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Post #91

RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 917 and 918 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Aug 29, 2024 — Aug 30, 2024 War Day 917–918

Many updates as lots is happening. I’m trying to keep up but it’s a ton of work, so may be more of a delay between posts than usual.

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Pictures 1 to 11 are from Day 917 (Thursday 29 August), and Pictures 12 to 15 are from Day 918 (Friday 30 August).

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A reminder that these maps are confirming updates from previous days (i.e. 12 to 48 hours delayed from each day).

Ukrainian Advance
7.02 km²
Overall (set): 7.02 km²
Russian Advance
59.38 km²
Net Change
-52.36 km²

Situation Snapshots

Imagery, commentary, and territorial changes from the period.

15 entries
Ukrainian Forces Advance: 6.33 km²

Top Advance = 1.15km2, Middle Advance = 3.77km2, Bottom Advance = 1.41km2

On the Kursk front, Ukrainian troops made a small amount of progress in a few different areas. On the north side, Ukrainian troops are making another attempt to capture Nechaev and Nizhnyaya Parovaya, taking a small foothold in both those settlements (they are next to each other). South of here, Ukrainian troops made some more progress around Martynovka, capturing some of the fields around the main road. To the south, Ukrainian troops re-entered Borki, as they attempt to capture it once again. Clashes are ongoing in this area.
Ukrainian Forces Advance: 0.69 km²

Left Advance = 0.08km2, Right Advance = 0.61km2

East of Vovchansk, Ukrainian troops were confirmed to have made a small amount of progress north of the Vovcha River, capturing some forest areas. When exactly this occurred is unknown, as little has change on the northern front since the Kursk offensive began, with both sides well dug in. Footage is also sparse due to how static the fighting is here.
Russian Forces Advance: 2.27 km²

Advance = 2.27km2

On the Kupyansk front, Russian soldiers were confirmed to have captured most of Synkivka, in an advance that saw little fanfare or videos of the fighting. Russian troops on this area of the front had been slowly moving towards the village for some time, but the quick capture of most of the settlement is quite unexpected, as it was well fortified. The remainder of the village is now in the greyzone, but will likely fall under Russian control over the next few days. This advance also puts Russia within striking distance of eastern Kupyansk, although they will have to capture the dense forest areas first.
Russian Forces Advance: 4.35 km²

Top Advance = 0.94km2, Middle Advance = 1.77km2, Bottom Advance = 1.64km2

On the Oskil River front, Russian troops continued making advances in several areas, capturing several fields on the north and south side of the small cauldron near Stelmakhivka, as well as further south near Dzherelne.
Russian Forces Advance: 7.58 km²

Top Advance = 0.47km2, Upper Advance = 0.15km2, Middle Advance = 2.65km2, Bottom Advance = 4.31km2

Just south of the advances in Picture 4, Russian troops also made large gains in several areas, capturing multiple fields east of Nevske, as well as a large field area east of Terny. The advances in Pics 4 and 5 are indicative of increased Russian attacks on the Oskil River front, as the ramp up pressure on Ukrainian forces and try force them to retreat back towards the river itself.
Russian Forces Advance: 0.27 km²

Advance = 0.27km2

On the Toretsk front, Russian troops captured more of Druzhba and the railway over the past 2 days. There is now only a small section of Druzhba left under Ukrainian control, with those troops likely to withdraw to some of the small trenchline further west, rather than be overrun and wiped out.
Russian Forces Advance: 0.98 km²

Advance = 0.98km2

Following on from the small advance mentioned in the previous update, Russian troops around Niu York have continued expanding their control of the area, capturing another field.
Russian Forces Advance: 12.72 km²

Top Advance = 0.34km2, Bottom Left Advance = 3.91km2, Bottom Middle Advance = 6.59km2, Bottom Right Advance = 1.88km2

On the Pokrovsk front, and the collapse of the frontline continues. On the north side, Russian troops made advance along the railway, as they start pushing north following their capture of Novohrodivka. They’ll also likely advance west towards Lysivka within the next week, in order to take advantage of the weak Ukrainian defences.

To the south, the battle for Selydove continues. The fight for the city would best be described as a confusing mess, a mishmash of Ukrainian units with no clear defensive plan being attacked by numerous small Russian assault groups, who have rushed deep into the settlement. From the limited information and footage we have (as both sides are too busy to post much), Russia controls about 30% of Selydove, and has reached the central area on both the south and north side of the river. There are many large apartment buildings here, which will have to be cleared or bypassed in order to capture the city, however it is not clear how many Ukraine are actually manning. The speed of Russian progress is very concerning for Ukraine, and they are likely to lose the city with the next 1 to 2 weeks if they cannot figure out a way to halt their advance. Additionally, Russia captured the last section of Mykhailivka, confirming full control of the village.

