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Post #83

RU POV: Russian advances from Day 905 and 906 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Aug 17, 2024 — Aug 18, 2024 War Day 905–906

A lot of major developments today, with wide-reaching effects that will impact the course of the war.

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Pictures 1 to 3 are from Day 905, and Pictures 4 to 8 are from Day 906.

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A reminder that these maps are confirming updates from previous days (i.e. 12 to 24 hours delayed from each day).

Ukrainian Advance
0.00 km²
Overall (set): 0.00 km²
Russian Advance
77.07 km²
Net Change
-77.07 km²

Situation Snapshots

Imagery, commentary, and territorial changes from the period.

8 entries
Russian Forces Advance: 12.69 km²

Top Advance = 4.42km2, Middle Right Advance = 5.85km2, Bottom Advance = 2.42km2

Launching right back into the Pokrovsk front, Russian advances continued ramping up on Day 905. In the north, Russian assault groups captured the remainder of Zhuravka (top red dot), and clashed with Ukrainian troops at Krutyi Yar (under blue arrow). This advance has opened up the south side of Hrodivka for Russia to assault from, if they can cross the fields.

To the south, in an unexpected turn of events, Russian forces bypassed the Ukrainian trench network west of Mykolaivka, which I mentioned yesterday (No. 1 on pic), and managed to advance south along the treelines and capture a different trench network (No. 2 on pic), rapidly overwhelming the Ukrainian defenders. This advance means Russia has effectively severed the E50 highway between Pokrovsk and Karlivka, although there is another long route through Seledove. Ironically this also puts them into a position to capture the mine next to the slag heap outside Selydove, which another user asked me about in the last update. Russian command may be considering an attack on Selydove first, before they head for Pokrovsk, which I detailed in this comment.

Just to the east of here, Russian forces advanced south from Zhelanne, capturing Novozhelanne, and clashing with Ukrainian rearguard units. Ukrainian forces in this area, likely the 68th Jager, 25th Airborne, and 117th Mech brigades are currently in mass retreat, as their supply lines have been cut and the frontline partially collapsed. These units will likely not get encircled, however they are still taking casualties and losing equipment trying to stall Russian forces.
Russian Forces Advance: 0.81 km²

Advance = 0.81km2

Russian forces re-entered the northern side of Makiivka, having been forced out by Ukraine 2 weeks ago. Ukrainian forces will likely retreat to the west side of the village over the river, as they did last time when they first lost control of the eastern side.
Russian Forces Advance: 8.03 km²

Top Advance = 1.44km2, Middle Left Advance = 6.59km2

On the Vuhledar front, Russian forces made a series of large gains over the past few days. On top of capturing more of the fields on the north side, they overwhelmed Ukrainian forces in the trenches near the main road and captured a large area, including a foothold southeast of Vodyane. Ukraine will likely be forced to pull its units south of the O0532 road back to Vodyane to defend the town, as losing it will destabilise their positions across the whole area.

There is a thread on Twitter from a Ukrainian soldier regarding the 72nd Mech Brigade (holding this area of the front), and the abysmal state they are in. He describes unrealistic/suicidal orders, lack of reinforcements, lack of supplies, high casualties and poor morale of the Brigade, explaining why Russian forces are able to make gains despite having fewer troops. He even goes as far as to say the Chief of Staff got into a physical fight with the incompetent Deputy Commander, with the latter putting the former into a chokehold. Whilst this soldier could be exaggerating, what he described would partially explain the advances we have seen in this area.
Russian Forces Advance: 29.58 km²

Middle Advance = 1.07km2, Lower Middle Advance = 3.67km2, Lower Right Advance = 24.84km2

Back onto the Pokrovsk front, and the large gains continue for Russian forces. On the north side, Russian troops captured Krutyi Yar (mentioned Pic 1), and are reportedly already advancing west towards the mine. There are also reports that Novohrodivka is being shelled/bombed heavily, and clashes are already occurring in the town (explained in a comment below).

To the south, Ukrainian units are in full retreat. Russian forces captured Zavitne, following their capture of Novozhelanne the previous day (Pic 1). To the east, Ukrainian forces have retreated from the entire area east of the Vovcha river over the past 2 days in order to avoid being encircled, with Russian forces moving in to capture it. This gives Russia control over the small villages of Mezhove and Skuchne, as well as another crossing over the Vovcha river, securing their supply lines.

I’ve always cautioned against using this term as it tends to be sensationalist, but the situation here can best be described as a ‘collapse’ for Ukraine, at least a localised one. With supply routes cut, Russian assault groups advancing on them from behind their fortifications, and at a real risk of being encircled, Ukrainian units are having to retreat, giving up a large area.
Russian Forces Advance: 13.87 km²

Top Advance = 0.24km2, Bottom Advance = 13.63km2

Another of the big news items for today was the Russian capture of Niu-York. Ukraine began its withdrawal a few days ago, but Russia kept up the pressure the entire time, and have driven Ukraine out. On top of capturing the entire eastern area, and the remainder of the substation on the north side, Russian forces have taken over the remainder of the town, and are currently in the process of clearing it.

Additionally, Russian assault groups are hot on the tail of the retreating Ukrainian units, and are already clashing with them in Nelipivka (top red dot). Ukraine is unlikely to be able to hold this area, particularly due to the risk of being flanked, and will almost certainly have to retreat back to Toretsk or Leonidivka.
Russian Forces Advance: 0.90 km²

Advance = 0.90km2

South of Ivanivkse, Russian troops captured a few more fields, as they slowly try to clear the area east of the canal. Fighting in this area is quite low-intensity, as both sides have far more troops dedicated to Chasiv Yar (to the north).
Russian Forces Advance: 0.64 km²

Advance = 0.64km2

Following on from Pic 2, Russian forces captured most of the eastern side of Makiivka, as Ukrainian troops are driven back over the river. A small area still remains on the eastern side, however that will likely fall under Russian control in the next few days.
Russian Forces Advance: 10.55 km²

Top Advance = 9.98km2, Bottom Advance = 0.57km2

Around Pishchane (bottom red dot, not the top name), Russian forces continued their advance, captured a large area north of the river, and a small area south of it. This advance puts Russia within striking distance of the Oskil river, and the critical supply route running from Kupyansk. Russian forces may choose to expand their control of the fields north and south first, but the end goal will be for them to capture Hlushkivka (below the u) and Kolisnykivka.