UA POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1445 to 1448 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Starting today’s post in the Sumy border area, Russian troops further expanded their control of the forest near Popovka, capturing most of the remainder of it as well as the tiny village of Sydorivka. It’s highly unlikely these troops will stray further north towards the nearby villages, as it would require leaving the cover of the forest area they’ve been using to cross the border, but they may push further west and try capture more of the forest that runs through this area.

Onto the other section of the Sumy border area, east of the city itself, in the centre, Ukraine finally decided to respond to some of the Russian activity and counterattacked in Popivka, driving out the Russian squad that took the tiny village a few days prior.

At the same time, slightly to the northwest other Russian troops pushed further into Pokrovka, capturing most of the small forested area east of the village as well as some of the houses. Fighting is ongoing here, but its hard to judge who will come out on top as we do not know how much Russia will want to commit to these attacks (goal is to divert attention and stretch forces, not capture areas).

Moving to the Kharkiv border area, the Russian assault on Chuhunivka is ongoing, with their troops now in control of about half the village. The clashes here are heavier than expected given the settlement’s size, as it looks like Ukrainian garrisons of the nearby villages have been pulled in to try deny Russia this foothold.

Heading to the Kupyansk front, to be blunt it’s still a confusing mess. On the north side the Russians managed to move on from the gas compressor station west of Holubivka and have captured part of the forest area outside Kupyansk itself, as well as the warehouses on the very northern edge of the town. Fighting has also renewed in Radkivka (grey dot) as it looks like the Russians are rebuilding that northern flank to try push back into western Kupyansk once again.

To the south, Suriyak has marked that one small strip of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi as back under Ukrainian control, which is where the single Russian DRG was spotted a few weeks back. I can’t comment on this as there is virtually no information on where these DRGs are and if they were actually cleared out.

Out east, Russia continues to build up the number of troops it has present in Petropavlivka, with the eastern edge of the small town coming under their control. The remainder of the locality is still in the greyzone and its unclear if Ukraine has been forced to retreat from here (as Suriyak claims) or are trying to hold onto their remaining positions.

Over on the Siversk front, Russian pressure in the hills around Zakitne has forced Ukraine to withdraw back to the fortifications line from Kryva Luke to Kalenyky, with their troops taking over more of the treelines. This is the line I mentioned a few months back that Ukraine would try to hold after losing Siversk, so we have now reached the pivotal moment where Ukraine will try to hold this line at all costs, or else Russia will be able to break through and push all the way to the canal outside Slovyansk.

Further south on the same front, Russian forces are working on securing the greyzone between Bondarne, Pryvillya and Nykyforivka after their earlier DRG infiltrations. Fighting is ongoing in the latter two as well as Minkivka, with reportable changes yet.

Down to Kostyantynivka, east of the city, Russia has continued their attempts to sneak DRGs into the area around Novodmytrivka, with no success so far.

To the southwest, Russian assault groups finally managed to gain a foothold in Stepanivka, capturing the southern half of the village. Heavy clashes are ongoing over the rest of the locality, with the battle likely to drag on for at least another couple of weeks.

Heading to the Pokrovsk front, reports suggest that Russia has driven out the last of the Ukrainians from their latest attempt to recapture Rodynske, with fighting moving to the mine immediately west of the town. I’m not sure I believe every single building in that area has been cleared yet, but with how few soldiers there could possibly be there they are unable to disrupt Russian operations.

There is still a decent chance that Ukraine goes for yet another series of counterattacks here, which is why Russia has been trying to capture the mine and nearby treelines to act as a buffer in case it happens.

Now onto the biggest event in the past week, which requires a lot of background discussion and information to better understand. On the Pokrovske front (and the Hulyaipole front at the same time), Ukraine has been building up its forces over the winter, bringing in additional assault regiments and other brigades from other fronts, adding to the already large presence of offensive forces here. Whilst the units themselves have not all been accounted for, the current reports put it at over ¾ of Ukraine’s assault forces being present here as well multiple other mechanised and air assault brigades. By number of units, they actually outnumbered the Russian Vostok group by late January, although the mismatched staffing levels make it difficult to determine if they actually had more soldiers and equipment than the Russians or not.

Through January Ukraine brought more and more of its troops over the Vovcha River (runs below Velykomykhailivka), recapturing the thinly held Russian settlements of Hai (under the S) and Orestopil (above the m). Russia was not defending this area particularly well as they had abandoned their attempts to cross the Vovcha River late last year and instead focused on Hulyaipole, so whilst the bulk of their forces moved in that direction these fields and villages were left with barebones garrisons. Ukraine then built up its forces in these areas, gathering many assault groups and DRGs, before launching a ‘counteroffensive’ in the early hours of Friday 06th February.

