UA POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 894 to 896 of the War (Part 1) - Suriyakmaps

Now for the big event everyone has been talking about: The Kursk Incursion. I’m going to combine the analysis of all 5 pictures into one section, as its important to make sure the order of events is clear.

On the morning of Tuesday 6th August 2024, Ukrainian forces in Sumy Oblast, primarily the 22nd Mechanised Brigade, and 80th Air Assault Brigade, launched an attack into Kursk Oblast in Russia. Whilst Russian Border Guards in this area carried out several drone strikes on some Ukrainian forces before they crossed the border, they were swiftly overwhelmed by the more numerous and better equipped Ukrainian force.

The attack had 2 ‘prongs’, one heading north through the fields towards Korenevo, and another heading east towards Sudzha. The Ukrainian force was made up of Mechanised/Motorised units riding in APCs, IFVs, and Armoured Cars. This gave the Ukrainian forces great mobility, which they used to rapidly push along the roads and fields, bypassing or simply ignoring the villages, as they sought to push as deep into Russian territory as possible.

As for the Russian forces, they were almost entirely Border Guards Units (partly made of conscripts), who lacked vehicles and heavy equipment. There were also an unknown number of specialist units in the area (Lancet Operators, Drone Teams, Krasnopol Artillery Crew/s, Tornado MLRS crews), who were primarily there to conduct opportunistic strikes on Ukrainian assets in Sumy. As you can imagine, the Border Guards unit faired very poorly against the Ukrainian force, and the specialist units were simply too few to stop the attacks.

Within the first 6 hours, the northern ‘prong’ had pushed through and ‘captured’ several villages, as it headed towards Novoivanovka along the main road (Picture 1). At the same time, the eastern ‘prong’ headed along the R200 road towards Sudzha, clashing with Russian units on the outskirts of the town (Picture 1). Just south of here, Another Ukrainian group crossed the border in an attempt to encircle the small Russian garrison at Oleshnya (Picture 1). This is where the first small group of Russian conscript POWs were captured, as seen in this video. We also started to see Russian forces striking back, including hits on Armoured Cars as seen in this video, and even destroying a BUK (SPAA) covering the Ukrainian attack. As for Russia, 2 Tanks were destroyed whilst still on their trailers, and a KA-52 was downed whilst trying to strike advancing Ukrainian columns.

The next Picture (2) comes towards the end of the first 24 hours of the incursion (Tuesday going into Wednesday). The Northern Ukrainian force continued quickly advancing forward, meeting little to no Russian resistance on the ground, as Russian units scrambled back. It was not all rosy for Ukraine however, as Russian specialist units continued striking them from range, such as in this video, where a Ukrainian column’s lead vehicles got struck by Lancets, before Russia used an Iskander on the remaining clumped up vehicles. At least 8 Armoured Cars were destroyed, and possible 4 more damaged, with an unknown number of casualties. This continued well into the night, with another Ukrainian column stopped near Leonidovo (top right blue dot), struck multiple times by Krasnopol shells, resulting in at least 4 vehicles destroyed, and 2 more damaged. On the Russian side, at some point during the day an MI-28 helicopter was hit in the tail with an FPV drone, however the second FPV drone (no hit) shows the Helicopter still flying, so results are inconclusive.

As for the eastern Ukrainian force, by the end of the first day they were driven someway back from Sudzha, as Russian forces counterattacked the Ukrainian groups along the main road. These forces retreated in order to regroup for an attack the next day. To the south, the encirclement on Oleshnya was pushed back over the border, with Ukrainian forces also retreating to regroup.

By the afternoon on the second day of the incursion (Day 895), the situation was as per Picture 3. Ukrainian forces launched another series of attacks to the east, this time breaking through the main road to Sudzha, and fighting on the western edge of the town. This included overrunning many Russian Border Guards units, and taking dozens of POWs. Despite what some of the UA sources say, this was not in Sudzha, but further to the west. A few small groups of UA recon teams in MRAPs moved into the forest areas to the south, clearing out any remaining Russian troops. The situation in this area is the same as it was for the Russians around Vovchansk, as I explained a few months ago. Ukraine has ‘established control’ here by sending some units in to clear the area, but does not firmly occupy it like with the main road.

To the North, Ukrainian troops continued trying to push through towards Korenevo along the main road, but were bogged down by long-range Russian strikes, and small counterattacks.

By the end of the second day (Picture 4), Ukrainian forces had made more progress. The northern grouping starting advancing east, towards the railway line. At the same time, the eastern Ukrainian force had managed to break through the few Russian units defending Sudzha, capturing most of the western side by midnight. These Russian soldiers stood almost no chance, being in disarray, lacking arms, jammed communications, and facing a far superior force. The remaining troops pulled back to the eastern side of the town, on the other bank of the river. Once again, Russian continued to attrition the Ukrainian force with long-range strikes, hitting another Ukrainian column with an Iskander (airburst), as well as hitting 5 different vehicles (IFV, APCs, Armoured car) with Lancets in the span of a few hours.

By early afternoon on the third day of the Kursk incursion (Thursday), Ukrainian forces had advanced towards Kazachya Loknya, where they are currently clashing with Russian forces

Overnight, and into the morning, Ukrainian columns were reported to have headed towards Korenevo, and all the way up to Kromskie Byki, as they ignore most villages and defence positions, trying to get as far as possible.

The situation in these 2 areas is unknown, but early reports suggest that fighting occurred outside of Korenevo, but no foothold has been gained yet by Ukraine. As for the other village, the only information we have (as of writing) is that fighting may have taken place around Anastas'evka, however no videos or photos exist to confirm it.