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Post #30

RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances on Day 796 of the war - Suriyakmaps

Apr 30, 2024 — Apr 30, 2024 War Day 796–796

Ukrainian Advance
0.16 km²
Overall (set): 0.68 km²
Russian Advance
8.84 km²
Net Change
-8.68 km²

Situation Snapshots

Imagery, commentary, and territorial changes from the period.

4 entries
Russian Forces Advance: 7.88 km²

Left Advance = 3.04km2, Middle Advance = 0.61km2 (map correction) , Right advance = 4.23km2

The Russian advance around Ocheretyne continues at full speed. Russian forces were able to push northwest towards Novooleksandrivka, as Ukrainian forces have few defences built along the railway area, and even fewer troops to man them. This has forced them to pull back yet again, in a pattern we've seen since the push into Ocheretyne began.

Further east, Russian control over Novokalynove has been confirmed, having captured the entirety of the village. Clearing operations of Keramik have not concluded yet, but Russia will likely gain control over that village and many of the surrounding fields in the coming days. Russia's next move in this specific area will be to push north towards Arkhanhelske, and dislodge the Ukrainian garrison who set up there after retreating from Ocheretyne.

The blue 'advance' shown on the eastern edge of Ocheretyne is a correction by Suriyak, as it had mistakenly been shown to have been taken by Russia. It is doubtful there are any Ukrainian soldiers in the handful of small buildings, but is being shown as under Ukrainian control until there is confirmation otherwise.
Ukrainian Forces Advance: 0.07 km²

Advance = 0.07km2

Russia withdrew from the handful of buildings it controlled on the eastern edge of the microdistrict, with Ukraine moving in to fill the void. Russian forces here had not made attempts to push further into the microdistrict, due to their own intensive bombardment and Ukrainian defences.

Russia will likely continue its strategy of mass bombardment and pushing on the flanks, before making an offensive attempt to take the whole of the microdistrict. Russia is happy to do this as compared to other fronts its losses here are minimal, and it is able to slowly deplete Ukrainian forces without having to risk its own soldiers.
Russian Forces Advance: 0.96 km²

Advance = 0.96km2

After several months of slow pushes, Russia has dislodged Ukraine from the village of Robotyne, controlling over half of (the ruins of) the village proper. Ukrainian forces have been pushed back to just north and east of the town, and will be unlikely to be able to re-enter it. Russia does not yet control the whole village, however given Ukraine has almost no presence there they are claiming control. It will still take some time for Russia to fully capture Robotyne, however it is inevitable at this stage.

Having failed in its political goal here, to hold Robotyne after taking it during the counteroffensive, Ukraine SHOULD withdraw from the Salient, as it no longer holds any benefit for their forces, and they would take far fewer losses holding the defensive line they have set up south of Orikhiv (to the north of this map). However, given Ukraine's track record of holding territory for as long as possible regardless of it no longer making strategic sense, they will likely try hold the rest of the salient, and will be slowly pushed out by Russia over the next few months.
Ukrainian Forces Advance: 0.09 km²

Advance = 0.09km2

Russian forces advanced on the west side of Krasnogorivka, after a mechanised assault which can be seen here. Despite the claims made in that comment section and by various Russian sources, most of the mechanised assault was on Russian controlled territory, and its purpose was to drop off additional assault groups in the western part of the city, so the assault forces already in Krasnogorivka can continue pushing north.