RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1455 to 1461 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Starting off today’s post on the Sumy border area, Russia has continued to make advances with its small force south of Yastrubshchyna, capturing more of the forest along the border and the village of Kharkivka.

As I’ve mentioned before, its unlikely Russian troops will move much further north as they’ll want to stay within the cover provided by the forest and their drone teams within Russia. The only reason they would push further out here would be if they intended to turn this from a border incursion into a new front, which would require a lot more troops than they currently have here.

Down to the Lyman front, over the past couple of weeks Russian assault groups have managed to slightly improve their positions south of the town, taking over a bit more of the forest next to Dibrova. Their goal will be to push west and either take over the two villages next to the Siverskyi Donets River (Staryi Karavan and Brusivka) or at least to cut the supply route leading into Lyman.

Over on the Kostyantivka front, clashes are ongoing throughout the city, with the Ukrainians managing to recapture some of the eastern streets during their recent counterattacks, whilst the Russians expanded their control of the southwestern suburbs and are currently trying to breach further into the locality.

Heading to the Hulyaipole front, following their earlier captures of Tsvitkove and Staroukrainka, Russian troops managed to clear the treelines and Krynychne farm between the two villages. Naturally their goal will now be to push over the railway and assault Hirke and Verkhnya Tersa, although they’ll need to consolidate their current positions first.

Swinging up to the Sumy front, over the past week Russia made two small advances towards the villages along the Oleshnya River, taking over a couple of treelines near Mala Korchakivka as well as several others north of Marine. The fighting here remains relatively low intensity, so we’ll continue to see more of this slow, creeping advance for at least the next month.

Moving to the Kupyansk front (or is it the clown front?), Russia has managed to make several key advances over the past week. On the north side, Russian forces captured the remainder of western Petropavlivka next to the Hnylytsya River, as well as the wastewater treatment plant and adjacent fortifications a little to the south. This has further solidified Russian control over this area and put the Ukrainian garrison in Kucherivka in a dire position, as they are cut off from friendly lines and only being supplied via drones. If Russia can assault and capture the village from both sides they will be able to secure eastern Kupyansk and begin bringing in additional forces.

To the southeast, other Russian troops captured more of the treelines next to eastern Petropavlivka, as they gradually work on securing the remainder of the town.

Moving southwest, Russian DRGs remain present throughout Podoly, despite Ukrainian attempts to drive them out. They have not been able to consolidate here yet, however at least one group managed to push far into Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi, deep into the heart of the Ukrainian stronghold there. This is a worrying sign for Ukraine, as the Russians being able to get DRGs 10km into their lines and into some of their most fortified positions undetected indicates that their defences of this front are quite porous and could crack under further pressure.
r/UkraineRussiaReport - RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1455 to 1461 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Back to the Lyman front, on the far northern side, Russia made a minor advance north of Novomykhailivka and on the eastern edge of Karpivka for the first time in months. This part of this front is a low priority for Russia, hence the lack of activity over the past 6 months, and these are likely just opportunistic advances down by the local units.

To the south, Russian troops expanded their control of the fields and treelines around Stavky, gradually clearing out greyzone and bringing the frontline closer and closer to Lyman.

Onto the Siversk front, over the past week Russian assault groups managed to increase their advances after the capture of some key hills around Zakitne, seizing multiple fields and treelines to the east of Kryva Luka (under the @). At the same time as this some Russian infantry have started working their way around the village, trying to entrench themselves in the hills on the other side and cut it off from supplies and reinforcements.

Simultaneously, other Russian assault groups advanced in Riznykivka as well as on the ridge above the village, capturing several houses and trench networks. The Ukrainian defence line on this front that I have been talking about since the fall of Siversk looks close to cracking, which will lead to a deeper Russian push west and their capture of the entire area east of the canal.

Down to the southern side of the Siversk front, Russian assault groups managed to capture most of Nykyforivka (north side), as well as the adjacent hamlet of Lypivka. Their positions are quite exposed so they will need to consolidate and secure the nearby treelines to truly take Nykyforivka, but if they can do that they will be able to assault Fedorivka Druha from the east and north side.

To the south, another Russian group managed to capture the remainder of Pryvillya, securing the village. They have then gone onto attack neighbouring Holubivka, a minor village which is just a single street.

Next to this, other Russian troops managed to recapture most of Minkivka and capture the last houses, establishing full control over the settlement. They too will assault Holubivka, which will likely lead to the village falling within the next few days. After this the Russians will be able to consolidate throughout this area and push the front out to the canal, before joining with the Russian assault groups aiming for Fedorivka Druha.

Following on from picture 3, Russian assault groups made further progress on the southern side of Kostyantynivka, capturing the remaining greenhouses and some of the adjacent houses, as well as establishing a small foothold in the streets near Berestok. The fighting for Kostyantynivka is gradually being pushed from the edge of the city into its southern and central suburbs, as Russian pressure mounts and their troops gain forward positions to operate from.

Around this time Russia also destroyed the Osykove dam, which has flooded one of the few supply routes into the city. This puts further pressure on Ukraine, who were already struggling to get soldiers and supplies in or out of Kostyantynivka.

