RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 927 to 930 of the War - Suriyakmaps

In Kursk, continuing on from their advances south of the Psel River last week, Ukrainian troops attacked Spalnoe and the surrounding fields, capturing most of them. This is the second time Ukraine has attacked Spalnoe, as they previously lost control of the village a little under 3 weeks ago. Russian troops still retain control of a small portion of the eastern side of the village, and are trying to hold the small forested areas whilst they wait for reinforcements from Krupets (next village east).

To the north, clashes began around Cherkasskaya Konopelka, as both sides vie for control of the area around the village. No identifiable changes in territory control here yet.

In Toretsk, Russian assault groups captured the prison and the surrounding buildings, after several days of fighting. I’ve mentioned it several times, but with Russia capturing most of the main road to the north of the prison, and closing in on the slag heap to the south , it was only a matter of time until Ukraine lost control of this area. Trying to hold the prison, when surrounded on multiple sides, and with Russia poised to obtain a height advantage right next door, is unfeasible.

Heavy clashes still continue in the rest of Toretsk, as Ukraine tries to contain Russia to the eastern side of the town.

On the Vuhledar front, Russian assaults groups have been attacking in multiple directions over the past few days, and have successfully advanced. On the north side, they managed to capture the entirety of Vodyane from assaults on the south and north sides of the town simultaneously. The weakened Ukrainian force (72nd Mech), in addition to the layout of the town, meant Russia was able to make progress quickly, and forced Ukraine to retreat west to the nearby coal mine, which is already being bombed.

At the same time as the events in Vodyane, separate Russian assault groups continued their attacks in the mine complex to the south, successfully capturing the complex as well as the slag heap next to it. The loss of the mine complex also enabled Russia to capture many of the fields to the south, as Ukrainian troops were driven back to Vuhledar.

On top of all this, a small group of Russian troops in Pavlivka (bottom red dot) crossed the Kashlahach River and established a foothold in the ruined warehouses. This advance is not nearly as dedicated as the other 2, however increases pressure on Ukrainian positions in Vuhledar all the same.

With these advances around Vuhledar, it is highly likely Ukraine will be unable to hold the town, and will be forced to retreat. Capturing the mine complex and slag heap provides Russian troops direct firing lines on Vuhledar’s northern supply route (through the fields), with its Western route already running close to Russian positions in Pavlivka. In addition to this, Russian advances into Prechystivka (off map west), and the capture of Vodyane open the way for Russian advances through the fields, further cutting off Vuhledar. Ukrainian command should begin evacuation preparations now if they want to preserve as much of their munitions and troops in Vuhledar as possible, however its uncertain if they will do this just yet, due to their history of holding positions for as long as possible (pic below).

North of the previous picture, Russian forces have begun advances west out of Kostyantynivka, increasing the buffer around the town. This comes after the 2 week break of the Russian units here after they captured Kostyantynivka at the end of August. Just north of here, Russian troops also made a small advance northwest of Pobjeda.

Following on from the previous update, Russian troops have cleared the westernmost part of Krasnogorivka, finally confirming full capture of the town. The battle for Krasnogorivka started on Day 735 (29 February 2024), lasting a little over 6 months, although there has been minimal fighting in the town since late July when Russia captured the main area. I don’t have a link to the map, as it was before I was posting Suriyak’s updates, when I did my area calculations and analysis on other people’s posts.

Krasnogorivka was significant in that it was a fortified Ukrainian stronghold very close to Donetsk city, and has lasted most of the civil war and the first 2 years of the current war, before finally falling to Russia. From here, Ukraine will almost certainly continue retreating back west towards the Vovcha River, as its positions in the fields west of Krasnogorivka are now untenable due to Russian control of the western suburbs (pic below).

Russian troops also crossed the river and entered the farm complex on the opposite side. They almost certainly already control this area, but this was occurring as Suriyak was making the update post, so was not 100% confirmed quite yet. It’ll likely be in the next update.

On the Pokrovsk front, following a 2 week break after the capture Novohrodivka, Russian troops began advancing west of the capturing the large field and expanded the buffer. Russia’s aim here looks to be the village of Lysivka (left blue dot), as its capture will help Russia take control of the fields north and south. There was also this video released by Russian media regarding Novohrodivka, which provides a great look at the state of the town, and relative lack of damage compared to other settlements in this war.

There was also a small advance on the eastern edge of Selydove, as footage confirmed Russia had captured a few houses near the railway. Heavy clashes continue elsewhere in the city.

On the Oskil River front, Russian troops captured more of Makiivka, and crossed to the western side of the Zherebets River. It is vital Ukraine drives them back across, as if Russia can maintain their foothold, the village will almost certainly fall under their control.

On the Kupyansk front, Russian troops began clearing the forest area west of Synkivka, as I mentioned previously, after their capture of the village a few days ago. To reiterate, Russia has to clear this forest up to the Oskil River, in order to secure their flanks for the inevitable assaults towards Kupyansk itself (bottom left blue dot).

The biggest event this week was the start of Russia’s counteroffensive on the Kursk front. Russian forces launched mechanised assaults on Ukraine’s western flank from both Korenevo (north) and Kulbaki (west), hitting Ukrainian positions in multiple areas simultaneously. A video of the northern mechanised force’s attack on Snagost, by the 51st Parachute Regiment, can be seen here. Russian forces smashed into Ukrainian positions across this area, and rapidly overwhelmed them, capturing 6 different villages (Gordeevka, Viktorovka, Vnezapnoe, Byakhovo, Apanasovka and Krasnooktyabrskoe), and forcing surviving Ukrainian troops to retreat from a further 2 (Snagost and Vishnevka).

