flank Lyman from other areas.

Heading to the Kostyantynivka front, at the start of this year Russian assault groups from Oleksandro-Kalynove pushed north and managed to capture the hill next to the Kleban-Byk Reservoir, as well as some of the nearby treelines. Some troops then pushed north through the large trench network along the highway, but have not consolidated here just yet.

I have also read reports that a squad or two even managed to push into Illinivka further north, but I doubt they will be able to secure it as they are just too far from friendly lines and surrounded by Ukrainian forces.

Over on the Dobropillya front, Russia continued advancing northwest of Shakhove, securing positions around some of the quarries. They have also started to shell Kucheriv Yar (blue dot further northwest), so we may see Russia try and recapture the village in the near future.

Out east, Russian troops from Sofiivka have been trying to secure the treelines northeast of the village, only managing to capture a few due to heavy Ukrainian shelling/droning.

Moving to the Novopavlivka front, in a surprise turn of events the Russians managed to cling to the southern part of the town against all odds and are now turning the situation around. For a quick recap, Russia managed to push into Novopavlivka back in late November, but a series of strong Ukrainian counterattacks drove them all the way back. By mid-December it looked like the last assault groups were going to be cut off by the Ukrainians taking over the treelines leading into Novopavlivka.

Since then, the Russians have stubbornly held onto the southern streets over the past 3 weeks, holding out against the Ukrainian attacks. They regrouped over this time period and launched several smaller attacks in the fields outside Novopavlivka, managing to recapture the area they lost and prevent their forces from being cut off. Russia will still have to capture the rest of Novopavlivka, but for now they have managed to stabilise a rapidly deteriorating situation and importantly held onto the foothold they established.

Heading to the Pokrovske front, Ukraine has continued taking advantage of the intermittent poor weather conditions to attempt DRG pushes and even assaults on several areas. For this front, Ukraine pushed through the lightly defended fields between Vidradne and Hai, reaching the outskirts of Vyshneve. These groups were defeated, but the problem of thin lines and bad weather making drone coverage difficult remains.

Down south on the Hulyaipole front, the same is happening here. After the failed mechanised attack/s from a 2 weeks ago, Ukraine followed it up with several smaller DRG and assault group pushes into the fields east of the Haichur River. These groups managed to get past the outer Russian positions, but were spotted and engaged further into the fields. This is still incredibly annoying for Russia, as it forces their attention away from the frontline and slows their push west down.

Whilst not outlined here, Suriyak has also updated the map to show Ukraine recaptured part of the railway south of Ternuvate and managed to regain control of the village of Kosivtseve (was partially Russian controlled).

Further south, Russia has been sending out DRGs from Hulyaipole, crossing the fields and entering Zelene, Sviatopetrivka, and Staroukrainka where they have been harassing and clashing with the Ukrainian garrisons.

Swinging up to the Sumy front, over the past week Russia has further expanded their control of the treelines around Andriivka, with some reports claiming fighting has begun outside Mala Korchakivka.

To the east, other Russian troops have also been moving along treelines, with this push aimed at moving south of Yablunivka and reaching one of the forest areas.

Over on the northern front, over the past few days Russia secured the more of the forest next to Prylipka (east advance), as well as the crossing over the Siverskyi Donets here.

A little to the west, Suriyak has marked the centre of Starytsya as under Russian control. With regards to this, Russia has likely controlled the village for well over a year and a half at this point, but limitations with information have meant Suriyak didn’t make an update. The last reported clashes within Starytsya, when Ukraine assaulted the village and tried to recapture it, were back in mid-2024. No Ukrainian progress has been recorded or proven here since July 2024, so it is likely that that assault failed and the Ukrainians pulled back. However, with Kursk kicking off shortly after and both sides freezing this frontline, no reports were made and thus the map has remained the same here ever since.

Following on from picture 1, north of Kupyansk, further information and reports have confirmed that Russia controls more of the fields south of Kalynove, as well as them controlling the village of Tyshchenkivka. It is unclear how long they have held this, as it could have occurred before Ukraine launched their major counterattack or in the weeks after when they failed to consolidate.

To the south, during the clashes in eastern Kupyansk Russia managed to recapture some of the industrial facilities, trying to push back down and reach the central road once again.

There have also been some rather baffling DRG activities east and southeast of Kupyansk, with Russian soldiers shown to be in eastern Podoly and also parts of Kurylivka. For the moment this seems to be either the Russians trying to sow confusion about where they are or to make fake claims of control (as this command did with Kupyansk originally), but it should still concern Ukraine that Russian troops have been able to walk 4 to 9km behind their lines undetected.

Down on the Lyman front, Russia renewed its attacks, making key progress in a couple of areas. Starting with the north side, Russian assault groups managed to capture a portion of the forest outside Yarova, boxing Ukraine into the village. More interestingly, Russian assault groups were able to re-enter western Yarova, but pushed through it to attack some of the Ukrainian fortifications outside Svyatohirsk next to the Siverskyi Donets River. If they can consolidate here it will mean the western land route to Lyman has been cut, forcing all supplies over the Siverskyi Donets river. Additionally, it indicates that Ukraine does not have solid control of Yarova and that the Russians have been able to slip through into Svyatohirsk, which is now under threat.

To the southeast, whilst Russian DRGs were driven out of southern Lyman, other Russian forces have managed to move up the treelines outside the town and capture the farm right on the edge of the locality. Whilst it is highly unlikely Russia will be able to push many troops into the town from here, they are closing the gap on multiple sides and the angles Ukraine has to cover continues to grow, increasing the chance of Russians breaking into Lyman.

There were also some smaller advances in the fields east of Lyman and the forest to the south, again just slowly taking over the surrounding area to pressure the Ukrainians.

Moving on to the Siversk front, Russia continues to increase the pressure around the canal area, securing a foothold in Minkivka (above the k) and pushing slightly out from Novomarkove (below the a). Markove is under heavy shelling and will likely be assaulted by Russia in the coming days.

Down south on the Kostyantynivka front again, Russia has renewed their attacks east of the city and managed to recapture some of the fields next to the T0504 road. They’ve also pushed back into the forest area here following the Ukrainian counterattacks a few weeks ago, but no progress has been confirmed yet.

Following on from picture 8, Russian forces managed to assault and capture the village of Bratske, as well as the surrounding fields and treelines over the past week. This further expands their bridgehead in this area, but for the moment Russia has not pushed any further west so that they can stay close to their supporting forces (who are on the east side of the Haichur River). They would have to swing southwest and assault Ternuvate eventually, otherwise Russia will lack a forward base in this area and have no good supply routes for the push west.

Back down to the Hulyaipole front, Russia secured some more of the treelines north of Dorozhnyanka, getting close to aligning the front with Hulyaipole.

Out west on the Zaporizhia front, my earlier comments about Prymorske have proven to be correct, with Ukraine withdrawing their infantry from most of the town. This is what allowed Russian DRGs to push so far into the locality and has now led to Russian securing most of it. All that now remains is some of the northernmost streets, but it is unclear if Ukraine intends to defend these or will abandon them like the rest of the settlement.

The weakened Ukrainian units in this area are instead relying almost solely on drones to stop the Russian advance, which obviously isn’t working. Still, Russia will need to move their own drone teams up and widen the front in this area soon, so that they can pressure the Ukrainians and prevent being cut off by a sudden counterattack.
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