Over on the Dobropillya front, Russia made a minor advance in Toretske, capturing the last of the village (being several separated streets). It is still far from secure due to Russia not controlling the ridge and hill nearby, but they should be able to capture those in the coming days/week.

To the southwest, Russia also recaptured the remaining treelines south of Dorozhnje, bringing the entire area east of the railway here back under their control.

Moving to the Pokrovsk front, Russia continues trying to push out from Udachne, managing to secure the open coal mine north of the town after weeks of back and forth, whilst Ukraine is simultaneously trying to break back into Udachne.

Heading to the Novopavlivka front, in the town itself, clashes continue over the central area, with no notable changes.

To the southwest, Russia has managed to push out slightly and capture one of the treelines between Novopavlivka and Ivanivka.

Onto the Pokrovske front, where the Ukrainian ‘counteroffensive’ continues. Starting with the east side, Ukrainian assault groups from numerous directions have continued trying to break deep into Russian lines amidst heavy shelling, with the remainder of Verbove being captured. Other assaults on Kalynivske, Stepove and Ternove have so far failed, but they are continuing to try pour troops into the area. As mentioned in the last post, this area is no longer outer Russian positions but solidly held lines much closer to their drone operators, leading to significant losses in the mechanised attacks (new vids only; video 1, video 2, video 3, video 4, video 5, video 6, video 7, video 8).

To the west we have a slightly older development which has only been confirmed recently. When Ukraine launched their counteroffensive the Russian assault groups in the outer settlements of Bratske, Andriivka, Harasymivka, Pischane, Zarichne, and Ostapivske were left exposed and at risk of being cut off. As such, their troops were withdrawn in the first week or so of the counteroffensive (so somewhere around 8 to 12 February), with Ukraine reportedly entering these villages later on. This was rumoured and claimed at the time it occurred, however the primary issue was that Ukraine and Ukrainian sources have always denied that they ever lost this area, so their reports for the past 3 months have always listed these settlements as under their control. Thus we saw virtually no change in Ukrainian reporting on this part of the front despite the rumoured Russian withdrawal and it was only later when more footage and Russian reports were released that it could be confirmed. The Russians that withdrew are now trying to hold the riverline around Nechaivka, to prevent Ukraine pushing any further into their lines.

On a related note, I have seen an increasing number of Ukrainian reports about recapturing 300km2 in their “counteroffensive but not a counteroffensive” so far. Per Suriyak’s numbers they are at about 283.89km2 so far, which is close enough to the 300km2 claim. However, Suriyak and other third-party mappers reported on Russian gains in Dnipro and Zaporizhia Oblast, which Ukrainian sources denied as I mentioned above. This means that for the 300km2 Ukrainian claim to be true, their mappers would have to have lied as neither Deepstate nor other pro-Ukrainian mappers show anywhere near 300km2 recaptured as of now. This is the problem with lying about the actual progress of the frontline, as it means that when Ukraine does have successes they either have to catch themselves out or simply not report on them.

Following on from picture 4, this is where things get rather weird. Starting on the south side and going north, Russian troops captured more positions southwest of Hulyaipole, including one of the key hills that overlooks the area. Other troops have begun to move west of Staroukrainka and are preparing to assault Hirke.

Shifting north, new geolocations have shed light on the situation around the Haichur River. Over the past week it seems like Russia was able to stabilise after the Ukrainian mechanised assaults throughout February, managing to recapture the villages of Varvarivka and Olenokostiantynivka (all above the y). Furthermore, they have pushed onto Pryluky where they are trying to drive the Ukrainian assault groups out.

Moving north again, other Russian assault groups counterattacked and managed to retake many of the fortifications around the Haichur River, before moving back into Kosivtseve, where clashes have resumed.

If this all seems rather confusing given the Ukrainian counteroffensive, keep in mind what I said 2 weeks ago; whilst the Russian positions on the Pokrovske front were rather weak and exposed, the Hulyaipole front was much stronger due to the bulk of the Russian Vostok group being deployed there. This meant that the northern Ukrainian attacks were quite successful (for the first week), whilst the western attacks ran into severe problems almost immediately. Ukraine has not consolidated their positions throughout these fronts yet, nor have they moved their drone teams forwards, so whilst they were able to push the Russians back through rapid mechanised attacks they are not secured defensively and thus were vulnerable to counterattacks. The Russians look to have started these on the west side first due to Ukraine not being as strong here, but will likely try to counterattack the north side (picture 14) as soon as possible to prevent Ukraine securing their gains.

Out on the Zaporizhia front, over the past week Russia pushed back into Novoyakovlivka, capturing about half the village.

At the same time, a couple of Ukrainian assault groups have pushed deep into the greyzone and then Russian lines east of Stepnohirsk, trying to flank the Russian supply and troop movement routes. It’s unlikely to be successful due to a lack of support and how exposed they are, but it will slow Russia down.

As for the little red section in the bottom left, that is Russia removing that one DRG that managed to sneak into Plavni the previous week. Suriyak marked this as an underlayer, as he has started to do with DRG infiltrations this year, so it will not be included as an advance (like the previous ones for both sides).