This section will only cover the Pokrovske portion of the ‘counteroffensive’, with the next one under picture 10 covering the Hulyaipole side. Owing to the weak Russian presence as described above, this side of the Ukrainian attacks saw the most success. DRG groups were flooded into the treelines and fields south of their positions in the days and week prior to the main attack, with the assault group following through and managing to recapture a significant area up to the Russian settlements just north of the Yanchur River. Whilst there were some vehicles used these forces primarily were on foot and dispersed, overwhelming Ukrainian drone and artillery teams. Their goal is to flood the area with their forces and rapidly overwhelm the Russians, capturing several villages and forcing them to withdraw from as significant portion of the frontline here. Despite some claims, fighting is still ongoing in and outside many of these localities and there is no confirmation of the Ukrainian capture of most of them. They obviously could fall, but for the moment its Ukraine trying to use the chaos and sheer numbers to throw the Russians off and make gains before they can recover and wipe out these spread-out forces.

Now we’re onto the other side of the Ukrainian attacks. Starting on the northwestern part of the map, Ukraine managed to drive out the few Russian troops in Ternutave and Prydorozhnje. As we discussed two weeks ago, despite their claims they never controlled these settlements and only had a foothold, so the larger Ukrainian attacks quickly forced them to retreat.

This is where the situation diverges quite a bit from the Pokrovske front attacks. Ukrainian assault groups on this front launched several mechanised columns towards Russian positions from Rizdyanka, Vozdvyzhivka and Verkhnya Tersa (under the @), as opposed to the other Ukrainian attacks that were primarily on foot. Due to the much larger Russian presence and supporting forces in this area these Ukrainian troops fared much worse than their compatriots, with multiple columns being hit well before reaching the Russians and individual vehicles being picked off (video 1, video 2) and troops hit right before they could reach landing areas. This still resulted in the greyzone near the Haichur river expanding a bit as Ukraine presses in, but compared to their progress on the other front the Ukrainians have made minimal progress in the past week.

Shortly before the Ukrainian attacks began, down south the Russians finalised their assault on Zaliznychne and captured the small town. The Ukrainians put a lot of effort and troops into holding this settlement, possibly due to the attacks they were about to launch as its capture denies Ukraine a position close to Hulyaipole. However, for the Russians the timing is incredibly awkward as they now have to try dig into the settlement to prevent its recapture, whilst also shifting their troops around to respond to the other Ukrainian attacks on weaker areas.

If you’ve noticed the apostrophes around ‘counteroffensive’, that is because I do not actually believe this is one. It certainly is a Ukrainian counterattack, but falls more in line with the larger counterattacks they launched throughout 2025, almost all of which lasted no longer than 2 weeks. As I explained in this comment, the Ukrainians and Ukrainian media are currently in a bind as they are claiming that it both is and isn’t a counteroffensive for various reasons, contradicting each other and even their own claims. The damage control some sources are resorting to, stating it is standard clearing operations, likely relates to their own inaccurate mapping and reports going back months, as otherwise they cannot justify why Ukraine would build up so many troops and launch such large attacks against territory they apparently always controlled. At the same time the ones claiming it is a major counteroffensive are doing so to spin positive PR for Ukraine and claim significant successes against the Russians in the wake of the months of bad news (most recently the constant blackouts), exaggerating events to try boost morale. It falls somewhat in the middle as these things tend to do, but over the next week or two the situation should become clearer and the actual frontline will be confirmed.

Swinging back up to the Oskil River front, Russia has launched another assault on Bohuslavka from the southeast, with this attempt likely to fail like the last one due to a lack of cover and sufficient forces.

At the same time Ukraine continues to assault Borivska Andriivka and has recaptured a few more houses in the village.

Following on from picture 6, Russian forces moved slightly further north along the canal near Novomarkove, capturing some more of the treelines and dugouts on either side.

Following on from picture 7, more Russian DRG activity has been recorded east of the city, with no confirmed consolidation like in the other picture.

Heading to the Novopavlivka front, over the past two weeks Russia has been trying to break the deadlock within Ivanivka, as their troops made slightly more progress within the village. To that end they have also been sending a couple of small groups out into the treelines northeast and northwest of the locality, trying to establish control and prevent Ukrainian troops from reinforcing Ivanivka.

Following on from picture 10, during the Ukrainian counterattacks their forces were able to push on and establish a foothold in Kosivtseve, where clashes began.

Out on the Zaporizhia front, since the beginning of February Ukraine has also launched several counterattacks on this front, recapturing a significant portion of greyzone as well as the northern section of Prymorske and some of the settlements east of Stepnohirsk. Like with the Pokrovske front, a lot of these outer positions were weakly held by a few forward Russian troops, who lack the numbers to defend against larger attacks.

I’ll note that the middle advance is disputed by some sources, who claim that fighting is ongoing throughout the area and that they greyzone remains as it has for weeks. We’ll likely get further confirmation in the coming days as more footage is released, but for now its also a mess for Russia.