This counteroffensive caught Ukrainian units in this area, the 103rd Territorial Defence, 82nd Air Assault and 22nd Mechanised Brigades off-guard, and has led to a significant territorial gain for Russia. Many videos of the first 2 days of the Russian counteroffensive have been released, showing a large number of (Video 1, Video 2) and killed (Video 1, Video 2, Video 3, Video 4) Ukrainian soldiers, who were unable to withstand the Russian attacks. There are a lot more videos and photos than this, but this should be enough for you to understand the outcome. From the current (as of this update) reports, Russian forces are not slowing down, and are continuing their assaults east in order to take advantage of the initial successes.

Those of you who have been reading my comments and analysis for some time will not be surprised by these events (the speed of the advance), as I have repeatedly mentioned that the lack of large numbers of trenches, dugouts and ditches (as seen on other fronts), means territory can be captured and lost very quickly in Kursk. I won’t go into it again here (you can click the link above if you want more detail), but suffice to say that Russia is fully utilising the terrain and lack of defences to push Ukraine back.

Suriyak has left the middle area as grey zone as he is being conservative with his reporting (as there isn’t 100% confirmation of Russian control quite yet), however Russia likely captured Snagost and Vishnevka here as well.

On the north side of the Kursk front, a small number of Ukrainian soldiers were spotted in Vetreno, likely a reconnaissance team that crossed the river over the small pedestrian bridge.

To the southeast, Russian troops crossed the Psel River from the north and recaptured Borki for a second time. This advance also forced Ukraine to abandon Spalnoe (captured Picture 1), as the loss of Borki meant there were no roads (proper or dirt), that linked Spalnoe to their supply lines. Rather than wait to be encircled or starved of supplies, they made the logical decision to leave the village. This advance isn’t part of the counteroffensive, and is related to the back and forth fighting that has been ongoing in this area for weeks.

On the Selydove front, Russian assault groups made progress in the fields north of Ukrainsk, capturing them and getting within 1km of one of the two last supply roads into the town. Additionally, Ukrainian assault groups in Ukrainsk made some small progress on the east and south side, capturing more of the apartment buildings. Ukrainian forces in the town will almost certainly have to retreat within the next few days, as their remaining supply routes, both of which run dangerously close to Russian lines, are under threat (pic below). This video of Lisivka (next to Ukrainsk) also shows some of the heavy shelling by Russian troops of the town

Following on from Picture 9, Russian assault groups continued their counteroffensive in the Kursk region. On top of confirming control of the greyzone seen in the previous picture, Russian troops have also begun advancing out of Korenevo from the north, capturing a large area of fields. Additionally, Russia continued their attacks into the night as they chased Ukrainian troops west, taking over the village of Obukhovka (under the r) in a rapid assault. Ukraine is still scrambling to respond, as it has lost many of the troops that were originally holding this flank, with even more confirmed captured and killed today.

On the north side, Russia recaptured the remainder of Olgovka, with Ukrainian troops beginning their retreat from this northern area due to the risk of encirclement. I believe one of Russia’s short term goals here is to reach the Snagost River (as a stopping point), and establish fire control over the main road supplying Ukrainian troops in the north (pic below).

Following on from Picture 2, Russian assault groups made some small progress west of the prison, capturing several buildings.

Following on from Picture 10, Russian assault groups launched attacks on the villages of Sukhyi Yar and Lysivka, to the northwest of Novohrodivka. The outcome of these assaults is unknown as of Suriyak posting the update, hence the greyzone, but we should have more information within the next day.

On the Selydove/Kurakhove front, Ukrainian troops continued their retreat from the areas west of the Vovcha River. Russian troops have followed closely behind them, capturing a large area of fields, as the ‘pocket’ in this area is gradually closed. Even with Ukraine retreating here, Russian troops cannot simply rush through this area, as Ukraine still has rearguard forces covering their retreat, and there are many mines/boobytraps to clear before they can move forward safely.

Its unclear at the moment whether Ukraine intends to hold the line at Zhelanne Pershe and Zhelanne Druhe, or will abandon them in favour of holding the west side of the Vovcha River only.

Over in Ukrainsk, Russian assault groups have made more progress on the northeast and southeast sides of the town, capturing the remaining fields there and many of the apartment buildings. Ukrainian troops are likely already in the process of retreating from the town, due to the threat of being cut off, as mentioned in Picture 10. Thus, Russia will likely capture the remainder of the town within the next 2 days, as Ukraine pulls back to Tsukuryne.

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Additional point:

Russia has begun using their large UCAVs (Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle, i.e. really big drones) in the Kursk region. This has been confirmed with multiple videos (Video 1, Video 2, Video 3, Video 4, Video 5) of strikes by Forpost-R and Orion UCAVs on Ukrainian vehicles, with many tanks being hit.
This is notable, as UCAVs have seen very little usage by both sides since early in the war, as they are large, relatively slow aircraft that are very vulnerable to AA of all kinds, from long-range to MANPADs. Russia has mostly used its Orion’s as long-range recon, rather than risk them being destroyed when smaller, cheaper drones could do the same job.
This change in UCAV usage in Kursk is indicative of a deteriorated Ukrainian air defence network in the region, as they have either lost, or been forced to pull back, most of their AA, enabling Russian UCAVs to become far more active. Their usage will increase pressure on Ukrainian troops in Kursk, as its yet another aerial system (on top of FPVs, Lancets and UMPK Fabs) that will wreak havoc on their equipment and troops concentrations.