On the south side, as mentioned in my last update, Ukrainian troops in Karlivka were under threat of encirclement, and have been confirmed to have retreated further south to Halytsynivka today. Russia has advanced into Karlivka from the east, capturing the central part of the town as confirmed in this video. At the same time Russian assault groups continued advancing out of Memryk after capturing it last update, taking over a large portion of the fields and part of Halytsynivka, including the large trench network on the hill above the town. With Russian troops closing in from the northern heights, the remainder of Karlivka, and also Halytsynivka will fall under their control within the next day, as Ukrainian troops are simply unable to hold their positions.
Russian Forces Advance: 0.68 km²

Advance = 0.68km2

On the West Donetsk front, Russian troops made a small advance north of Urozhaine and Staromaiorske, increasing the buffers around the towns. This area of the front has been relatively calm since Russia captured Urozhaine a month and a half ago.
Russian Forces Advance: 0.50 km²

Advance = 0.50km2

In Kostyantynivka, following their capture of most of the settlement in the previous update, Russian troops have cleared the small residential suburb on the north side of the town over the past day. This advance means Russia now fully controls Kostyantynivka, and will now be able to continue advancing west on both the north and south sides of the Sukhi Yaly River. The assault of Katerynivka will be slightly complicated, as unlike Kostyantynivka and Novomykhailivka before it, Russia cannot simply surround the town on the south side due to the Solodka River.
Russian Forces Advance: 3.55 km²

Advance = 3.55km2

Following on from their closure of the small cauldron a few days ago, Russian troops have continued advancing in the Robotyne Salient, and have increased the northern buffer around the ruins of the village, capturing multiple fields. Ukraine has now lost most of their positions in the salient they captured during the 2023 counteroffensive, and are being progressively forced back. Russia has currently recaptured 2/3 of the salient, with the remainder likely to fall under their control within the next few months (pic below).
Russian Forces Advance: 7.10 km²

Top Advance = 0.79km2 , Top Middle Advance = 3.93km2, Top Right Advance = 1.20km2, Bottom Right Advance = 1.18km2

Back onto the Oskil River front, and Russia has made even more progress. Russian troops have advanced slightly further west and south of Pishchane (top middle dot), capturing multiple fields. They have also captured the fields east and west of Berestove, as Ukrainian troops are pushed further back.

To the south, Russian forces crossed the Zherebets River and captured most of Stelmakhivka. Whilst Russian sources claim full control of the village, there are still a number of buildings south and north of their advance which cannot be confirmed as Russian control just yet, so their claim is not true. They will likely establish full control over the next 2 days, as Ukrainian troops are unlikely to be able to hold the small remaining sections on the outskirts with Russian controlling the central area.
Russian Forces Advance: 16.45 km²

Advance = 16.45km2

Following on from Picture 8, Russian assault groups have made large gains as Ukraine continues to retreat. On top of capturing the remainder of Karlivka (seen here), Russian troops have also captured the entirety of Halytsynivka extremely quickly, as Ukrainian troops could not mount a defence of the town and were forces to retreat. As many people have mentioned, this advance provides Russia full control of the E50 highway, which leads from Donetsk City all the way through Pokrovsk, with an interchange into Selydove. This provides Russia a new major logistics route to supply its forces on the front, as well as eventually in Pokrovsk. However, they will have to increase the buffer around the highway and clear it of mines/debris before it can be used.

As I have been saying for many days now, the entire Ukrainian force east of the Vovcha River is in peril, and at real risk of being encircled if it does not retreat. Contrary to some Ukrainian sources’ claims, whilst some units are in retreat, a large portion of the Ukrainian force here is still continuing to hold their positions and continue operations, such as in the Nevelske and Krasnohorivka areas. From the information available the retreats in this area are, to borrow words from the fall of Avdiivka, “endured rather than ordered”. Ukrainian units are not coordinating with each other and command, and are falling back in some places, and trying to hold in others. Whilst encirclement will not happen quite yet, if Russia reaches Hirnyk and Kurakhivka, it will simply be too late to retreat.
Russian Forces Advance: 0.50 km²

Advance = 0.50km2

Near Pokrovsk, Russia troops crossed the Zhuravka River in Hrodivka, and captured most of the remainder of the town. Ukraine was unable to hold this area as despite there being a river as a defensive barrier, there were many crossing over it, and they had few buildings from which they could hold. The remaining section of Hrodivka will likely fall to Russian troops within the next 2 days, before they try assault the defence line just outside the town.
Russian Forces Advance: 2.43 km²

Top Advance = 0.98km2, Bottom Advance = 1.45km2

Following the capture of Kostyantynivka in Picture 10, Russian troops have captured several of the fields to the north, as they straighten the front along the main road. In the north near Pobjeda (middle red dot), Russian troops have also captured more of the fields to the west.

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Additional Item:

· I cannot comment on the alleged withdrawal of the 72nd Brigade from around Vuhledar, as there is simply too little information on it. For now it remains a claim, and does not make much sense given they are already embroiled in battles in that area, and it does not make sense to move them.

Russian sources claim that the 72nd Mech Brigade is likely being withdrawn due to heavy losses, and will be replaced by the 110th Mech Brigade (currently north of Novooleksandrivka), however this too is unconfirmed.